Philippine Economy Talk

[boybi]

Dito ba sa Tsikot merong severely impacted yung kabuhayan because of COVID? Parang kung magpost naman mga tao, immune sila sa COVID kahit naka ECQ.

I would assume the employees here are ok. Hindi naman arawan mga member dito. Yung mga may negosyo sinasabi ok naman sila kahit hindi magoperate and may pera naman.

It's really the lower income Filipinos that are affected. We are all facing the same storm but we definitely aren't on the same boat.

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We have franchised businesses (restaurants and spas). Most probably mabankrupt na spa. Restos naman, if maging take out and deliveries pa din until year end, sarado na din.

Ano magiging effect ng covid crisis sa banking system? What if madami mag default sa mga loans? What will happen to lending rates? TD rates?

How about currency market?

[jut703]

jut703:



i'm the one who's super concerned about the economy and wants the lockdown lifted

somebody here was repeatedly implying that i'm in financial trouble kaya gusto ko ma-lift ang lockdown

hindi naman ma-bring up ung tungkol sa ganun if somebody wasn't repeatedly trolling

actually he's the one who's implying that he's so rich he can survive a lockdown no matter how long it lasts

#matira_ang_whatever

I agree that we should be looking at the situation as a whole as opposed to just the immediate effects to us personally.

Also unproductive to be goading people to say that they are pushing one direction over the other even if it doesn't affect them as cognitive dissonance, so wag nalang patulan.

It's prudent to slowly restart the economy, but the big prerequisite is to have mass testing and contact tracing. This is how other countries are able to resume the economy while still taking care of its citizens. Until we have that, people will always clamor against economic normalization.

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[uls]

Ano magiging effect ng covid crisis sa banking system? What if madami mag default sa mga loans? What will happen to lending rates? TD rates?

How about currency market?

definitely madami mag default sa loans

banks are getting ready for that

(pero before default mag restructuring muna)

BSP will stand behind the biggest commercial banks

worst case BSP will print money to buy bad loans to save the banks

--

naka ilan rate cut na ang BSP... lending rates should be lower

depende na sa bangko if they will pass the lower rates to clients

if you're creditworthy naman you'll get low rates

--

coz BSP lowered rates, damay ang rates paid on savings, TD

--

USDPHP

problema pag humina ang pasok ng $$$ dahil madami OFW nawalan ng trabaho

[boybi]

If BSP will print money to buy the debts, di ba tatas inflation natin?

Re: currency, of if few USD getting here, means tataas USD vs PHP. Patay naman nyan import business.

[uls]

it's hard to create inflation when the economy is experiencing negative growth

if BSP will print money to take bad loans off banks' books, that's only to stabilize banks

i don't think banks will go on a lending spree after that

--

pag humina ang PHP tataas ang import prices that's gonna cause inflation

but if the economy is weak there won't be a lot of demand for imports

[dreamur]

jut703:



i'm the one who's super concerned about the economy and wants the lockdown lifted

somebody here was repeatedly implying that i'm in financial trouble kaya gusto ko ma-lift ang lockdown

hindi naman ma-bring up ung tungkol sa ganun if somebody wasn't repeatedly trolling

actually he's the one who's implying that he's so rich he can survive a lockdown no matter how long it lasts

#matira_ang_whatever

Oh cathy nagpaparinig. Diba i-ban mo?

#matira_ang_tunay_na-lalaki

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[Ry_Tower]

even if you're on the biggest boat (coz you got billions in the bank)

when the banks fail you'll end up in a life boat

But that definitely won't happen. If the Philippines is facked, they'll just go somewhere else.

The spanish flu was way worst, yet the world recovered.

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[jut703]

In light of the pandemic, it seems that maintaining your current income is already the best-case scenario. We see so many sectors affected - restaurants, tourism, events, recreation, automobile, petroleum, and so on.

We see some sectors holding - mostly essential food and household goods, hygiene products, healthcare.

But have not seen any booming sectors (i.e. businesses growing sustainably faster than pre-covid times). Everyone is just struggling to stay afloat. Millions have lost their jobs or have significantly reduced their income. Many SMEs have taken such big financial hits that they might not be able to reopen.

