Philippine Economy Talk

[shadow]

i mean going forward there will be lots of news about damage to certain business sectors

the virus has made many business models unviable

Pero babagsak ba presyo ng mga condos?


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[uls]

yes shadow i think bababa ang presyo ng condo

i'm not a real estate/property guy

i'm more on macro -- my view is in a deflationary environment i don't see how condo prices can defy gravity while other asset prices are falling

[_Cathy_]

Pero babagsak ba presyo ng mga condos?


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oo sabi ni crush. Swerte ng mga liquid!

[uls]

My friends who have resto business said that almost 70% of their profit comes from “dine in” customers. With the high costs of rent nowadays, they could not simply survive with mobile deliveries and take out orders.


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now think about how malls can survive

halos lahat ng tenant sa mall either resto o apparel

in this environment there's no way they can afford rent

[uls]

somebody told me surviving 2020 is now the goal

SURVIVING

forget about your December 2019 goal of making more money in 2020

If your business survives 2020 profit na yan

[dreamur]

They also said we'll have mass testing by April 14. It's May 24 and our testing capacity is still saturated - our daily cases hover at the 200-300 range which is a plateaued curve, not a flattenned one.

So while I'm hopefull that this govt will get their act together, I'm not too optimistic unless I see actual contact tracing systems in place.

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Precisely the reason why I prefer the economy to suffer longer so people will realize we need to replace the current government. I may have sound selfish lately (though I exaggerate a lot to bring the point home) but PH economy will take longer to recover even after this virus is contained. So much have been lost to corruption (what happened to the P275B again?) that private companies are left to feign for the impacts of recession. Short term economic solutions will result to longer suffering and further economic losses (wave wave naman dyan ung nag-agree na wave 2 na tapos biglang bawi). Im sure naka quote na rin to.

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[jut703]

Precisely the reason why I prefer the economy to suffer longer so people will realize we need to replace the current government. I might have sounded selfish lately (though I exaggerate a lot to bring the point home) but PH economy will take longer to recover even after this virus is contained. So much have been lost to corruption (what happened to the P275B again?) that private companies are left to feign for the impacts of recession. Short term economic solutions will result to longer suffering and further economic losses (wave wave naman dyan ung nag-agree na wave 2 na tapos biglang bawi). Im sure naka quote na rin to.

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Cognitive dissonance. Even if the economy crashes, the support for our populist government will remain and the supporters will always find a way to deflect the blame elsewhere and justify that the administration was doing the best they could.

I have DDS folks on my Facebook feed across all income strata, none of the gov'ts recent booboos have swayed them.

Only those who were in the fence before would be dissuaded - but remember that the govt has an 80% approval rating. That has likely not slumped in the past 2 months. You'd get a dip of maybe 10% max. Then another rise once Duterte says something charming again to the masses.

So while wishing the economy to crash might give a sense of schadenfraude, it really doesn't reach those that need to be reached and ends up with millions of Filipinos suffering economically as collateral.

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[shadow]

Nabasa ko pala sa mga meron loans sa banks, yes extended nga ang amortization pero you still need to pay the accrued interests. Diba dapat waived na rin interest.


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[jut703]

Nabasa ko pala sa mga meron loans sa banks, yes extended nga ang amortization pero you still need to pay the accrued interests. Diba dapat waived na rin interest.


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Good thing you pointed it out. Read the fine print of my loan - tuloy nga ang interest. Will call them on Tuesday to just deduct everything kaysa tumaas pa interest. 2 months na kong hindi chinacharge eh.

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[dreamur]

Cognitive dissonance. Even if the economy crashes, the support for our populist government will remain and the supporters will always find a way to deflect the blame elsewhere and justify that the administration was doing the best they could.

I have DDS folks on my Facebook feed across all income strata, none of the gov'ts recent booboos have swayed them.

Only those who were in the fence before would be dissuaded - but remember that the govt has an 80% approval rating. That has likely not slumped in the past 2 months. You'd get a dip of maybe 10% max. Then another rise once Duterte says something charming again to the masses.

So while wishing the economy to crash might give a sense of schadenfraude, it really doesn't reach those that need to be reached and ends up with millions of Filipinos suffering economically as collateral.

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I respect your opinion bro though I don't agree that you call it cognitive dissonance because I still hold firmly the belief that people can change for the better. It would take harsh realities for some to change though. If we will resign to the fact that we deserve this government then we can expect one of his sycophants to be the next president.

