Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[Zeus]

Signal number 2 na tayo sa Metro Manila, pero walang ulan, at walang hangin pero makikita mo sa track ni Santi dadaan nga malapit sa Metro Manila bukas...

[Gen. Miting]

hay nako puros trajectory. just watch the red one from the pagasa image. when ondoy was at its greatest strength, M.M. was directly under the red zone. don't give much attention to the point or the eye. lagi naman mahina sa eye, in fact, sa eye nga eh calm. diba ganun sa day after tom. ang isipin nyo gano kataas/ka-wide ang category neto.

i was tracking pepeng when it first entered the bicol region. it was smaller than this one. signal #2 na tayo with weaker winds of up to 60 to 100kph, so expect less wind and expect more rainfall. and if you go to SM Marikina, halos hindi pa natatanggal ang basura dito > meaning if pasig river, floodway river, and all other rivers are not 100% cleared kahit signal #2 pa din, malaki chances ng baha bec. we are still clogged all over

so what can we really expect, if it enters on the nearby rizal side of the pacific. yare bec. we have no big mountains to protect us or to weaken it. just like ondoy.

kaya ako takbo na ulit sa higher ground mga tsikot, pati mga signature clothes, shades, shoes, lcd, laptop etc....

[Gen. Miting]

I just saw in CNN that the typhoon will passing really really close to Manila. They also mentioned that there's a possibility of Mayon Volcano erupting???

then it will be just like pinatubo possibly. sino ba nanood dito sa discovery channel? naalala nyo ba ang pinatubo

when pinatubo erupted, a perfect storm passed above it. hence, lahar distributed to the entire central luzon. kahit na mga tiga-pampanga na malayo naman sa pinatubo, affected.

this will happen if this santi typhoon shifts down to the bicol area. ano nga kaya?

[ghosthunter]

Those in Metro Manila, get your stuff ready. :****:

[Rev!t]

[SIZE=3]5-Day Forecast [/SIZE]

same from www.wunderground.com

[SIZE=3][Real-time] Satellite Image[/SIZE]



Details on the upper-left corner of image:

[Zeus]

Signal 3 na Metro Manila, wala pa rin hangin at ulan dito

[renzo_d10]

^^ Dito din. Baka mamaya pa ?

[JJGF]

hindi gumagalaw mga dahon ng puno dito sa area ko sa valenzuela...walang kahangin hangin hhhmmmm.. baka nga mamaya pa?

[Zeus]

wala pa rin hangin, pero sabi mga 2am to 6am daw dadaan sa Metro Manila si Santi, kaya ingat na lang mga Tsikoteers

[renzo_d10]

2am to 6am ? :faint:

Hanggang kelan siya sa land ?

[Monseratto]

I hope it will ba a quickie... Pag gising mo, tapos na pala.

[artpogi]

umaambon na dito sa Mandaluyong Pioneer

[renzo_d10]

I hope it will ba a quickie... Pag gising mo, tapos na pala.

Onga, pero sana, wag lang bumaha. :pope:

umaambon na dito sa Mandaluyong Pioneer

Dito din. 10pm - 12mn daw landfall.

[mazzipino]

Very light rain here sa Las Pinas, no winds yet.....

[_Cathy_]

Kawawa mga tao kung babaha ng madaling araw.

[Jun aka Pekto]

The latest observation and forecast for NAIA:

RPLL 301100Z 26009KT 6000 -RA SCT023 OVC090 27/26 Q1006 TEMPO 4000 RA RMK CONTUS LGT RA RMK A2971
RPLL 301100Z 3012/3112 24015KT 6000 -RA SCT023 BKN290 OVC290 TX28/3106Z TN23/3022Z
TEMPO 3012/30128 02035G20KT 5000 RA FEW020CB SCT022 OVC090
TEMPO 3019/3023 VRB60G85KT 1000 +RA FEW010 SCT018 OVC070
TEMPO 3104/3109 220G35KT 5000 TSRA/+RA FEW018CB SCT022 OVC080

19z-23z is from 3am-7am October 31.

Sustained wind of 60 knots is 111 kph. Gust of 85 knots is 157 kph along with heavy rains.

The quality control leaves a lot to be desired though.

On the first tempo line, the time should be 3012/3018. Also, the forecaster probably meant winds of 02020G35KT.

On the last tempo line, it should either be 22035KT (no G) or 220xxG35KT where xx is the sustained wind speed.

I can sympathize with the forecaster who's probably stressed out like a chicken with its head cut off what with a typhoon headed his way. I've been in that spot long ago

But, ya still gotta keep your cool and maintain a quality control on the stuff you put out. That many mistakes on a 4-line forecast........

Then the first line has BKN290 and OVC290? I smell a rookie.

[Chikselog]

already raining here in Valenzuela..i hope bukas ng kahit mga hapon na eh wala na sa lupa yung bagyo at wag nang umulan, para pagdating ng nov.1 makakadalaw pa kami, kasi the storm accelerated right?

[Jun aka Pekto]

Latest forecast for NAIA.....

RPLL 301600Z 28012KT 4000 RA SCT023 OVC090 24/24 Q1003 NOSIG RMK CONTUS MOD RA RMK A2962
RPLL 301700Z 3018/3118 12015KT 7000 -RA SCT022 OVC090 TX28/3106Z TN23/3022Z
TEMPO 3018/3024 02060G85KT 1000 +RA FEW012 SCT018 OVC080
TEMPO 3101/3107 16030G50KT 4000 TSRA/+RA FEW012 SCT018 OVC080
TEMPO 3101/3107 16030G50KT 4000 TSRA/ +RA FEW018CB SCT020 OVC090

Much better forecast although the last line should've been deleted since it serves no purpose and has a typo.

I don't know their reasoning for the forecast. But me personally, I would've had a westerly and southwesterly wind component to go with the heaviest rain (rather than the northeasterly wind on the forecast). Of course, I'm not privvy to what they're looking at. I'm basing it on what's available to me which is limited as well. We'll see over the next 24 hours. I do expect the home team to be correct rather than me.

Anyway, 60kt sustained winds with 85kt gusts are still expected 2am-8am. The chance for prolonged heavy rain is still there.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Double Post

[Monseratto]