Russia's 'invasion and occupation' of Ukrainian territory.

[uls]

how long will it take for ukraine to take back all its territory?

will it happen this year?

[uls]

naka plano na talaga ang f16

The F-16s are already happening. Bill passed in July funded the training and pilots who speak English were selected in November by Ukraine for it. We're just not announcing it until they are ready is what's probably happening.

[kisshmet]

how long will it take for ukraine to take back all its territory?

will it happen this year?

maybe when russia can no longer manufacture their own weapons that could burn leopard, leclerc, challenger, abrams tanks, tornado, rafale, f16, f15, f18, f35, and f22 jets

its NATO expansion being pushed back by russia

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[Egan101]

Tired of all these proxy war crap! Why don’t they just freaking start a full scale war with Russia?

Para matapos na at magkaalaman na kung sino pinakasiga.

China will just sit down, relax, and let them burn each other. Hehehe


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[EQAddict]

All the experts were wrong at the start so am not gonna follow anyone's predictions. But there are trends that we can help us make a guess:

- the 10 to 1 volume of artillery strikes advantage the russians had at the start of the war is now 1:1. Thats a crazy trend.

- this is an artillery duel with both air forces relegated to the sidelines. Most of the Russian mechanized losses have come from artillery and atgms. Russia and the Ukraine are desperately sourcing ammunition for their guns. Russia going to North Korea for ammo and the west supplying Ukraine.

- europe and The USA are massively expanding their ammunition production. They are learning their lessons here...high tech platforms and smart weapons are one thing...but volume of artillery barrages is another. The USA will increase its 155mm artillery shell production 600% by 2024. This shows they are in it for the long haul and will be shoving these shells at Ukraine as fast as the Ukranians can fire them.

- its a drone war. From big to small...we have never ever seen a war fought on such an intimate scale where small drones are taking out individual fox holes. Who can maximize the drones for intelligence, artillery fire correction and lethal strikes will definitely benefit.

- the russians have 20x the manpower. Life is cheap and meaningless to them. They execute their own without remorse. They show no signs of valuing their soldiers unlike the Ukranians for whom every loss matters. Can the ukranians hold before the russians find their human wave loses intollerable?

- China and India arent giving weapons (yet) to Russia. India probably wont ever. China obviously doesnt want sanctions. Russia is counting on other dictatorships like Iran and North Korea who have serious ballistic missle capabilties.

- Nato and the rest obviously are pouring a sh*t ton of gear into ukraine and the value and return on their support has been HUge. The flood of anti aircraft artillery and missles systems after the energy strikes has seriously made a dent in the Russian cruise and hypersonic missle stockpiles. These SAM systems have obviously made the skies over Ukraine unsafe for the vaunted russian airforce and they are forced to fire their missles from within their own territory. The ukrainians still have an Air force which is amazing.


- who can sustain Aid more to ukraine [emoji1255] will probably win this bloody battle of attrition. It seems the West has the financial and mindeset muscle to win that calculus.

- the main battle tanks that are coming are just the first tranche. As the allies see that the Ukranians are using them effectively...they will throw more metal into the battlefield. Thats a clear pattern of their Aid. Heck the most advanced SAM system in the world...the Patriot is being handed over. 3 batteries or 4 if i am not mistaken. Not to mention the NASMS and Iris-T and cold war era Hawk sam systems as well ss the Manpads.

- fighter jets are next. That will definitely even the scales. I for one cant wait for more ass russian and wagner ass to be kicked. Then we will see....





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[shadow]

Hinde ko talaga makalimutan mga expert na sinasabi that it will only take days Russia to defeat Ukraine.


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[dr. d]

Hinde ko talaga makalimutan mga expert na sinasabi that it will only take days Russia to defeat Ukraine.


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"perhaps they assumed the enemy would not fight back..."
heh heh.

"no battle plan survives first contact (with the enemy)."

[uls]

Afghanistan

the US spent 20 yrs and more than 2 trillions dollars but couldn't defeat a bunch of goatherders

[EQAddict]

Afghanistan

the US spent 20 yrs and more than 2 trillions dollars but couldn't defeat a bunch of goatherders

Iba talaga will of the Taliban. They were willing to wait and die. The willingness to die is very rare. Modern countries populations dont have this often. But the Taliban felt it an honor to die for their beliefs. Thats a special power no amount of weaponry can defeat. And they were Very patient. They played the looong game. 20 years....different breed afghan warriors Mujahideen.... i despise them but i respect their bravery and fear their fanaticism.

And they knew the so called Allies of the Americans were weak and corrupt. No amount of money was gonna cure that rot.

The people also had no long term will to fight against the brutal Taliban. All the brave individual warriors were slowly hunted down and killed by the Taliban even at terrible cost to themselves. In the end...no one was willing to fight them cause they knew it would catch up with them eventually. Unpopular war.......

Russians, British, Americans...the result was the same. Tactical victories. Strategic defeat.

Time is the strongest weapon of all.

In Ukraine...vast majority are willing to fight and kick Russian ass. Thats a big difference.



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[carxynogen]

Its a long thread na but tamad akong i backtrack to read about the invasion in Crimea.
What's Putin's reason of invading Crimea? Will there be a threat from US or West during that time?

