Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

**emms1121** · October 19th, 2009 04:48 PM

Sana naman wag na tumuloy sa pilipinas yan.. bugbog na kami tiga norte. Sa japan na lang mas mayaman sila don..

**Monseratto** · October 19th, 2009 04:50 PM

Originally Posted by Hanren

Halos din nagkakalayo ang mga forecasts ng mga different agencies if you include the images posted by sir Monseratto...

All the models are now on a more focused track...

**valvura** · October 22nd, 2009 02:47 PM

All weather forecasting agencies indicate that the 'eye' of typhoon 'Ramil' (Lupit) will miss northern Luzon and move northward. By this time, PAGASA na lang ang naiiwan, still contemplating which one to adopt (or copy

):

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/09205l.html
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-p...ngs/wp2209.gif
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V6e/index.htm
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tra...c/200922W.html
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

**renzo_d10** · October 22nd, 2009 03:31 PM

^^ Hayy salamat. Atleast Northern, Central and Southern Luzon are ( for now ) saved by the raging power of Super Typhoon Ramil.

Kasi, kung tatamaan ang N. Luzon, kawawa naman, kararaan lang ni Pepeng at ngayon Ramil naman, kaya Thank God talaga.

**mazzipino** · October 22nd, 2009 07:41 PM

Check out it's movement: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/prod...0910140230.GIF

**Monseratto** · October 22nd, 2009 07:54 PM

The movement of Ramil is very erratic like Pepeng. Effects daw ng climate change...

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 22nd, 2009 11:58 PM

If I ever used climate change as a reasoning, I'd be fired. What affects a typhoon's track near the Philippines are things going on farther north and there's a lot going on.

Originally Posted by Monseratto

The movement of Ramil is very erratic like Pepeng. Effects daw ng climate change...

**valvura** · October 23rd, 2009 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by Jun aka Pekto

If I ever used climate change as a reasoning, I'd be fired. What affects a typhoon's track near the Philippines are things going on farther north and there's a lot going on.

you'd be fired if you're in a first world country, but in the Philippines naah

.
Further to the effects from the north , "LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system." http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 23rd, 2009 05:56 PM

Originally Posted by valvura

you'd be fired if you're in a first world country, but in the Philippines naah

.
Further to the effects from the north , "LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system." http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

Cooler air at the low levels will help weaken the storm. But, most of the cooler air is farther north. That wouldn't account for the typhoon veering northward in the first place.

Cooler air will also weaken High pressure systems which seems to be the case with what the computer forecast models are showing for typhoon Lupit. The frontal systems up north are strong enough to totally erode or at least "deform" the subtropical ridge which normally keeps typhoons tracking westward. As the ridge erodes/deforms, it retracts back to the main source which is the Pacific High much farther to the east. That opens the way for Lupit to curve from westward to northeastward.

It's the same principle with the hurricanes on the Atlantic. The vast majority of hurricanes take that same westward route from the coast of West Africa and turning northeastward near the US coast. They basically try to make their way around the Bemuda High. If the Bermuda High is strong or farther west, it can keep a hurricane tracking westward until the subtropical ridge emanating from the Bermuda High weakens which was similar to what happened with Katrina.

**mazzipino** · October 24th, 2009 02:45 PM

WTF, it's gonna come back ?!

Someone give it a map coz this typhoon is one lost mother...

**renzo_d10** · October 24th, 2009 05:14 PM

^^ Even if it does come back. I wouldn't think that it will still hit the Northern Part of the Philippines.

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 24th, 2009 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by mazzipino

WTF, it's gonna come back ?!

Someone give it a map coz this typhoon is one lost mother...

Not really. There's quite a number of systems indicated on the computer forecast models and satellite images on what's affecting its track. More than likely, it'll be absorbed in the Baiu Front off southern Japan.

It's interesting to note JTWC's saying the low level part of the storm will shear off and take that southwestward track while the rest of the storm continue northeastward and gradually be absorbed into the Baiu Front.

I've never seen that happen before. So this one's worth a study.

Add: Seems like the Japanese (JMA) disagrees with JTWC. I'm more likely to go with the JMA solution based on historical data especially if the different computer models show a lack of consistency.

When disagreements like this come up, it causes a lot of international headaches. One or the other weather agency will be doing a thorough review of this one if they're wrong.

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 26th, 2009 12:28 AM

Yup. It looks like JTWC finally went along with JMA which correctly took the dynamics of a typhoon into account.

A typhoon is a vertically stacked system. The whole thing goes one way or another and either sustain itself or die. It's not the lower part moving in one direction and the upper part moving in another.

The JTWC has it rapidly exiting out though. That would indicate the storm is weakening fast and being absorbed into mid-latitude flow.

**mazzipino** · October 26th, 2009 03:18 AM

Anyway, let's just enjoy the sunshine for now! :D

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 26th, 2009 05:55 AM

Originally Posted by mazzipino

Anyway, let's just enjoy the sunshine for now! :D

Enjoy today. Another one's coming next weekend.

**redorange** · October 26th, 2009 07:44 AM

Another one forming and another day off screwed over by rain. Weird thing is my buddy and I were looking at this area because of the scattered formations and thought that within this week it would form, I was just hoping it would be after my day off.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-p...252100sair.jpg

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-p...ngs/wp9509.gif

**valvura** · October 26th, 2009 04:26 PM

We have an erratic PAGASA who keeps on blaming erratic weather systems (e.g. Ramil). Though conservative forecasting and erring on the side of safety, we cannot discount the money spent and effort exerted for 'preparedness'. JMA et al have been forecasting turnaround of a Ramil a full week ahead of PAGASA & PAGASA didn't forecast a turnaround not until Ramil actually turned around, making PAGASA a bonafide POSTCASTER, prolonging the fear and anxiety of the people.

And now, instead of explaining the turnaround of Ramil & the reason they deviated from the flock of credible weather forecasting agencies, they're now focusing on a new weather system 23 of which information is available from JTWC.

**Monseratto** · October 26th, 2009 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by Jun aka Pekto

Enjoy today. Another one's coming next weekend.

Looks like it...Hope this track will be way off the mark like the last one. Manila is on its sights.

**ghosthunter** · October 26th, 2009 05:10 PM

^^^ looks like a dead center hit on Metro Manila on Nov.1 2009.

There goes the weekend.

**KERSMcRae** · October 26th, 2009 07:32 PM

Originally Posted by Monseratto

Looks like it...Hope this track will be way off the mark like the last one. Manila is on its sights.

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