Philippine Economy Talk

[BlancNoir]

heard that rice is smuggled from malaysia to the southern provinces kaya nasanay mga tao sa cheap rice

no farmer and legit rice trader can compete with smuggled rice coz it's so cheap

then bigla nawala ang smuggled rice

kaya nagka rice shortage

I can attest to this.

I hail from the south and marami ngang rice smugglers doon.

From VN and Malaysia. Head smuggler is from Cebu. Bagsakan sa Mindanao? you guessed it. Davao.

[minicarph]

Again, rising food prices are know to topple governments

governments will try to prevent it at all cost

all populist leaders react the same to rising prices

subsidies and price controls -- to pacify the masses

but subsidies increase govt debt

govt increases borrowing

govt raises taxes

-

price controls lead to shortages

so who does the govt go after?

businesses

-

why do you need to follow markets?

you look for signs

for what?

to know when to get your capital out of the country before the govt imposes capital controls

get it?

capital controls?

as things deteriorate, the local currency's value will keep falling

tendency is people will convert local currency to dollars to preserve value

strong demand for dollars = dollar scarcity

as dollar reserves fall to dangerous levels the govt will limit the amount of dollars you can withdraw

pag lalo ba tumaas rice magmumura na ang baril, budget ko lang sana isa this year pero kung babagsak presyo ng baril coz walang demand coz people will go back to basics, bile pa ako ng isang Glock 17 salpakan ko ng Micro Roni Gen 4

hindi naman ako apektado sa rice, kasi hindi na man ako kumakain ng rice gano sa meals

[A121]

Again, rising food prices are know to topple governments

governments will try to prevent it at all cost

all populist leaders react the same to rising prices

subsidies and price controls -- to pacify the masses

but subsidies increase govt debt

govt increases borrowing

govt raises taxes

-

price controls lead to shortages

so who does the govt go after?

businesses

-

why do you need to follow markets?

you look for signs

for what?

to know when to get your capital out of the country before the govt imposes capital controls

get it?

capital controls?

as things deteriorate, the local currency's value will keep falling

tendency is people will convert local currency to dollars to preserve value

strong demand for dollars = dollar scarcity

as dollar reserves fall to dangerous levels the govt will limit the amount of dollars you can withdraw

I think we are still on a reasonable level when compared to other countries that entered crises. What do you think?

[uls]

I think we are still on a reasonable level when compared to other countries that entered crises. What do you think?

well there are several EM economies in worse shape than us

[uls]

but things can go south really fast if something crazy happens like du30 not finishing his term and transition gets messy

dollar exodus happens fast

[A121]

but things can go south really fast if something crazy happens like du30 not finishing his term and transition gets messy

dollar exodus happens fast

Oo nga eh. Pag sabi ng foreign funds sell ph, sell ph talaga. Wala tayong pansalo dyan. Aasahan lang yung remittance (until now)

Though, parang wala namang economic policy (up to this point) na sadyang hindi sound. Unless haha

[uls]

Gov. Nestor Espenilla Jr.: We are very committed to revert the inflation path to target.

this i gotta see

[uls]

so will we see 6% inflation in the next data release?

i think we will

[Monseratto]

BSP, analysts expect inflation to hit 9-year high in August - CNN Philippines

Economists from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) peg inflation to fall at 5.9 percent, or between 5.5 to 6.2 percent in August. This would put inflation at its highest in nine years.

[Monseratto]

Hehehe... For health reasons daw.