Also, I remember Putin's ambition when he first came to power is to get back the old USSR territory.
And Ukraine is one of that territory.
So what he is doing in Ukraine is just fulfilling that dream.

[tsupermario]

russia attacked ukraine -> pre-emptive move vs EU + NATO

[tsupermario]

Ukraine, which Russia has repeatedly attacked using hundreds of Shahed-136 loitering munitions (self-detonating drones) supplied by Iran since August, welcomed Saturday night's attack. Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tweeted: "Explosive night in Iran. Did warn you."

On Dec. 24, Podolyak called for the "liquidation of plants" Iran uses for producing drones and missiles.

Saturday's strike came shortly after the Israeli Ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, mentioned Iranian drones and missiles when he said Israel does more to help Ukraine than is publicly known.

"We help – albeit behind the scenes – and much more than is known," he told German media on Friday.

Asked why Israel has so staunchly refused to supply Ukraine military hardware, Prosor pointed to the Russian military presence in Syria. "As you know, the Israeli army regularly blocks arms shipments from Iran to Syria and Lebanon," he said. "These include Iranian drones and missiles that Russia is using in Ukraine."

Russia currently relies on shipments of hundreds of cheap Shahed loitering munitions to sustain the campaign against Ukraine's cities and electricity infrastructure it launched in September. It may also receive short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) by the end of the year, which would be far more difficult for Ukraine to defend itself against.

Destruction or sabotage of Iranian factories could hinder this ongoing campaign and successive ones, something Kyiv would doubtlessly welcome.

Covert Israeli Operations Against Iranian Missiles And Drone Plants Might Help Ukraine

[tsupermario]

US Navy probe: Iranian drone struck Israeli-linked tanker
November 22, 2022

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Investigators have concluded that an Iranian drone was used to bomb an oil tanker linked to an Israeli billionaire last week, the U.S. Navy said on Tuesday.

The drone attack on the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Pacific Zircon last Tuesday off the coast of Oman appears to be part of the long-running shadow war between Israel and its archenemy Iran that has included the targeting of Israeli-linked ships in strategic Mideast waterways.

The Navy said explosives experts boarded the ship to assess the damage, including a 30-inch-wide (76-centimeter) hole punched in its side, and to collect debris and bomb residue. The evidence was taken to a lab at the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Gulf Arab nation of Bahrain.

Navy investigators concluded that the drone used was an Iranian Shahed-136, the same kind of bomb-carrying drone Iran has supplied to Russia in its war on Ukraine. Iranian drones were used by Yemeni rebels to attack Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates earlier this year, the Navy said.

[Yatta]

OK lest listen to what the other side says. I mean, they are "western experts" so it should be free from the propaganda of CNN and BBC right?

https://www.youtube.com/live/FYRaNFY2zPw?feature=share

To be fair, yes its pretty silly to rely on wunderwaffen, but... "fall prey to superior Russian hand held anti-tank systems?" And "Russian tank factories are producing in the thousands"?!!!!! mass anti-war protests in Ukraine. Saan? conquest of Ukraine "in 3 days"- probably the same claim as 5 minutes from Cubao to Makati and 3-6months.

[uls]

Zelensky adviser mocked Iran after the drone strike

[Egan101]

If I were someone who can decide on strategic decisions for NATO, I’d find a way to get rid of Zelensky and make it look like the Russians did it. Hehehe

Heck, when hostilities do end, Zelensky is just a pawn in the global scheme of things for NATO. They will still get rid of him anyway.


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[dreamur]

If I were someone who can decide on strategic decisions for NATO, I’d find a way to get rid of Zelensky and make it look like the Russians did it. Hehehe

Heck, when hostilities do end, Zelensky is just a pawn in the global scheme of things for NATO. They will still get rid of him anyway.


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Calling Jack Ryan!

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[uls]

If I were someone who can decide on strategic decisions for NATO, I’d find a way to get rid of Zelensky and make it look like the Russians did it. Hehehe

Heck, when hostilities do end, Zelensky is just a pawn in the global scheme of things for NATO. They will still get rid of him anyway.


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i don't think EQ will agree that Zelensky is a pawn

he's a hero president fighting invaders

[Egan101]

With all the weapons he was given, he will surely become a problem later on. You might as well get rid of him once you have a clear indication that hostilities will slow down.

The US-UK-France sold Saddam the weapons he needed during the long Iran-Iraq War but became a big problem later. The US lost face when extremism took over Iran in the late 70s.

The US gave weapons to rich Arabs who thought it was their holy duty to help the Afghans fight the Russians. Osama bin Laden was one of those. Look at all the trouble he brought.


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[baludoy]

If only Putin had a little more patience then maybe he would've been able to hasten the end of the rule of zelensky even though he was elected only a year before the invasion.

Prior to the Russian military incision last year, zelensky's shaky administration was plagued w/ accusations of wholesale corruption. In fact, Ukraine was seen to be as the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe. The Ukrainian president's approval rating even hit less than 30% before 2020.

Kremlin should've just Inserted some destabilizers in kyiv and do some intensive black propaganda and then install a president covertly friendly to him. After all, creating internal strife is where the fsb excels at.

Nowadays, Volodomyr's approval rating is at a soaring 91%. I guess one could morbidly say the russo-ukrainian war was the best thing that happened to his flailing political career.

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