Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[boybi]

I hope TC Melor's track won't change over the next few days. My brother's wedding will be this sunday and I wish it won't suffer the same fate as the wedding were supposed to attend during typhoon Ondoy where the wedding got canceled.

[boybi]

I hope TC Melor's track won't change over the next few days. My brother's wedding will be this sunday and I wish it won't suffer the same fate as the wedding were supposed to attend during typhoon Ondoy where the wedding got canceled.

[ghosthunter]

Looks like we are in the clear for the meantime. This assumes the other typhoon on the right of the picture stays on it's track heading towards the coast of japan.

[Zeus]

Baka bumalik daw si Pepeng

New storm threatens to pull ‘Pepeng’ back


By Nikko Dizon
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:59:00 10/05/2009

MANILA, Philippines—Typhoon “Pepeng” on Sunday tarried off northern Luzon and threatened to return to the region for a second whammy, drawn by a new monster storm churning in the Pacific, 2,000 kilometers east of the Philippines, weathermen said.
“Most likely the rains will persist longer than expected,” said weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) at a press briefing.
Pagasa earlier forecast that Pepeng (international name: Parma) would continue to bring strong winds and heavy rains to several provinces in the north for two to three days.
A few hours later, meteorologists detected that Pepeng would “loop back” to the region, sucked in by a new typhoon, internationally designated as “Melor,” moving west northeast at 24 kilometers per hour.
More rains
Melor, packing maximum winds of 195 kph, was expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility later Monday afternoon. It will be designated as “Quedan” when it does so—the 17th storm to hit the Philippines this year.
“If Pepeng loops, it will hit northern Luzon again and perhaps even central Luzon,” Cruz said.
He said that from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday, Pagasa had already recorded 201.1 millimeters of rainfall in Laoag City in Ilocos Norte province and 169 mm in Sinait village in Vigan, Ilocos Sur.
“This is what we’re afraid of. This is only the first day of Pepeng in northern Luzon and we don’t know how much rainfall there’d be for the next several days. The areas could experience flooding and landslides,” he said.
Cruz said that if residents in Ilocos Norte noticed a “lull” in the typhoon, they could expect the weather to worsen in the coming days.
Looping back
Cruz said that the winds brought by Pepeng were still strong that even Pagasa’s station near Laoag was nearly hit by debris from a damaged guard house on Sunday.
“Ilocos Norte officials thought it was over and were already thankful not knowing that this is already happening to Pepeng,” Cruz said, referring to its looping back.
As of 10 p.m., Pagasa spotted the eye of Pepeng at 200 km north-northwest of Laoag, packing maximum winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of 150 kph.
It was “almost stationary” and was expected to be at 260 km north-northwest of Laoag Monday afternoon.
“We don’t expect (Melor) to make a landfall in the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR). Once it enters the PAR, it will move north to northeast out of PAR,” Cruz said.
‘Fujiwara effect’
Pagasa also expects Pepeng to follow Melor as they both move toward the northeast and merge as they make their way out of the Philippine area of responsibility in an interaction called the “Fujiwara effect.”
Cruz said that Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon would experience cloudiness and occasional rains.
Public Storm Signal No. 3 remains hoisted over Ilocos Norte, Apayao, the Batanes Group of Islands, and northern Cagayan, including Babuyan and Calayan Islands.
Signal No. 2 is up in Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga and the rest of Cagayan.
Signal No. 1 is raised over La Union, Benguet, Mountain Province and northern Isabela.

Yung Hong Kong Forecast(kulay pula), pabalik uli...

[H1Tman]

Here we go again.

Sometimes I want to tell PAGASA "COME ON GUYS, EVERYTHING'S POSSIBLE!" so let's not make the people worry about something we are not sure about.

It's driving us crazy.

[Zeus]

Bumalik na nga si Pepeng...

