Philippine Economy Talk

[Monseratto]

Another bad day at the PSE...

As of June 13, 2018
1:19:00

PSEi
7,582.56
Down-188.74
Down-2.43%▼

[uls]

Sen. Bam Aquino: ?Inflation now out of control? | Philstar.com

MANILA, Philippines — Saying that prices of goods in the country have gone out of control, Sen. Paolo Benigno Aquino IV is urging the government to contain it by amending certain inflationary provisions of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law.

Aquino reiterated his push for the immediate passage of his Senate Bill 1798, which seeks to roll back the excise taxes imposed on petroleum products once inflation surpasses the annual target range for three consecutive months.

“At this point I think the government needs to act and make sure that any burden to the people should not be aggravated. Let us provide relief when people are injured,” the senator told “The Chiefs” on Cignal TV’s One News channel.

He said the four percent inflation rate projected by economic managers this year has been repeatedly breached in the last three months after TRAIN took effect in January.

i agree

prices are out of control

but not only because of TRAIN

just look at USDPHP exchange rate

if you're an importer, dollars keep getting more expensive

you need more pesos to buy dollars to pay for imports

so naturally you have to raise prices now so you'll have enough pesos to buy dollars (which is now more expensive)

now people will ask "why do you raise prices on old stock that you bought when the dollar was cheaper?"

answer "coz now you need more pesos to buy the same amount dollars to pay for new stock... unless you don't want to replenish your stock anymore and shut the down the business after selling all the old stock"

[uls]

tumataas ang puhunan mo every time bibili ka ng bagong paninda

kailangan ka humabol

kailangan ka magtaas ng presyo NGAYON

kung hindi ka nakahabol, kukulangin ang puhunan mo

paano ka bibili ng bagong paninda?

[uls]

DBS isn't as optimistic bro.

Peso seen weakening to P54 to $1 by end 2018 | Philstar.com

USDPHP can easily punch thru 53.50 in no time as long as the BSP doesn't do anything

the peso needs central bank support but it's not getting any

the Indonesian rupiah was under speculative attack and their central bank raised rates 2X IN A SPAN OF 2 WEEKS and said will do more to support the rupiah

that scared the hell out of speculators

our central bank seems to be strolling in the park

[uls]

OFW remittances and BPO earnings and exports can't match the strong demand for dollars needed to pay for imports

PH forex reserves declining in case nobody noticed

[EQAddict]

Buying $ today. This exchange rate is nuts. Gotta protect against further devaluation.

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[uls]

and here's the thing

you can raise prices but your customers may not be able to afford na

so you gotta weigh --- maintain old price or raise price

can you live with smaller profit margin?

that's why stocks can't rally

the pinoy consumer is getting squeezed

the market sees lower earnings for companies going forward

[Wh1stl3r]

USDPHP can easily punch thru 53.50 in no time as long as the BSP doesn't do anything

the peso needs central bank support but it's not getting any

the Indonesian rupiah was under speculative attack and their central bank raised rates 2X IN A SPAN OF 2 WEEKS and said will do more to support the rupiah

that scared the hell out of speculators

our central bank seems to be strolling in the park

Agree. BSP should make a more substantial rate hike. Admin seems to think economic growth will remain the same despite runaway inflation.

How will people keep on buying stuff when consumer confidence dives with all these price hikes? Once the buying slows there won't be much growth anyway.

Buti sana kung pareho lahat ni OB na utang is life pa rin kahit ganito ang panahon.

[uls]

BSP better do something quick

[uls]

people are rushing to buy dollars before it gets even more expensive

that demand is driving up value of the dollar

self-reinforcing feedback loop

[Monseratto]

Espenilla is doing a terrible job, as all the economic mangers in this idiot goverment...

BSP better do something quick

[2lits17]

kawawang mga pinoy they are squeezing all of us to the last drop. with palpak economic managers on board a runaway train, stocks down, exchange rate down, reserves down, lesser buying power for the people. Even if all OFW remit money to PH hinde sustainable yun.

i dont think they will do something now, they will just keep on blaming external factors, like US Fed hikes, etc etc.

pero sa news masaya daw mga relatives ng ofw kasi mas malaki mapapalit nila, ang tanong, ang pag bili nila ng goods hinde ba mas mahal din compare before? i just dont get it.

[jut703]

Kawawang mga Pinoy talaga...



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[Yatta]

Kawawang mga Pinoy talaga...



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Di bale bagsak, basta hindi LP!

Sent from my P01MA using Tapatalk

[jut703]

To be fair, the high inflation and declining peso is a bitter pill that's part of Build Build Build - you buy lots of capital imports to build roads after all.

The question is if the economy can swallow the bitter pill, or will we succumb to the economic pressure and lose all momentum from the past decade.

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[Wh1stl3r]

BSP monetary board:

[2lits17]

meron na ba nasimulan na build build build ng current admin, kasi yun mga alam ko na infra that is currently on going eh panahon pa ni pnoy yun, tsaka bakit yun panahon ni pnoy, may tplex, naiaex pero hinde naman bumagsak ang economy. nag sisimula palang build build build bagsak na agad economy parang i cant believe na hinde lang yun dahil sa build build build, palpak din economic adviser ni du30.

[uls]

and because the dollar is strong today

[uls]

meron na ba nasimulan na build build build ng current admin, kasi yun mga alam ko na infra that is currently on going eh panahon pa ni pnoy yun, tsaka bakit yun panahon ni pnoy, may tplex, naiaex pero hinde naman bumagsak ang economy. nag sisimula palang build build build bagsak na agad economy parang i cant believe na hinde lang yun dahil sa build build build, palpak din economic adviser ni du30.

actually hindi bagsak ang economy

PH economy grew 6.8% in Q1 this year

Philippines GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1982-218 | Data | Chart | Calendar

The Philippines economy grew an annual 6.8 percent year-on-year in the March quarter of 2018, following a downwardly revised 6.5 percent expansion in the previous quarter and matching market consensus. Both investment and government spending rose faster while private consumption and exports continued to increase.

that's fast

our economy is running hot

there's too much money in circulation

we're number 1 in credit growth in SEA i think

bank lending is insane

that's why we get warnings like this





to be continued

[uls]

continuation...


thats not to say hindi hihina ang economy

rising prices can slow down consumption and since PH economy is consumption driven, when the consumer pulls back, the economy slows down

kaya nakatutok sa earnings reports ang mga stock investors

everybody's looking for signs on whether the pinoy consumer is buying less

and indeed there are already signs

higher taxes take money away from the private sector

money that should have been spent on buying stuff gets confiscated by the govt

here's our money






to be continued