Philippine Economy Talk

[Ry_Tower]

A hypothetical question - what if a 2nd wave and a 3rd wave happen? Will it not overwhelm the healthcare system and spike the curve up? In this scenario, lifting the ECQ will end up screwing the economy more.

In my own selfish way, why support a government who runs this country like a family business? Let the economy crumble so people will realize there is a need for a leadership change.

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Kawawa kasi ang ordinaryong tao at yung mga healthcare personnel. Kaya need talaga combination ng mass testing, to check hot spot areas and to raise awareness and fear -in a good deterrent way - sa mga tao dun at quarantine facilities.

If hindi naman kasi critical or severe at puro mga asymptomatic lang yung mga natest din somehow good news yun. Iquarantine sila para hindi na manghawa plus give some form of freedom para sa mga tao sa areas na yun para makapagtrabaho na. Yes to reduced movements and operations sa areas na mataas pa positive cases pero hindi yung full shutdown mode.

Yun dapat gawin ng national at local govt para kahit papano hindi sobrang costly sa part nila and at the same time hindi magiging sobra reliance ng mga tao sa ayuda. The government must find a middle ground na kasi sobrang tagal na 2 months.

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[uls]

A hypothetical question - what if a 2nd wave and a 3rd wave happen? Will it not overwhelm the healthcare system and spike the curve up? In this scenario, lifting the ECQ will end up screwing the economy more.

that's not hypothetical

that will happen

you reopen the economy while there's still a highly contagious virus spreading more people will definitely get infected and about 10% will develop severe symptoms and need hospitalization

that's why the gov't should build up healthcare capacity during the lockdown to be ready when the economy is reopens

mild cases should be put quarantine centers instead of hospitals so hospitals will have room for severe cases only

are there enough quarantine centers? probably not

are there enough ICUs/ventilators? probably not

the healthcare system is not overwhelmed now but can it be overwhelmed when the economy reopens? YES

then the gov't implements another lockdown

this is modeling from imperial london back in March

they project on again off again gov't intervention all the way out to 2021



i will reply to the other half of your post later

[uls]

continuation:

In my own selfish way, why support a government who runs this country like a family business? Let the economy crumble so people will realize there is a need for a leadership change.

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if the economy "crumbles" the public won't be blaming the gov't

everyone knows it's due to the virus

and everyone will see naman that it's not only PH that suffers a recession

it's global

[Monseratto]

Just to think 2 months ago, job security wasn't an issue Now millions are out of work, with little prospect makakuha sila ng job agad. Maraming tao will develop mental problems because of this.

[uls]

the longer you maintain the lockdown the harder it is for the economy to bounce back

people are using their savings during lockdown

when the economy reopens people aren't going shopping agad

they'll be rebuilding their savings

that's for those who still have a job to go back to

-

companies have cut capex

that's gonna reverberate all throughout the economy

[dreamur]

continuation:




if the economy "crumbles" the public won't be blaming the gov't

everyone knows it's due to the virus

and everyone will see naman that it's not only PH that suffers a recession

it's global

And if the economy remains relatively stable inspite of the pandemic, everyone will be praising the government, right? PHP is still stable, right? Credit rating is still good, right? So why extend the lockdown and risk a blacklash? So the lifting is purely to save face and avoid a public outrage. Let's deal with wave 2 when it comes later.

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[BlancNoir]

the longer you maintain the lockdown the harder it is for the economy to bounce back

people are using their savings during lockdown

when the economy reopens people aren't going shopping agad

they'll be rebuilding their savings

that's for those who still have a job to go back to

-

companies have cut capex

that's gonna reverberate all throughout the economy

HA! you underestimate the common Filipinos' mindset and spending habits! Mga galit sa pera!

Anyhow, for the economy to bounce back, we should capitalise on what we do best: service. kaso social distancing so nada!

so 2nd best which is the industrial sector. Sana the gov will prioritise this sector and yung funding nila for services, malipat sana bulk dito.

3rd contributor is agriculture. If only we can restart the agriculture sector of the PH, at least we wont rely much on imports. For sure our GDP will bounce back in no time.

[Ry_Tower]

continuation:




if the economy "crumbles" the public won't be blaming the gov't

everyone knows it's due to the virus

and everyone will see naman that it's not only PH that suffers a recession

it's global

Unless its politicized beyond what is truly chargeable to the administration.

Some of the problems are still because of the missteps of the government. Not all of this is due to the virus alone.

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[uls]

And if the economy remains relatively stable inspite of the pandemic, everyone will be praising the government, right? PHP is still stable, right? Credit rating is still good, right? So why extend the lockdown and risk a blacklash? So the lifting is purely to save face and avoid a public outrage. Let's deal with wave 2 when it comes later.

