Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

So for the bsp to raise interest rates is to discourage debt , and therefore lalo lang maapaektjhan ang mkmentum ng Pilipino, eh this is the first time na nakaka experience ng economic growth and it is advertised sa mundo. So not to disrupt that momentum is to bring more debt.

yun na nga pero nagrereklamo mga tao pataas nang pataas ang presyo ng bilihin

side effect kasi yan ng too much credit creation --> too much money created chasing limited supply of goods

so ano gagawin ng BSP?

kung hinayaan nila mangutang nang mangutang mga tao at kompanya prices will keep going up

kung gawin nila mas mahal ang cost of borrowing hihina naman ang economy

balancing act yan eh

[uls]

pero tingin ko sa BSP they're too cautious not to kill growth

hinayaan nila letting the economy run hot

you need new money creation to service previously created debt

--

ung doom and gloom na sinasabi mo OB galing yan sa reaction ng mga tao sa pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin, paghina ng piso, pagbaba ng stock market

non-stop media reporting tungkol diyan kaya there's this air of gloom

pero if you ignore the news and just go out you'll see things look fine

kahit mas mataas na ang presyo ng gas at diesel madami parin sasakyan sa kalye

people are going out

people are spending

i go out almost every night it definitely doesn't look like the economy is in the "doldrums"

[Ry_Tower]

Check air fares. Days before flight may sale pa din. Before, double na dapat presyo.

The things that is most affected are not the basics like eating out or going to the mall.

It is those things middle class used to do that they couldn't that is affected by what's happening in the country. Yung sinasabi ng DOF na eating out, basic na yan.

I am in sales, marketing and distribution, we cater from Class E-B. There is growth but it is what we call a flat growth. Tama lang population growth and inflation to guarantee peso-value growth but not volume growth per se.

[uls]

syempre dahil mahina piso mas mahal foreign currency para mag travel

[kagalingan]

bakit kasi utang ng utang .

Tingnan nyo yung mga bagong kasal, ang bibilis tumanda itsura sa stress.

Ito ah, iba ang pinautang sa negosyo at iba ang utang ng common masa.

Pag masa ang umutang walang direction.

[ray_noel]

bakit kasi utang ng utang .

Tingnan nyo yung mga bagong kasal, ang bibilis tumanda itsura sa stress.

Ito ah, iba ang pinautang sa negosyo at iba ang utang ng common masa.

Pag masa ang umutang walang direction.

Based on my understanding sa post mo sir, yung pa utang na binigay ng bsp should be allocated sa business... pero dapat yung business na gagawin is hindi yung affected sa inflation rate ngayon... tama po ba analysis ko?

Massage parlor kaya, tapos kunin ko yung mga chinese kasi alam ko may traditional massage din sila... mura pa labor... Tsaka para sa pinoy baka gusto nila pupunta jan para makabawi sa inangkin nila na china sea... hehe


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[minicarph]

Venezuela wanted to be debt-free from 1st world countries kasi ang daming "conditions" ng loans nila (Human rights, etc.)

So ano ginawa ng Venezuelan Government?

Hiram sila sa China.

Sa China walang up front "conditions".

Now Venezuela is swimming in mountain of debt owed to China.

63 billion US dollars of debt from 2007 to 2014.

And they are in ruins.

Sound familiar?

Hello, Psycho President.

wala naman paki China sa Venezuela, they're not gonna rebuild that counry half a globe away. pero ang China may paki satin, kasi we're asians. why would they allow migration of Chinese citizens here if they are not concerned for their welfare.
that's why China is also here supervising our infra projects

subukan nila i-migrate Chinese nationals sa South America, malamang kidnap dito kidnap duon ang aabutin ng citizens nila

[minicarph]

pero tingin ko sa BSP they're too cautious not to kill growth

hinayaan nila letting the economy run hot

you need new money creation to service previously created debt

--

ung doom and gloom na sinasabi mo OB galing yan sa reaction ng mga tao sa pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin, paghina ng piso, pagbaba ng stock market

non-stop media reporting tungkol diyan kaya there's this air of gloom

pero if you ignore the news and just go out you'll see things look fine

kahit mas mataas na ang presyo ng gas at diesel madami parin sasakyan sa kalye

people are going out

people are spending

i go out almost every night it definitely doesn't look like the economy is in the "doldrums"

yan naman dapat ignore the media, and all those yellow influenced social media na nagproject ng doom and gloom. they claim stock market is down etc. ang dapat tignan if the stock market is really down, then how come tayo ng tayo ng malls housing all these publicly listed businesses
and why not go further na din, PSE is just one block away from the new Podium. eh yun kaya mga stockbrorkers dun whether individuial or company ang nagkakainan sa The Podium. alam ng SM ang market nya, kaya sosy ang the Podium with higher meals per person, tipong average P300 to P400 per meal, eh buhay na buhay ang Podium

makes me wonder, pano kaya kumikita eto mga PSE people nato na kunwari down sila kuno, pero tuloy naman ang spending sa high end malls dito sa Ortigas, whether the Podium or Shangrila or MegaFashion Hall ng Megamall

if one is to observe and meter the economy, it's these people, and I observe them everyday hihihi

[kisshmet]

^what you are seeing now 6 months after the TRAIN law and 2 years or 1/3 of the duterte admin is just the tip of the iceberg

Wait until the 2nd installment of the TRAIN law next year and objectively observe the effect on the economy

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[Ry_Tower]

Hindi pa kasi nararamdaman ng mga elitist eh.