Even if the economy does indeed reopen, it'll be a while before consumption returns back to pre-covid levels. What doesn't help is our government's slow and uncoordinated response.

We lose 18B per day that we are on ECQ as the economy continues to suffer. That is an expensive cost compared to what it takes to restart the economy - mass testing and contact tracing.

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[uls]

yes JUT703

grabe ang damage

understand why i was sounding the alarm in this thread

[jut703]

yes JUT703

grabe ang damage

understand why i was sounding the alarm in this thread

Bakit naka-all caps username ko?[emoji23]

Definitely the economy will be in shambles (if it isn't already). But really before we can even try saving or rebuilding it, we need to be sufficiently equipped to fight the pandemic. Machismo and militarism will not save us. Let Bolsonaro and Brazil be a warning of what happens when a populist president of a 3rd world country does nothing.

We need mass testing (targeted testing if you want to call it that) and contact tracing. I don't understand why we still aren't prioritizing this.

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[uls]

Bakit naka-all caps username ko?[emoji23]

na-excited lang hehe

Definitely the economy will be in shambles (if it isn't already). But really before we can even try saving or rebuilding it, we need to be sufficiently equipped to fight the pandemic. Machismo and militarism will not save us. Let Bolsonaro and Brazil be a warning of what happens when a populist president of a 3rd world country does nothing.

We need mass testing (targeted testing if you want to call it that) and contact tracing. I don't understand why we still aren't prioritizing this.

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i heard the gov't will start hiring lots of contact tracers

para bigyan din ng trabaho mga nawalan ng trabaho

[Lin Dan]

Restaurants, condo sector face bleak prospects | Inquirer Business


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[uls]

Restaurants, condo sector face bleak prospects | Inquirer Business


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you're gonna see a lot of that kind of business news going forward

[Gumusut_Amige]

na-excited lang hehe



i heard the gov't will start hiring lots of contact tracers

para bigyan din ng trabaho mga nawalan ng trabaho

hindi pa ba gumagamit ng isang application para makatulong sa contact tracing dyan sa atin?
implemented na dito sa amin.

BruHealth - Apps on Google Play

[jut703]

na-excited lang hehe



i heard the gov't will start hiring lots of contact tracers

para bigyan din ng trabaho mga nawalan ng trabaho

They also said we'll have mass testing by April 14. It's May 24 and our testing capacity is still saturated - our daily cases hover at the 200-300 range which is a plateaued curve, not a flattenned one.

So while I'm hopefull that this govt will get their act together, I'm not too optimistic unless I see actual contact tracing systems in place.

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[uls]

yeah the press releases always sound great

[shadow]

you're gonna see a lot of that kind of business news going forward

Babagsak ba mga prices ng Condos? Pinag usapan namin nun friend po the other day. Opportunity daw sa kanya at bibili siya ng mga condo, mag take a advantage daw siya


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[Lin Dan]

you're gonna see a lot of that kind of business news going forward

My friends who have resto business said that almost 70% of their profit comes from “dine in” customers. With the high costs of rent nowadays, they could not simply survive with mobile deliveries and take out orders.


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[uls]

hindi pa ba gumagamit ng isang application para makatulong sa contact tracing dyan sa atin?
implemented na dito sa amin.

BruHealth - Apps on Google Play

it was on the news but it's unlikely to be followed

sa mga coronavirus hotspot (urban poor areas)... though madami na may smartphone marami parin gumagamit ng basic phone

Gov’t to hire 136, contact tracers, says Neda chief | Inquirer News

MANILA, Philippines — The government’s economic team has proposed to hire 136,000 contact tracers to boost the efforts of the Department of Health (DOH) to halt the spread of the new coronavirus in the Philippines.

[uls]

Babagsak ba mga prices ng Condos? Pinag usapan namin nun friend po the other day. Opportunity daw sa kanya at bibili siya ng mga condo, mag take a advantage daw siya


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i mean going forward there will be lots of news about damage to certain business sectors

the virus has made many business models unviable