China Corona Virus Outbreak

[Monseratto]

There's over 8,000 test backlog... DOH estimat around 10 percent with be positive.

DOH: Lung Center scales down testing amid staggering COVID-19 samples | Inquirer News

[dr. d]

PH has ‘flattened the curve’, says epidemiologist
Via The Inquirer Mobile App:
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in my own opinion,
we haven't flattened the curve yet,
if our number of new cases per day,
is more than the number of new recoveries per day.
again, this is my simplistic way of looking at things.
those with other opinions, kindly chime in.

[dr. d]

There's over 8,000 test backlog... DOH estimat around 10 percent with be positive.

DOH: Lung Center scales down testing amid staggering COVID-19 samples | Inquirer News

for significant herd immunity to kick in, current literature suggests it'd have to be 70-80%.

what is our current doubling rate?
we can then compute the time when we can theoretically achieve significant herd immunity.

but does this mean, i'll go out sans mask come herd immunity day?
nope. i'll still mask on!
heh heh.

[Monseratto]

Singapore passes a omnimous number... but still has the fewest death vs infection of just 18.


Number of coronavirus cases crosses 20,000 in Singapore with 788 new infections, Singapore News & Top Stories - The Straits Times

Looking at the worldmeter Singapore has already tested 143,919 and has over 20,000 positive cases.

Philippines has tested 132,689 and has less than 10k cases....

[Monseratto]

Just passed 10k

[Flipo]

in my own opinion,
we haven't flattened the curve yet,
if our number of new cases per day,
is more than the number of new recoveries per day.
again, this is my simplistic way of looking at things.
those with other opinions, kindly chime in.

Doc medyo same kayo ng opinion ni Dr. Benjamin Co

“We are not bending the curve,” warns Dr. Co, a pharmacologist as well. DOH’s website has a linear graph of daily new cases, recoveries and deaths. In Dr. Co’s blog a logarithmic scale shows the doubling time of infectees. From an exponential growth every 7.2 days as of May 1, decision makers can plot weeks ahead.

Ready or not for lifting of COVID-19 lockdown? | Philstar.com


Relative Joy – I'm writing this for you

[uls]

in my own opinion,
we haven't flattened the curve yet,
if our number of new cases per day,
is more than the number of new recoveries per day.
again, this is my simplistic way of looking at things.
those with other opinions, kindly chime in.

if we go back to the meaning of "flatten the curve" which is to keep the number of infections below the country's healthcare capacity so hospitals don't get overwhelmed



i don't know... i haven't come across news recently where emergency rooms are full of patients with fever and cough and respiratory distress and dead bodies wrapped in blankets in corridors

though yes i heard puno ang mga ICU

[uls]

ang nangyari kasi para sa karamihan ung meaning ng "flatten the curve" naging "no more new cases"

paalala lang po hindi yan ang goal ng flatten the curve

nobody said flatten the curve will prevent new infections

it's only to slow down the infections

push it further into the future

[dr. d]

ang nangyari kasi para sa karamihan ung meaning ng "flatten the curve" naging "no more new cases"

"no more new cases" !!
yeigh!
that means,
the virus has left the country!

i prefer that to flattening any curve, any day!!!

ok. somebody wake me up.

[uls]

kung may abilidad lang tayo makita ang parallel universe kung saan hindi tayo nag-ECQ...

[dr. d]

kung may abilidad lang tayo makita ang parallel universe kung saan hindi tayo nag-ECQ...

...at isang parallel universe where we practiced an honest-to-goodness ECQ...

truthfully speaking,
had we done so, the virus would have burned itself out by now.
unfortunately, one look at our depressed areas, and we would have tsked-tsked and shaken our heads...

[Verbl Kint]

DOH COVID-19 CASE BULLETIN #053

As of 4PM today, May 6, 2020, the Department of Health reports 320 new cases (PH9685-PH10004) of COVID-19. NCR with additional 179 new cases, Region 7 with an additional 98 new cases and 43 new cases from different Regions. The total number of cases in the country is now at 10,004.

DOH also announces 98 new recoveries. This brings the total number of recoveries to 1,506.

_

[dr. d]

DOH COVID-19 CASE BULLETIN #053

As of 4PM today, May 6, 2020, the Department of Health reports 320 new cases (PH9685-PH10004) of COVID-19. NCR with additional 179 new cases, Region 7 with an additional 98 new cases and 43 new cases from different Regions. The total number of cases in the country is now at 10,004.

DOH also announces 98 new recoveries. This brings the total number of recoveries to 1,506.

_

i wonder,
where are the 10,004 - 1,506 - 658 = 7,840 cases that haven't recovered yet?
how many are quarantined at home, how many are in the hospital, and how many are in the intensive care unit?

[uls]

...at isang parallel universe where we practiced an honest-to-goodness ECQ...

truthfully speaking,
had we done so, the virus would have burned itself out by now.
unfortunately, one look at our depressed areas, and we would have tsked-tsked and shaken our heads...

the gov't went into the ECQ unprepared

ideally you should take infected people from the community and put them facilities (home quarantine doesn't work in PH unlike HK, SK)

pumasok tayo sa ECQ without enough testing capacity and without quarantine facilities

during the ECQ nag build up ng testing capacity + quarantine facilities

pero kulang pa

now we're leaving ECQ with the virus still burning thru communities

[dhisky]

I'm not good in numbers pero how can these experts say that we have flatten the curve if wala pa ata 5% ng population ang na ttest?

[shadow]

So sinasabi ninyo mali ang DOH?


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[dr. d]

there can be several interpretations to the same set of numbers.

[dhisky]

kung may abilidad lang tayo makita ang parallel universe kung saan hindi tayo nag-ECQ...

How about those countries na hindi na impose ng lockdowns like Sweden?

They're first world though.

Parang sa basketball lang yan statistic vs eye test.

Since unreliable ang data, i'll go with eye test this time, as long as walang tsunami of patients going to the hospitals and wala tayong mga patay na nakikita sa kalsada, we're still good.

[uls]

I'm not good in numbers pero how can these experts say that we have flatten the curve if wala pa ata 5% ng population ang na ttest?

ang basehan ng flatten the curve is if you were able to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed

hindi basehan ang ilan natest

[uls]

How about those countries na hindi na impose ng lockdowns like Sweden?

They're first world though.

Parang sa basketball lang yan statistic vs eye test.

Since unreliable ang data, i'll go with eye test this time, as long as walang tsunami of patients going to the hospitals and wala tayong mga patay na nakikita sa kalsada, we're still good.

yup

agree ako we're not doing too badly

di naman tulad ng mga wuhan videos napanood natin... ung overwhelmed hospitals... people collapsing on the street