Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[Jun aka Pekto]

We have an erratic PAGASA who keeps on blaming erratic weather systems (e.g. Ramil). Though conservative forecasting and erring on the side of safety, we cannot discount the money spent and effort exerted for 'preparedness'. JMA et al have been forecasting turnaround of a Ramil a full week ahead of PAGASA & PAGASA didn't forecast a turnaround not until Ramil actually turned around, making PAGASA a bonafide POSTCASTER, prolonging the fear and anxiety of the people.
And now, instead of explaining the turnaround of Ramil & the reason they deviated from the flock of credible weather forecasting agencies, they're now focusing on a new weather system 23 of which information is available from JTWC.

There's enough blame to go around. Even JTWC was way off. The rest just kind of kept quiet hoping a consistent trend would show up. The JMA too had been wrong in the past.

As for being prepared, you should be prepared 24 hours a day knowing you live in a typhoon-prone region.

I mean of you have a better way of doing their job, let's hear it.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Looks like it...Hope this track will be way off the mark like the last one. Manila is on its sights.

The models have been notoriously unreliable beyond 48 hours. But looking at long range GFS products, the subtropical ridge over the Pacific and strong high pressure over the mainland will keep the track westward.

Again, would I put money on it? Again, no. At least not until I've seen several model runs and detect a consistency.

If the model run pans out, there's another one right on the heels of 23W.

[Monseratto]

This new one is tracking a lot faster than Ramil, which took a week to close in and then fortunately quit at the last minute.

[Jun aka Pekto]

As of 4pm, the observation for RPLL is:

RPLL 270800Z 12008KT 9999 FEW025 31/22 Q1009 NOSIG RMK A2980

A temperature of 31C and dewpoint of 22?

Just wondering if it feels a little less humid this afternoon over there with the winds coming from the interior rather than from the west. I noticed there hasn't been much of a southwesterly flow since yesterday.

[Monseratto]

Update typhoon MIRINAE

[valvura]

There's enough blame to go around. Even JTWC was way off. The rest just kind of kept quiet hoping a consistent trend would show up. The JMA too had been wrong in the past.
As for being prepared, you should be prepared 24 hours a day knowing you live in a typhoon-prone region.
I mean of you have a better way of doing their job, let's hear it.

I can now view several typhoon warning agencies using the internet and this practice is now being applied by leading media stations e.g. GMA & ABS-CBN, in their weather reporting.
IMO, baka puede mag interpolate muna PAGASA if wala pa silang establish na direction (due to crude equipment?). Anyway, it's only PAGASA ang walang pang storm trajectory forecast until now, notwithstanding lahat ng agencies ay nag forecast na tatama sa central-northern Luzon.

[Monseratto]

For those going to the cemetary, I hope common sense would prevail if the weather turns sour.

[valvura]

[Jun aka Pekto]

I can now view several typhoon warning agencies using the internet and this practice is now being applied by leading media stations e.g. GMA & ABS-CBN, in their weather reporting.
IMO, baka puede mag interpolate muna PAGASA if wala pa silang establish na direction (due to crude equipment?). Anyway, it's only PAGASA ang walang pang storm trajectory forecast until now, notwithstanding lahat ng agencies ay nag forecast na tatama sa central-northern Luzon.

Beats me. Maybe it's because the tracks change so often although in this latest one, I don't see any reason to doubt the westward track. It's almost winter far up to the north and the Siberian High will soon establish itself along with the subtropical ridge being dominant farther south.

You could always ask PAGASA why they don't have a forecast track. If you don't provide feedback to them, they won't have any incentive to change.

[Monseratto]

Typhoon Santi is moving faster than expected and may make landfall friday morning or even earlier. Be extremely cautious, especially those travelling...

Robert Sawi, weather forecaster for the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, said they expect Santi was expected to intensify into a typhoon and enter the Philippines’ area of responsibility Wednesday night.

Sawi said the storm was spotted 1,390 kilometers east of Central Luzon. It was packing maximum winds of 120 kilometers per hour with gustiness of up to 150 kilometers per hour. It was forecast to move west at 22 kilometers per hour. At this pace, it could make landfall on Saturday.

“Based on the models we have seen, it is likely to make landfall somewhere in northern or central Luzon,” Sawi said. “There will be lots of rain when the storm comes.”

While it was possible for Santi to slow down, as previous storms did, Sawi said it was unlikely for this howler to change course and will continue to move westward because of the ridge of a high-pressure area extending over a wide area north of the country.

“That ridge is serving like an umbrella blocking a northward course,” he said.

Sawi advised the public to continue monitoring Pagasa’s bulletins on the progress of the the storm and bring umbrellas and other rain gear when they go to cemeteries.

“If possible, it would be better if they stay at home if the storm comes because we expect a lot of rain, especially in the northern part of Luzon,” Sawi said.

[valvura]

Note Santi's landfall below. "30/18Z" would translate in Philippine time: Oct. 31, Saturday, 2:00 am. Exit from land will be 2:00 pm of the same day.

[Monseratto]

Forcasted to be closest to Manila at around 8 PM Saturday 10/31 from the HK Observatory



Other Tracks seem to agree on a early Saturday landfall...

[_Cathy_]

I just saw in CNN that the typhoon will passing really really close to Manila. They also mentioned that there's a possibility of Mayon Volcano erupting???

[Zeus]

Forcasted to be closest to Manila at around 8 PM Saturday 10/31 from the HK Observatory



Other Tracks seem to agree on a early Saturday landfall...

Tama, sabi ng PAGASA baka dumaan o dadaan malapit sa Metro Manila si Santi, kaya ingat na lang tayo...

[Monseratto]

Note Santi's landfall below. "30/18Z" would translate in Philippine time: Oct. 31, Saturday, 2:00 am. Exit from land will be 2:00 pm of the same day.

Based on the latest forecast from JTWC, Manila may suffer a near hit compared to earlier forcast maps.




One of the forecast tracks puts Manila directly in the typhoon's path...

[xtremerider]

Based on the latest forecast from JTWC, Manila may suffer a near hit compared to earlier forcast maps.




One of the forecast tracks puts Manila directly in the typhoon's path...

Hope our weather bureau is accurate this time...most of the time eh sablay sila eh...

[Jun aka Pekto]

It also has been almost a week since this typhoon was first detected. I hope you guys spent that time stocking up just in case or formulating a Plan B to get to higher ground in case it floods again.

[Monseratto]

Oh crap...JTWC Forecast map now shows it closer than before.



Two forecast tracjectories are now showing Manila in or close to the typhoon's path.

[Monseratto]

Manila will be spared from a direct hit but still too close for comfort according to JTWC.



But other forecast tracks predict otherwise...

[Monseratto]

Storm Signal No. 2 raised over Metro Manila, 16 provinces


MANILA, Philippines—Storm Signal No. 2 was raised over Metro Manila and 16 other provinces in Central and Southern Luzon and the Bicol Region as Typhoon “Santi” (international codename: Mirinae) continued to move closer to the Aurora-Quezon area Friday, the state weather bureau said.

With Metro Manila under Signal No. 2, Teresita Domalanta, NCR director of the Department of Education, announced the suspension of classes in the elementary and high school levels in public and private schools.

In areas where the storm signals were raised, residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes were advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.