'Pepeng' starts to move inland again

abs-cbnNEWS.com | 10/06/2009 6:11 PM


'Quedan' to exit RP, heading to Okinawa, Japan


MANILA - Weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday that tropical storm "Pepeng" (international code name Parma) has started to move inland again towards the northwesternmost part of Luzon, as typhoon "Quedan" (international code name Melor) still moves its way towards Okinawa in Japan.
The bureau's 5 p.m. bulletin placed Pepeng at 50 kilometers north of Laoag City (18.7°N, 120.6°E), moving in a southeastward directioin towards the Ilocos Norte/northern Cagayan area. (See forecast track here)
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 105 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph.
Public Storm Warning Signal Number 3 has been raised over Batanes, northern Cagayan (including the Babuyan and Calayan groups of islands), Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, and Ilocos Sur. These areas are expected to experience winds of up to 100-135 kph.
Public Storm Warning Signal Number 2 (60-100 kph winds) has been raised over the rest of Cagayan, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Benguet, and La Union.
Isabela, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya and Pangasinan, meanwhile, are under Signal Number 1 (30-60 kph winds).
"Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides," the bulletin said.
"Those living along the coast in areas under signals #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the tropical storm," it added.
PAGASA weather bureau chief Nathaniel Cruz, in a 5 p.m. press briefing, said that Pepeng is forecast to slowly move towards the southwest, heading towards the South China Sea still off the Ilocos coast, in the next 3 days.
He said that Pepeng will remain "almost stationary" as it interacts with Quedan, and most parts of northern Luzon will experience stormy weather.
Meanwhile, PAGASA said that as of 4 p.m. Tuesday, typhoon "Quedan" was located at 900 kms east northeast of Basco, Batanes (24.4°N, 131.0°E) with maximum sustained winds of 165 kph and gustiness of up to 200 kph.
Cruz said that if Quedan's movement remains constant in the next few hours, it is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibiliy by Tuesday evening.
He said that the bureau is expected to issue a final bulletin on Quedan Tuesday evening.
PAGASA administrator Prisco Nilo, meanwhile, said that they will only be releasing bulletins starting 11 p.m. Tuesday, ending the live press conferences that were aired from the PAGASA offices since the onslaught of tropical storm Ondoy (international code name Ketsana).
Reservoirs
Meanwhile, the PAGASA also reported that as of 4 p.m. the Ambuklao, Binga, and Pantabangan dams have open spillways due to increased water levels.
The bureau also said that due to the rising water levels in San Roque Dam, they are in coordination with the National Power Corporation and local government units in the area for a poan to possibly open the said dam by Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning to release water.
Also, due to forecast rains in the watershed of the Magat Dam, the said dam's spillway might also be opened.

[boybi]

Kawawa naman yung mga taga Norte, 4 days nang namamasyal si Pepeng sa kanila.

[renzo_d10]

Pepeng weakens and expected to leave RP in the weekend.

MANILA - After almost two weeks of stormy weather, Metro Manila and parts of Luzon and the Visayas can look forward to sunny days ahead as tropical storm Pepeng (international codename Parma) is forecast to leave the country this weekend, weather bureau PAGASA said Wednesday.
PAGASA weather branch chief Nathaniel Cruz said "Pepeng" has now weakened further into a tropical depression with only 55 kph winds near the center as of 10 a.m.
"Gradual improvement of the weather is expected by Saturday as tropical depression Pepeng hopefully moves to the Pacific Ocean. In Metro Manila and the rest of the country, expect some cloudiness and isolated rainshowers but that is no longer the effect of Pepeng," Cruz said in a press briefing.
Cruz said Storm Signal No. 1 remains in effect over the Batanes Group of Islands, Cagayan, Babuyan Island, Calayan Island, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Sur, Mountain Province, Isabela and Ifugao. Public storm signals elsewhere are now lowered, he added.
He said "Pepeng" is expected to move east northeast slowly in the next couple of days, bringing slight rain in Northern Luzon. He said PAGASA is also monitoring a low pressure area forming 1,800 km east of the Visayas as of Wednesday morning.
As of 10 a.m, four reservoirs in Luzon are still releasing water due to continuous rain brought by the tropical depression. The four are: Ambuklao and Binga Dams in Benguet; Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija and San Roque Dam in Pangasinan.
A radio dzMM report on Wednesday said ten Pangasinan towns were alerted after the water level at the San Roque Dam reached 285 meters or five meters above its spilling level.
A separate report received by ABS-CBN Dagupan said the dam's management started releasing water early morning Wednesday and continued until 8 a.m.
Authorities said the dam's water level rose due to continuous rains over the province.
The water released from the dam will flow through water channels along the towns of San Manuel, San Nicolas, Sta. Maria, Asingan, Villasis, Tayug, Alcala, Bautista, Rosales and Bayambang.

Yahoo! News

[emms1121]

Lugi na mga car wash dito sa La Union at Isabela.. mataas pa rin ilog.. i work in La Union at bahay ko nasa isabela..
Mahina naman na hangin pero ulan tuloy tuloy pa rin..

[Jun aka Pekto]

It would drive me nuts trying to forecast this storm's track.......AAARGH!

A lot of forecasters are working overtime on this one.

The only good thing about this forecast is the storm weakening because it'll be over land for so long. Some cooler air must be pushing south from China or there's too much shear aloft which will hinder any re-intensification. Looks like JTWC is keeping it a tropical depression at the end of the forecast period.

I'm sure they have far bigger worries up north towards Japan.


This is one of those tropical systems that will be reviewed over and over (horror stories) not because of its strength but because it was such a pain to forecast.

[kinyo]

so they missed the effect of that high pressure in china, which caused pepeng to back out a bit ... and now that high pressure is probably gone, with the pressure at the east maybe higher, they are now again forcasting the usual route, westbound?

from the looks of it, it looks like pepeng have the tendency to be attracted by melong, now in japan, so baka mag-northbound sya ... ah ewan, kaya nga ang tawag sa mga yan bagyo eh, pabago-bago isip!

[Jun aka Pekto]

so they missed the effect of that high pressure in china, which caused pepeng to back out a bit ... and now that high pressure is probably gone, with the pressure at the east maybe higher, they are now again forcasting the usual route, westbound?

from the looks of it, it looks like pepeng have the tendency to be attracted by melong, now in japan, so baka mag-northbound sya ... ah ewan, kaya nga ang tawag sa mga yan bagyo eh, pabago-bago isip!