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every government had to spend more money coz of this virus

US



di ko alam ano ang point mo at ano ang dapat

hindi ba dapat gumastos nang malaki ang gobyerno natin to make up for the lost economic activity from the private sector?

ung pera na dapat nag circulate sa economy since mid-March nawala

the least the gov't can do is replace some of the money to keep the economy alive

we're not even talking about stimulus

it's emergency blood tranfusion due to massive blood loss

the gov't is considering lifting ECQ coz hindi na talaga kaya

the gov't cannot support the economy by itself

di niya kaya bigyan nang bigyan ng pera mga tao na walang sweldo habang lockdown

--

ano ang dapat?

extend lockdown para hindi mag 2nd wave?

as if hindi na-consider ng gobyerno na pwede mag second wave

paulit ulit minemention sa TV ang 2nd wave tuwing may gov't official na iniinterview

sabi nga ng isang tsikot member mahirap ung desisyon

[uls]

HA! you underestimate the common Filipinos' mindset and spending habits! Mga galit sa pera!

Anyhow, for the economy to bounce back, we should capitalise on what we do best: service. kaso social distancing so nada!

so 2nd best which is the industrial sector. Sana the gov will prioritise this sector and yung funding nila for services, malipat sana bulk dito.

3rd contributor is agriculture. If only we can restart the agriculture sector of the PH, at least we wont rely much on imports. For sure our GDP will bounce back in no time.

rosy theoretical stuff

i'll just wait for econ data

Q1 -0.2%

Q2 is already in deep contraction

Q3 will be struggling (that is if there's no lockdown)

and Q4?

Christmas season 2020 will be far from previous Christmas seasons

--

OFW remittances (one of the main drivers of the economy) will definitely be reduced this year

[BlancNoir]

rosy theoretical stuff

i'll just wait for econ data

Q1 -0.2%

Q2 is already in deep contraction

Q3 will be struggling (that is if there's no lockdown)

and Q4?

Christmas season 2020 will be far from previous Christmas seasons

--

OFW remittances (one of the main drivers of the economy) will definitely reduced this year

all theoretical kasi ongoing pa yung pandemic - and that's the best we can do for now.

OFW remittance sa tingin ko will surely be up kasi wala silang choice but to send money to their families sa Pinas na nawalan ng kabuhayan BUT that is if the OFWs abroad get to keep their jobs and hindi ma lay off.

Now we know anong industry ang recession/pandemic/apocalypse? proof.

Essentials like food mfg, supermarkets, pharmacy, and POGO.

[uls]

all theoretical kasi ongoing pa yung pandemic - and that's the best we can do for now.

OFW remittance sa tingin ko will surely be up kasi wala silang choice but to send money to their families sa Pinas na nawalan ng kabuhayan BUT that is if the OFWs abroad get to keep their jobs and hindi ma lay off.

Now we know anong industry ang recession/pandemic/apocalypse? proof.

Essentials like food mfg, supermarkets, pharmacy, and POGO.

saan manggagaling ang ipapadala ng mga OFW dami nawalan ng trabaho

maybe you forgot buong mundo humina hindi lang Pinas

nasa news araw araw dami OFW gusto umuwi wala trabaho

-

as it is now madami company hindi maka singil ng utang kasi mga customer nila wala income

kuryente, tubig, telco, bangko etc lahat yan hindi muna maka collection

[uls]

tatandaan ko ang page na ito

iko-quote ko mga post dito months from now

[BlancNoir]

saan manggagaling ang ipapadala ng mga OFW dami nawalan ng trabaho

maybe you forgot buong mundo humina hindi lang Pinas

nasa news araw araw dami OFW gusto umuwi wala trabaho

-

as it is now madami company hindi maka singil ng utang kasi mga customer nila wala income

kuryente, tubig, telco, bangko etc lahat yan hindi muna maka collection

"IF they get to keep their jobs" hehe

Nakakalungkot isipin yung macro effect ng pandemic na to.

Kawawa mga manufacturers ng non food fmcg.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

tatandaan ko ang page na ito

iko-quote ko mga post dito months from now

was about to say this! Wanna wager at the end of year? USD remittances will be up akin, down sayo. hehe

[dreamur]

Let the economy crumble for all I care. Matira ang matibay. Purge this country with all the undesirable and stupid citizens. You can quote me on that.

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[uls]

was about to say this! Wanna wager at the end of year? USD remittances will be up akin, down sayo. hehe

sige

pustahan real money

ako down compared to 2019

sayo up

[uls]

meron tsikot member nag post the other day nag bounce ang cheke ng tenant niya (correct me if im wrong)

that represents all landlords out there

either talbog cheke or huwag muna ideposit

ung income sana ng mga landlord na gagastusin sana ibang bagay nawala

ung kikita sana sa gastos ng mga landlord nawalan din ng kita

and so on...

lahat interconnected

hindi mahirap mag imagine

na-heart attack ang economy

[BlancNoir]

sige

pustahan real money

ako down compared to 2019

sayo up

pwede ba sugal dito? baka ma ban tayo. hahaha

[shadow]

tatandaan ko ang page na ito

iko-quote ko mga post dito months from now

Uls para kang Crocodile meron long term memory daw.

Pwede ka merging hired killer. Papatayin na lang yun kaaway after a long time para malamig na issue

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[uls]

pwede ba sugal dito? baka ma ban tayo. hahaha

hehe

sige no real money

basta we'll see later this year