Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

that's the goal of raising rates

discourage borrowing --> slow down credit creation --> lessen money in circulation --> slow down inflation rate

but BSP is afraid to be too aggressive coz they don't wanna kill growth

[dreamur]

that's the goal of raising rates

discourage borrowing --> slow down credit creation --> lessen money in circulation --> slow down inflation rate

but BSP is afraid to be too aggressive coz they don't wanna kill growth

Exactly uls. We want to project GROWTH under this administration, right?

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[uls]

yes the govt says they have a 7-8 percent growth target

[uls]

having that growth target is probably why the BSP is not stepping hard on the brakes

[dreamur]

having that growth target is probably why the BSP is not stepping hard on the brakes

And that I believe is the answer to your burning question my friend.

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[A121]

ImHO increasing interest rates will translate to borrowers defaulting on their existing loans or lowering of appetite for investing in real estate or buying new cars. The banks will end up owning a huge chunk of properties which will bring market prices down. Then the bubble will burst.


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Not at this point in time.

What you should look at is an increase in unemployment and decrease in real wages.

[baludoy]

7.7 % inflation in the armm region. [emoji33] No wonder people are getting jittery over there

do what you gotta do so you can do what you wanna do

[minicarph]

if nobody deployed capital to build something or put up a business manual labor will be sitting around playing tong-its



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there's too much money in circulation

one contributor you cannot ignore is the large salary increase in PNP and AFP (which started in January this year)

suddenly hundreds of thousands of households have more money to spend

kaw na din nagsabi there's too much money in circulation, meaning there is capital. hinde kasi kelangan kumita ang lahat ng capital na nakapaikot ngaun sa Pilipinas, ang kelangan lang 20%, hence the 20 80 Rule or the Pareto Principle.

so kung say 100 Billion ang floating, kahit malugi 80 Billion nun, yun 20 Billion na area ng economy ang magpapalago sa economy.

it has always been like that. the call center industry was like a minority when it started (circa 2000 to 2003) maybe not even 20% of GDP, pero kitam mo ngaun, it's a big industry nasa atin


just have faith, let the BSP do their work. they have more data than any of you private analyzers. kasi kayo pera lang ang habol nyo eh, businessmen kayo eh. pero ang BSP holistic ang approach, meaning as a whole, public, private, welfare etc.

ako ever since holistic ang approach ko sa buhay. I knew what happened in 2008, kaya yan ang bi-nuild ko since, protection sa inflation.

kayo ngaun utang ako ng utang, kasi tanggap ko naman sa sarile ko when the going gets tough for the Philippines, me and wife can stay in a 2 bedroom apartment with just one sofa, one induction stove, one smart tv, one bed, 1 cr etc. napanood ko yan sa Total Recall the reboot, yun kay Kate Beckinsale, i can live in that small apartment as long as the essentials are there to make me bounce back

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pero kung madami kayo business / properties na expense trap, paktay talaga sya economy nato. coz the overhead will eat all your resources. mahirap talaga pag ang basis ng existence and respect nyo is puro materialism or assets.

the mind and body are an asset of its own. look at celebrities or artists, they dont own all the good and expensive stuff and yet laway at picture picture lang sa instragram they can easily recover. but materialistic business people mahirap talaga, kasi kung wala yan lahat ng properties or assets nyo, ano na kayo diba? can your smile earn money? hinde, pero si anne curtis and erwan pwede hihihi. but am not sayiing kelangan maging celeb kayo, dapat lang may face value kayo, yun tipong sa tindig nyo pa lang katiwatiwala kayo. but how? most people just invested in materialistic things. that doesnt add any aura to your whole being.

[minicarph]

Exactly uls. We want to project GROWTH under this administration, right?

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exactly we need to project growth. in the news, in 2019 we will be the first to roll out 5G. I mean hows that for prestige and being the first. we're gonna be faster than any 1st world out there, even Japan. for a country who has always been criticized for having the slowest internet in the world, now were gonna pioneer in 5G.