I have my doubts it's simply a matter of Pepeng being attracted towards Melor.

What keeps a tropical system tracking westward is usually a strong (semi-permanent) High over the Pacific. The center of the High is way out there. But it has "ridges" or arms of high pressure extending hundreds to thousands of miles out. Highs in the Northern Hemisphere have a clockwise motion. So, if a ridge extends westward from a High east of the Philippines, a typhoon has to get around that ridge. Hence it moves westward. Once it rounds the corner (where the ridge ends), it then starts moving northeastward because of the Earth's rotation. The northwest quadrant of a High moves towards the northeast or if we're talking about where the wind is coming from, southwesterly. Same premise for the southwest monsoon.

[Jun aka Pekto]

If you notice, tracing a route around west of the High is very similar to the route taken by many typhoons. It starts moving westward then curving northwestward to northward to northeastward.

Pepeng isn't attracted to Melor in my view. If they came into close proximity, they'd tear each other apart since their flows oppose each other. If the ridge from the Pacific High weakened then Pepeng will follow the same track as Melor (but it's not because of attraction).

JTWC has Pepeng moving westward once more. That could be due to two things: 1. The ridge from the Pacific High re-established or 2. There's a High over eastern China that'll keep Pepeng from moving north.

[Jun aka Pekto]

This loop shows it all. Notice what's going on in China and northeast of the Philippines (actually, more like east of Guam). High pressure center/ridges over both places. If this holds true, Pepeng has nowhere to go but west.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/m...K_PRECIP_WINDS

Notice near the end as that High pressure ridge to the east weakens or "deforms" due to a front over Japan, a new tropical system makes that turn north a lot farther away east of the Philippines.

[kinyo]

yes, Pepeng moved westerly as forecasted ... and although its center now appears to be over water on the west, its body is still wrecking havoc on northern luzon

san roque dam is releasing water at 3,156 cu.m/sec ... parts of pangasinan roads are not passable anymore,e.g. in Urdaneta, bus trips are cancelled ... in baguio, landslide occurred somewhere, people are scampering for safety and all roads to the city are closed ... accdg to bombo radyo reports

[Revenant]

Papunta ako ng Baguio kagabi kasi magkikita kami dapat ng erpat ko kaninang madaling araw para i-relay nya sa akin yung collections and undelivered medicines nya. Sira pa naman yung car radio ko kaya hindi ako makapakinig ng balita nun.

Buti na lang may naikabit akong hands-free na phone set kaya nasagot ko young phone nung tawagan nya ako. Muntikan na raw sya run sa landslide sa Baguio tapos binabaha na raw sa Pangasinan, La Union & Tarlac.

Nasa Gerona/MacArthur Highway na ako nung makita ko yung tubig na parang mabilis na tumataas. Biglang bwelta ako pabalik ng SCTEX. Ang hirap pa namang mag-drive nun kasi ang lakas na ng ulan tapos ang dilim pa.

Pagkauwi ko medyo hysterical pa yung ermat ko kasi yung mga kamag-anak nya sa Pangasinan & La Union hindi na ma-contact.

[chua_riwap]

Bakit puro US choppers ang naririnig kong (sa ANC) nagre-rescue sa mga stranded sa Pangasinan? Wala talagang gamit AFP natin.......

[Revenant]

2 dike ‘di kinaya si ‘Pepeng’

Dalawang dike sa Pangasinan ang nasira matapos na hindi kayanin ang ibinuhos na ulan ng bagyong “Pepeng" na halos isang linggong nanatili sa teritorya ng Pilipinas.

Ayon kay Pangasinan Rep. Mark Cojuangco (5th district), nais niyang malaman kung nagkaroon ng kapabayaan sa pagpapakawala ng tubig sa mga dam, partikular sa Agno na dahilan ng matinding pagbaha sa lalawigan.

“The heavy flooding in the province is unprecedented," ayon kay Cojuangco, anak ng business tycoon na si Eduardo “Danding" Cojuangco.

Sinuportahan ni An Waray party-list Rep. Florencio “Bem" Noel ang pahayag ni Cojuangco upang mabigyan ng sapat na impormasyon ang publiko sa sistema ng pagpapakawala ng tubig tuwing may malakas na bagyo.

[_Cathy_]

2 dike ‘di kinaya si ‘Pepeng’.

Something's not right with this headline

[Jun aka Pekto]

yes, Pepeng moved westerly as forecasted ... and although its center now appears to be over water on the west, its body is still wrecking havoc on northern luzon

san roque dam is releasing water at 3,156 cu.m/sec ... parts of pangasinan roads are not passable anymore,e.g. in Urdaneta, bus trips are cancelled ... in baguio, landslide occurred somewhere, people are scampering for safety and all roads to the city are closed ... accdg to bombo radyo reports

The onshore flow component of a tropical system is always bad because of the heavy rains and/or storm surges. It's usually worse if the onshore flow is at the southeast quadrant of the storm where the wind flow is from the southwest and has the potential to bring in warmer, moister air from the south. It's the same thing with Ondoy when it flooded Manila. I imagine that's what PAGASA means whenever they say a tropical system is intensifying the Southwest Monsoon.