Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[Hanren]

good thing we have these alternate weather forecasting sources other than PAGASA. most probably sa above sources din nakuha ng PAGASA yung dalawang possible weather disturbances this week. Less than 24 hours lang ang PAGASA warning of the storm 'Ondoy' to hit Central Luzon and there was no wide area flooding forecast for greater Metro Manila. Please note the weather news last Sept. 25, Friday from GMA 7 (HISTORICAL CHRONOLOGY):

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173115/o...northern-luzon



http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173177/o...under-signal-2



http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173211/f...ights-canceled

PAGASA cannot be considered as weather 'forecaster' or even weather 'newscaster'. better kung weather 'history-caster'

I don't know if this is the proper thread to express disappointment with PAGASA.

PAGASA cannot really make accurate rain forecasts because they lack equipment (doppler radar, etc). Kung sana inuna yung funding para sa mga equipment at personnel, eh sana maaasahan talaga sila.

I often don't really on forecasts made by PAGASA everytime I have major travel plans during this storm season. But there were times that other International weather forecasting bureaus (such as CNN, JTWC, and UK Met) have also made typhoon track errors pero tumugma naman yung sa PAGASA. In short, since hindi naman talaga exact science and weather forecasting, mas kailangan pa talaga ng matinding support in terms of funding ang agency.

And PAGASA tend to issue very general and ambigious statements such as:

"..the storm will induce the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western part of Luzon and Visayas"



Such statements have become all too familiar that people who come across it everyday tend to ignore it already. Palagi na lang natin naririnig yan at parang walang nagbago.

But when I came across the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Prognosis, the forecast team wrote that the "..deepest convections (or rain clouds) are confined and concentrated to the West/Southwest because the eastern portion of the storm is being sheared or being blown away". Kaya kahit medyo tama yung forecast track ng PAGASA, hindi naman nila sinabi na ang volume ng ulan eh sa bandang Metro Manila. The winds did not do a lot of damage. It was the rains that did it.

They can always blame climate change but PAGASA should adapt to these times. Yung information dissemination nila still needs improvement. Sa amin dito sa Baguio signal number two pero ilang beses sumikat ang araw. Ask the man on the street and he or she will tell you "ganito ba ang signal number 2?"

In short,it still boils down to funding and support. Years ago, there were proposals already to increase the capability of PAGASA but I don't know what happened to those proposals.

I know it's not time to pass the blame on agencies or people but we should have learned our lessons years ago.

[redgreen]

you are so right
squaters shouldn't thrive to places they shouldn't be.

[renzo_d10]

Typhoon Peping just entered philippines.

[Lucius]

Asa pa kayo sa PAGASA eh mga random nerds lang yan an pinagsamasama for sure Google Earth/Maps pinagkakaabalahan ng mga un sa office

San mo nakuha yang news renzo? Galing ba PAGASA yan? If it is, baka hindi accurate yan

[renzo_d10]

^^ It's from TV Patrol World ( or was it in News Patrol? ) Anyways, yeah it's from PAG-ASA.

[mazzipino]

I've always wondered about PAGASA myself. Few times this year, it has been raining hard where I live and when I check the PAGASA website satellite, the rain is far away.

[chua_riwap]

As per PAG-ASA, Pepeng might morph into a "Super Typhoon". It's now packing winds of 120 kph, and may pass N.Luzon.....

[renzo_d10]

^^ What now? It's stronger than Ondoy? :parning:

I`ve remembered that PAGASA also announced before that Ondoy will hit N. Luzon, but it eventually hit MM. So does that mean that there's also a possibility that Peping will hit MM? :blue:

Oh BTW, does anyone know when typhoon peping hit N. Luzon? Any estimate dates ? I`ve got my batteries ready already.

[Jun aka Pekto]

If that typhoon does pass over Northern Luzon versus stopping off the East Luzon coast then veering north (based on the forecast track a few days ago), guess where the potential for enhanced southwest monsoon flow will be? Deja vu?

[chua_riwap]

Here it is, about Pepeng.........



http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173480/p...-super-typhoon

'Pepeng' enters RP, threatens to become super typhoon


Less than a week after tropical storm "Ondoy" (Ketsana) devastated Metro Manila and some provinces in the Central Luzon and Calabarzon regions and leaving over 200 people dead and thousands more homeless , a powerful new cyclone entered Philippine territory Wednesday afternoon.

Nathaniel Cruz, weather bureau chief of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said typhoon Pepeng (international name: Parma) may even intensify into a super typhoon.

"Pumasok na sa area of responsibility (ang) bagyong papangalanan nating 'Pepeng.' Pumasok siya mga 2 p.m. (The cyclone named Pepeng entered our area of responsibility at 2 p.m.)," Cruz said in an interview on dzRH radio.

Cruz said Pepeng is packing maximum winds of 120 kph and may pass Northern Luzon on its way to Taiwan. "Kung tuloy tuloy at di magbabago ang direction tatama sa dulo ng Northern Luzon hanggang Taiwan (If it does not change direction it is likely to hit the Northern Luzon-Taiwan area)," he said.

In its 5 p.m. advisory, Pagasa said that as of 4 p.m., Pepeng was 940 kms east of Surigao City. It is moving west-northwest at 22 kph and is expected to be 630 kms east-northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar by Thursday afternoon.

He said that even if Pepeng would not make landfall, it would enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains to parts of the country either on Friday or Saturday.

"By Friday afternoon it is expected to be 430 kms northeast of Borongan, Samar. By Saturday afternoon it is expected to be 290 kms north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 330 kms east of Casiguran, Aurora, the advisory said.

"This disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country within the next 24-36 hours," it added.

Cruz said Pepeng may still intensify into a super typhoon, as it is expected to remain at sea for the next two to three days. "Puwede po, babantayan natin yan (It can intensify into a super typhoon. We are monitoring it)," he said.

He urged the public to be ready for the typhoon. "Maging handa na tayo kahit wala diyan (We must be ready for it even if it has not made landfall)," he said.

Pepeng entered Philippine territory less than a week after Ondoy left at least 246 people dead. The government had said it is ready for Pepeng and has readied plans for forced evacuation of people living near areas at risk. - GMANews.TV