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[dreamur]

Nabasa ko pala sa mga meron loans sa banks, yes extended nga ang amortization pero you still need to pay the accrued interests. Diba dapat waived na rin interest.


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I think interest is still due but penalties are waived.

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[shadow]

Good thing you pointed it out. Read the fine print of my loan - tuloy nga ang interest. Will call them on Tuesday to just deduct everything kaysa tumaas pa interest. 2 months na kong hindi chinacharge eh.

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Dapat waived na rin yun.


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[jut703]

I respect your opinion bro though I don't agree that you call it cognitive dissonance because I still hold firmly the belief that people can change for the better. It would take harsh realities for some to change though. If we will resign to the fact that we deserve this government then we can expect one of his sycophants to be the next president.

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I was referring to congitive dissonance within his supporters, just to clarify.

That is, even if they know something is inherently wrong (i.e Sinas mañanita), they will suddenly justify it just because Duterte says it's permissible (because they hold on to their belief that Duterte is infallible more dearly than following the law).

We don't deserve this government but this is a democracy and the majority are happy with Duterte and see him as a net positive so they will get what they vote for.

Only a brewing disdain from the masses themselves will crumble support for Duterte and his lackeys. But for sure his replacement will also be another populist (Isko, Marcos, etc).

That's the kind of politician most Filipinos like. While we might be able to reach and convert a few here and there, most people will only shift political allegiances when it aligns with their internal beliefs and the reality is that people relate more to populists rather than technocrats.

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[cast_no_shadow]

I have DDS folks on my Facebook feed across all income strata, none of the gov'ts recent booboos have swayed them.

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Until now I’m puzzled. Nawala na pagiging rational nung ibang tao, all blunders are justified. Mas big deal pa yung ABSCBN issue [emoji15]

Ang hirap lalo kung kamag anak mo, hindi ko na lang kontrahin or bigyan ng facts for them to think about in the end ikaw pa din ang mali.


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[shadow]

I think interest is still due but penalties are waived.

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So paano yun mga auto debit or PDC? Pag pinasok nila yun monthly amortization plus accrued interest pa? S


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[Lin Dan]

Pero babagsak ba presyo ng mga condos?


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Connected.


Can Airbnb Survive? - YouTube


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[dreamur]

I was referring to congitive dissonance within his supporters, just to clarify.

That is, even if they know something is inherently wrong (i.e Sinas mañanita), they will suddenly justify it just because Duterte says it's permissible (because they hold on to their belief that Duterte is infallible more dearly than following the law).

We don't deserve this government but this is a democracy and the majority are happy with Duterte and see him as a net positive so they will get what they vote for.

Only a brewing disdain from the masses themselves will crumble support for Duterte and his lackeys. But for sure his replacement will also be another populist (Isko, Marcos, etc).

That's the kind of politician most Filipinos like. While we might be able to reach and convert a few here and there, most people will only shift political allegiances when it aligns with their internal beliefs and the reality is that people relate more to populists rather than technocrats.

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Got you. Although my stand would probably be looked upon as CD by others whose views are different from mine.

Agree that fanaticism is dangerous and social media is dumbing down the masses. We need a radical change though to save this country from the abyss.

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[Lin Dan]

now think about how malls can survive

halos lahat ng tenant sa mall either resto o apparel

in this environment there's no way they can afford rent

Normally, the malls would “renegotiate” the rental fees if they still want to keep their tenants.

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[jut703]

Got you. Although my stand would probably be looked upon as CD by others whose views are different from mine.

Agree that fanaticism is dangerous and social media is dumbing down the masses. We need a radical change though to save this country from the abyss.

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The radical change will only come when masses realize that not all technocrats are corrupt (also that populists are usually worse) and admit within themselves that we need someone who knows what they're doing and is surrounded by people who know what they're doing.

Unlikely in our lifetimes if I'm being realistic about it. Populism is back in vogue. Not just in the Philippines - you have Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, and so on.

Then again there's hope that we will elect the likes of Arden, Merkel, Trudeau - but the big difference is that these are countries with strong educational systems in place. Hindi bobo ang masa nila.

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[uls]

Normally, the malls would “renegotiate” the rental fees if they still want to keep their tenants.

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renegotiate means mas mababa rent

so less income for malls

meron expenses mga mall so damay yun

it doesn't stop at one thing

everything's interconnected

-

mall owner borrowed money to put up a mall

income from rent goes to paying the loan

renegotiate --> lower rental income --> mall needs to cut costs to meet debt obligations

if you're on the receiving end of malls' cost cutting you lose income too