Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

internal factors like PH 2 billion+ USD balance of payments (more imports than exports) have a lot to do with PHP weakness

and the BSP is behind the curve (need more rate hikes to defend PHP)

external factors contribute a lot to PHP weakness too

money is leaving emerging markets so all EM currencies are under pressure

to those commenting about PH economy with political bias

that everything happening is ENTIRELY the government's fault

just look at the attached photo

this is an EMERGING MARKET-WIDE phenomena

not a PH-only phenomena

i'm not saying the govt has no fault (part of it is)

but to say it's entirely the government's fault is IGNORANCE

[dreamur]

dunno what's behind BSP thinking

why are they not raising rates faster (well back-to-back rate hikes is already something) but obviously the market doesn't think it's enough

it didn't halt PHP slide

looks to me they're biased towards growth

they're afraid to step harder on the brakes

To use the famous DDS rebuttal, bakit hindi ka na lang nag BSP governor uls? 🤣🤣🤣

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[uls]

they offered me the job but i wanted them to put an office sa banawe area pero ayaw nila so di ko tinanggap ung trabaho

[dreamur]

they offered me the job but i wanted them to put an office sa banawe area pero ayaw nila so di ko tinanggap ung trabaho

I dont think so. Ung DDS lang ang i-appoint dun. Hindi ka naman bomoto eh.

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[uls]

kaya siguro ayaw maging mas aggressive ang bangko sentral kasi target ng gobyerno ni du30 7%-8% growth

pag nag preno nang malakas ang BSP hindi ma-a-achieve ung target

[uls]

pero tingin ko di maabot ung target growth rate

TRAIN took a lot of spending money away from consumers

ung sinasabi ni OB na...

dami dami tao kanina landers, parang wala naman naghihirap, bulto bulto binibile, tapos nagkaubusan pa ng shopping cart

hindi naman representative ng average pinoy consumer ang mga landers shoppers

pero sign yan everyone's looking for value for money

everyone wants sale items

nobody wants to pay full price

so squeezed ang margin ng mga retailers

which translates to lower profit

[ray_noel]

Next stop US$=55-56 PhP...


Philippine peso to hit P54 to $1 – BMI Research

Nice sa mga OFW... panahon ni erap yata last naging ganyan... pero kaibahan is walang train law nun time na yun...


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[uls]

Nice sa mga OFW... panahon ni erap yata last naging ganyan... pero kaibahan is walang train law nun time na yun...


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kaya ang argument diyan

kung ano ang na-gain mo sa pag palit ng dollar to peso

kinain naman ng pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin

[Ketib]

kaya ang argument diyan

kung ano ang na-gain mo sa pag palit ng dollar to peso

kinain naman ng pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin

Uls, hindi na naman lumaki ang monthly ng sasakyan(kaso 140 na car wash dito sa suki ko sa davao, after 4 months bago ako nakauwi) at bahay. Basic needs? May konti epekto but not to much, for me.

[jut703]

Uls, hindi na naman lumaki ang monthly ng sasakyan(kaso 140 na car wash dito sa suki ko sa davao, after 4 months bago ako nakauwi) at bahay. Basic needs? May konti epekto but not to much, for me.

ANALYSIS: A weak peso does not help exporters, OFW families | ABS-CBN News

All this only shows that getting more pesos for dollars sent by relatives abroad does not necessarily insulate OFW households from the difficulties spawned by a weaker peso, rising cost of living, and the wave of price increases caused by the TRAIN scheme’s indiscriminate imposition of taxes on the populace.

Things are rosy now because you are still working abroad. But if the peso depreciation continues, a few years down the line, your next car will be significantly more expensive. The interest for your next house will be higher and so will the prices of raw materials.

Continued peso depreciation slows down the growth of the economy especially for a country as import-dependent as we are. This means that the local job market is potentially bleaker down the line. Put differently, this increases the chances that your kids will end up having to be OFWs as well just to have a decent living.