I think even those who enjoy 1000mpbs internet right now like for example Germany, we will get an audience coz of this news.

so doom and gloom nyo, wag na pls. it's just self-fulfilling prophecy. if you always think that things will go wrong, it will go wrong, for you. but not for us, coz we see a brighter future. us DDS and the 16M who voted for him

[StockEngine]

totoo kaya to?
Mabilis na paglago ng ekonomiya at pagbaba ng unemployment, ibinida ng NEDA at Dept. of Finance - YouTube


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[Monseratto]

The reversal of fund flows in recent months has been prompted primarily by the tightening of monetary policy in the US as the Federal Reserve continues to unwind its quantitative easing scheme that has been in place over the last decade.

PH dollar reserves fall to six-year low as outflows continue | Inquirer Business

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[uls]

PH dollar reserves fall to six-year low as outflows continue | Inquirer Business

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like i posted in the other thread:

BIG PICTURE

dollars flowing back to the US

rest of the world is slowing down

that's basically what's going on

[dreamur]

2 years ago...

PH foreign reserves hit two-year high of $83.47B in April

Change has come...

[minicarph]

pero aside from call center that brings dollars, ang isa pa pabrika natin eh dollar earning OFW.
so i doubt that long term ang effect ng dollar tightening ng US sa mundo

and with our great President great timing sa partnership with China, we could do xdeals in some tradeable things and just bypass the dolar

napansin ko na to sa mga products na ship from abroad from Lazada and Shopee, sobrang mura parang walang exchange rate, as in mas mura pa sa binondo / divisoria retail shop

Andyan lang naman sa tabi factory ng mundo so aiguro sabi ng intsik mag secret deal na lang tayo sa mga pinoy, ignoring the intricacies of dollar exchange

I talked to some soldiers some 3 months back, when Russian ship went here they bartered AK47s for our toopx in exchange for export quality bananas

[A121]

but we're overcompliant...

so BSP has to lower RRR

bad timing

I think the more correct term would be we will be less competitive in the region due to higher rrr.

[jut703]

The poor peso is really hurting businesses.

We delivered our strongest year in 5 years and surpassed targets, yet profitability is down due to forex.

Higher sales are just being eaten up by higher import costs. The economy can only absorb so much so the peso needs to turn soon.

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[BlancNoir]

The poor peso is really hurting businesses.

We delivered our strongest year in 5 years and surpassed targets, yet profitability is down due to forex.

Higher sales are just being eaten up by higher import costs. The economy can only absorb so much so the peso needs to turn soon.

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i think we lost between 8 to 9 % to the dollar.

Imagine 9% in terms of billions.

[jonski]

ANg dami nakikinabang na employment ngayon. Lahat kita ko sa factory babaan lahat van para pumasok mga tuwang tuwang mga chinese workers.

[BlancNoir]

ANg dami nakikinabang na employment ngayon. Lahat kita ko sa factory babaan lahat van para pumasok mga tuwang tuwang mga chinese workers.

BTW, speaking of chinese immigrants, and daming junkets ngayon na pwedeng sideline.

Hatid-sundo lang sa airport. Mga ex-pat from mainland.

Sila rin reason kaya tumataas properties.

[Monseratto]

Philippines' trade deficit rises to 5-mth high in May | Reuters

Lesser car imports I guess...hehehe

Imports grew 11.4 percent in May, slower than the previous month’s revised 23.1 percent annual pace, while exports declined 3.8 percent in May, less than the previous month’s revised 4.9 percent contraction.

That resulted in a trade deficit of $3.7 billion in May, which was wider than the previous month’s revised deficit of$3.48 billion and the biggest after last December’s $4 billion.

Hefty purchases of fuel, iron and steel, electronic products, telecommunication equipment and electric machinery overseas fuelled import growth in May.

The import-driven trade gap is expected to worsen the Philippines’ current account deficit this year, which could put further pressure on the peso, one of Asia’s worst performers so far this year.

The Philippines, like other Asian economies that have external deficits, is under pressure to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in shifting away from low interest rate settings or risk capital flight as investors seek higher yielding assets.

The central bank raised interest rates last month for the second time in six weeks, becoming the region’s second central bank to deliver two hikes in a short time, after Indonesia.