^what you are seeing now 6 months after the TRAIN law and 2 years or 1/3 of the duterte admin is just the tip of the iceberg

Wait until the 2nd installment of the TRAIN law next year and objectively observe the effect on the economy

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[boybi]

pero tingin ko sa BSP they're too cautious not to kill growth

hinayaan nila letting the economy run hot

you need new money creation to service previously created debt

--

ung doom and gloom na sinasabi mo OB galing yan sa reaction ng mga tao sa pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin, paghina ng piso, pagbaba ng stock market

non-stop media reporting tungkol diyan kaya there's this air of gloom

pero if you ignore the news and just go out you'll see things look fine

kahit mas mataas na ang presyo ng gas at diesel madami parin sasakyan sa kalye

people are going out

people are spending

i go out almost every night it definitely doesn't look like the economy is in the "doldrums"

Mangyari pa kaya ulit yung almost 2 decades ago na umabot ng 30% ang bank lending rates?

[uls]

Mangyari pa kaya ulit yung almost 2 decades ago na umabot ng 30% ang bank lending rates?

i really don't know

pero pag bumaba nang bumaba ang dollar reserves ng PH, hihina nang hihina ang PHP

BSP will be forced to raise interest rates to defend PHP (aside from trying to control inflation)

[uls]

ang importante diyan ung dollar reserves

sana malakas ang pasok ng dollars

kasi mabilis ang labas ng dollars ngayon

[uls]

bakit kasi utang ng utang .

Tingnan nyo yung mga bagong kasal, ang bibilis tumanda itsura sa stress.

Ito ah, iba ang pinautang sa negosyo at iba ang utang ng common masa.

Pag masa ang umutang walang direction.

Based on my understanding sa post mo sir, yung pa utang na binigay ng bsp should be allocated sa business... pero dapat yung business na gagawin is hindi yung affected sa inflation rate ngayon... tama po ba analysis ko?

Massage parlor kaya, tapos kunin ko yung mga chinese kasi alam ko may traditional massage din sila... mura pa labor... Tsaka para sa pinoy baka gusto nila pupunta jan para makabawi sa inangkin nila na china sea... hehe


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utang ka para sa business

ung kikitain mo sa business higit pa kesa sa babayaran mong interest sa bangko

yan ang tamang pag gamit ng utang

hindi ung uutang ka para bumili ng walang kwentang gamit na hindi kikita

[heavenlee]

What I can't wrap my head around is that IF the economy is doing so well that consumer demand is (supposedly) outstripping supply in general terms, why BSP did not see this coming, and made an initial inflation target (3%) that is way off the reality (5.2%)? 73 percent off to be exact. Do we have idiots now at the BSP? Or are the people saying economy's rosy the ones we should be calling idiots?

[uls]

Nobody not even the BSP can predict the movement global commodities prices

the rally in commodities (specially crude oil) during the past several months was a major contributor to rising inflation

[uls]

ask anyone who trades actual physical commodities or anyone who manufactures anything

lahat ng commodities/raw materials tumaas ang presyo

some months ago a friend in the paper business asked me why pulp prices are rising

i had no idea coz i don't follow pulp prices so i did some research





no choice sila but to raise prices of their paper products

[minicarph]

ask anyone who trades actual physical commodities or anyone who manufactures anything

lahat ng commodities/raw materials tumaas ang presyo

some months ago a friend in the paper business asked me why pulp prices are rising

i had no idea coz i don't follow pulp prices so i did some research





no choice sila but to raise prices of their paper products

they are raising prices of paper coz demand is llow. I have been notified by BPI na hinde na sila magpapadala ng Actual Billing ng card by year end, download na lang daw. this was true with other banks like citi years ago pa.

and with this as trend, I think even Globe is giving incentives or point ba if you opt to get your billing via email. if manila water, meralco, and others follow suit, and organizations and corporations go paperless like memos, or contracts. right now there are digital signatures na signed on your smartphone.

that's a big drop on demand. but that doesnt indicate that the economy is going down. we are just getting rid of redundant or phase out industries.


kung ako nga naka-smart tv lang sa condo ko, no bluray, dvd, surround sound speakers, not even a cable box, i opt to close my cable subscription. i dont even have AVRS, UPS or high end surge protectors. I just bought a Mi power strip to plug in the smart tv along with 3 usb ports to charge my phones/gadgets. all in one na. I love MI products.



imagine ang dami nawala sa sala ko na minamanufacture. pero may portable marshal ako hihi, kasi gusto yun naman ang speakers ko run from the music and internet radio from my phone



given that, I have a minimalist home. nakatiped pa ako ng mga pang maintain / pambile ng inaalikabok na cabinet or these add-on contraptions. tv is just wall mounted.

nakabile tuloy ako ng Mi Robovac. while I watch smart tv naglilinis mag-isa robovac ko.



i do it everyday kasi recharge lang naman. so do I need to buy powerful detergents or cleaning chemicals sa grocery kung araw araw natatanggal na kagad ng robovac ang mga dirt that will turn hard to remove smudges / stains kung minsan ka lang maglinis

[uls]

toyota philippines may raise car prices due to peso

[heavenlee]

nakabile tuloy ako ng Mi Robovac. while I watch smart tv naglilinis mag-isa robovac ko.



i do it everyday kasi recharge lang naman. so do I need to buy powerful detergents or cleaning chemicals sa grocery kung araw araw natatanggal na kagad ng robovac ang mga dirt that will turn hard to remove smudges / stains kung minsan ka lang maglinis

Hmmm...... you never ever mop your floors? I find vacuuming alone does not get rid of the grittiness or the stickiness of a floor, no matter you do it everyday. Mopping with water is the answer, especially in this dusty Philippine environment. No need really for those expensive chemicals and cleaning agents you mention.

Is there a robo-Mop? I'd rather have that than a robo-Vac if I were to choose only one. But mop and vac are most effective if used in tandem.

Sorry for the off-topic reply but your cleaning habits got me curious.