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[A121]

Uls, hindi na naman lumaki ang monthly ng sasakyan(kaso 140 na car wash dito sa suki ko sa davao, after 4 months bago ako nakauwi) at bahay. Basic needs? May konti epekto but not to much, for me.

Short term lang po ang loan nyo sa sasakyan kaya malamang fixed rate po ito. But if you take a loan again, malamang mas mahal na monthly ammort mo.

I feel for those who have housing loans na naka float na in a few years.

[chronicle]

Short term lang po ang loan nyo sa sasakyan kaya malamang fixed rate po ito. But if you take a loan again, malamang mas mahal na monthly ammort mo.

I feel for those who have housing loans na naka float na in a few years.

Kinakabahan ako sa statement mo. Pero well founded naman.

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[heavenlee]

Short term lang po ang loan nyo sa sasakyan kaya malamang fixed rate po ito. But if you take a loan again, malamang mas mahal na monthly ammort mo.

I feel for those who have housing loans na naka float na in a few years.

Glad my long term loans are fixed.

[jut703]

I got fixed 1 year rates. Over 1.5% cheaper than a 5 year rate. I don't expect the interest rates to spike by 1.5% in 5 years. Even if it does, nakatipid na ko in the few years that the 1 year rates were cheaper than the 5 yr rates.

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[minicarph]

pero tingin ko di maabot ung target growth rate

TRAIN took a lot of spending money away from consumers

ung sinasabi ni OB na...



hindi naman representative ng average pinoy consumer ang mga landers shoppers

pero sign yan everyone's looking for value for money

everyone wants sale items

nobody wants to pay full price

so squeezed ang margin ng mga retailers

which translates to lower profit

Hindi value for money, the sale price is the true price. Alam ng lahat Jacked up 300 pecent pag regular day .

Its not rocket science how trading works. Kung dati traders are getting away with overpricing coz wala ubiqitous internet. Now hinde na, dami price compare apps sa net.

Uls, bsp, keynesian, macroeconomics wala na yan mga ganyan ngaun, the average is consumer is very smart these days.

If toyota gives 100k discount after 6 months of train implementation, then obvious they topk advsntsge of the train law last January . Eh ngaun bagsak ang car sales sales data monthly, eh di on bended knees Sila, they have to woo back buyers. Suddenly, hinde naman pala talaga ganun kataas ang effect ng train law only greedy traders piggybacking on it,

So these artificial doom and gloom or bear, let them all fall. Another groupof millenials will take their place

[minicarph]

Eto problema local investors like you and mem those who make money work for money, kaya lang pano nga kayo magkarun ng good returns eh profit is down coz low spending as well as the consimers are smart now,

The find value where they see one. If for example, a good bibingka store, dinadayo coz masarap at di tipid ang ingredients, then somewhere along the way investors come in, convince the owner to expand, tapos pag expanded na tipid na ingredients and then dami nakikiride on sa kita ng original bibingka store .

Nasan na yun good value ng store. Eh ngaun this new economy is just punishing these investors na pinapataas lang ang halaga ng bibingka coz they want monthly or annual returns.

Dami nakakaina mura nga uls. And quality pa coz labor of love ng orgigjnal owners.

[A121]

I got fixed 1 year rates. Over 1.5% cheaper than a 5 year rate. I don't expect the interest rates to spike by 1.5% in 5 years. Even if it does, nakatipid na ko in the few years that the 1 year rates were cheaper than the 5 yr rates.

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I am trying to remember how much it was a couple of years back. Nakaka 50bp na kasi tayo.

Though mas maganda tumingin pa rin ng historical data.

[uls]

Indonesia’s central bank raised interest rates again

That’s total of 100 bps in 2 months

BSP is not as aggressive

[A121]

Indonesia’s central bank raised interest rates again

That’s total of 100 bps in 2 months

BSP is not as aggressive

Question: historically, has the BSP raised the rates greater than 50bps in a year?

[uls]

Question: historically, has the BSP raised the rates greater than 50bps in a year?

i don't know Sir but if things get worse they'll have to