Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

continuation...

since the govt took a lot of money from the private sector the government should accelerate spending so the money gets pumped back into the economy

let the private sector earn that money back

thing is if the government doesn't spend fast enough

if they sit on the money they took from the private sector the economy will slow down

[minicarph]

continuation...


thats not to say hindi hihina ang economy

rising prices can slow down consumption and since PH economy is consumption driven, when the consumer pulls back, the economy slows down

kaya nakatutok sa earnings reports ang mga stock investors

everybody's looking for signs on whether the pinoy consumer is buying less

and indeed there are already signs

higher taxes take money away from the private sector

money that should have been spent on buying stuff gets confiscated by the govt

here's our money






to be continued

nope uls consumer spending is high. ako kasi lagi ako kung nasan bago. kanila lang nasa Landers Arcovia, grabe ang haba ng pila sa pizzahan. and haba din ng pila sa pagpapamember. and also Ayala Malls 30th and the New Podium have so many people these days.

basta alam ko people are smart nowadays, they go to places where this is value or bang for the buck experience. the FB Pages are leading the way, coz of so many promos. Promos that you will never read on print or even ads.

would I go to Eastwood, Glorietta, Greenhills these days to spend my money. a Big No. dami mas maganda malls and experience ngaun, why go to those old and aging mall styles of yesterdays.

kanina nga sa Landers, I got a big chilled carrot cake for only P499 for my dad. pang pre-father's day ko na yun bukas sa tatay ko hihi,

i also got green tea matcha powdered parang nescafe 3 in1, a small chunk of mozzarella cheese, a french vanilla cappucino powdered, all these are my tastes right now. sa Landers lang makikita. maybe in SNR too, pero S&R so jologs.

sa Arcovia, kasama ko mga kapitbahay ko tiga Valle Verde. and also have free haircut, kahit araw-araw ako magpagupit, basta may proof of purchase ka lang. and best of all, FREE PARKING!

[uls]

ngeeek

Landers shoppers don't represent...

anyway... let's wait nalang for further economic data

[A121]

continuation...


thats not to say hindi hihina ang economy

rising prices can slow down consumption and since PH economy is consumption driven, when the consumer pulls back, the economy slows down

kaya nakatutok sa earnings reports ang mga stock investors

everybody's looking for signs on whether the pinoy consumer is buying less

and indeed there are already signs

higher taxes take money away from the private sector

money that should have been spent on buying stuff gets confiscated by the govt

here's our money






to be continued

I think ito yung crowding out effect. Most lending is gobbled up by the public sector crowding out the private sector. Tingin ko napupunuan ng public sector yung pagbaba ng consumption ng private sector. But let's see.

[uls]

just some thoughts:



higher taxes act as a brake

you tax something high to discourage people from buying it

evidence -- look at motor vehicle sales

dunno about softdrinks i don't have data on softdrink sales

--

if govt economists are smart they know TRAIN law will slow down the economy if they don't offset it by spending the taxes they collected and spend it fast

--

it's weird that a govt will embark on an infrastruture spending spree when an economy is running hot

governments usually engage in stimulus spending when an economy is sluggish to make up for the lack of private sector spending

but our private sector spending is strong

--

the govt applies the brakes on consumer spending with TRAIN

yeah meron naman tax cuts so more take home pay

but higher prices easily offset the tax cuts

--

yes TRAIN caused inflation

so did the weaker peso (higher import prices)

so did rising global commodities prices since January 2018

a global trade war should hold down commodities prices as global trade slows down coz many countries put up protectionist barriers

[uls]

I think ito yung crowding out effect. Most lending is gobbled up by the public sector crowding out the private sector. Tingin ko napupunuan ng public sector yung pagbaba ng consumption ng private sector. But let's see.

the government better spend spend spend

[A121]

the government better spend spend spend

Looks like they really are.

[uls]

good morning

PHP weaker again this morning

BSP rate decision on June 20

[uls]

is USDPHP exchange rate now driving investor sentiment?

PSEI down 2.37%

[Monseratto]

As of June 18, 2018
10:02:00 AM

PSEi
7,352.97
DOWN-176.57
DOWN-2.34%▼

ALI
38.65
DOWN-0.50
DOWN-1.28%▼

AC
931.50
down -25.50
down 2.68%

[uls]

looks like the market is now seriously concerned over the falling peso

companies that have a lot of dollar debt raise your hands

[Lew_Alcindor]

looks like the market is now seriously concerned over the falling peso

companies that have a lot of dollar debt raise your hands

foreign investors pulling out their money. luge sila pag mababa ang piso.

[uls]

also demand for dollars as foreign funds sell stocks and convert PHP to dollars

demand for dollars driving USD higher

forcing more selling

feedback loop

[uls]

reposting this from May 30

friend: how much more can stocks fall?

me:





friend: seryoso?!

me: dunno... i just like drawing lines on charts

[A121]

also demand for dollars as foreign funds sell stocks and convert PHP to dollars

demand for dollars driving USD higher

forcing more selling

feedback loop

Plus you have a hawkish US Fed. Economists are divided if the BSP will be raising the rates soon.

[uls]

Plus you have a hawkish US Fed. Economists are divided if the BSP will be raising the rates soon.

actually market reaction to the Fed's rate hike last wednesday was negative

it was the reaction to the ECB last thursday that drove the euro lower which drove the dollar higher

so yeah it also has to do with dollar strength

--

yes according to a bloomberg survey 5 out of 8 economists are expecting the BSP to raise rates on wednesday

Sec Pernia said inflation has already peaked

if the BSP also believes that, then it's unlikely they'll do anything

[Monseratto]

People losing their jobs and going hungry...

Zest-O mulls factory closure if losses continue | Philstar.com

Police slammed for 'violent dispersal' of NutriAsia contractual workers - CNN Philippines

[uls]

People losing their jobs and going hungry...

Zest-O mulls factory closure if losses continue | Philstar.com

Police slammed for 'violent dispersal' of NutriAsia contractual workers - CNN Philippines

ung sa nutriasia mga protesters hindi daw empleyado

members daw ng kadamay

--

re zesto

this one also

Local juice maker halts production >> Manila Bulletin Business

Columbia International Food Products Inc., one of the country’s biggest candy manufacturers, has phased out its sugar-sweetened beverage product line, after it was rendered unviable following the implementation of higher taxes under the TRAIN Law.

Company president Reynaldo Y. Go said in a press conference they have decided to stop producing its beverage product “My Juice” because the government was asking them to pay P7.20 in excise tax for its P7.05 juice.

7.20 peso tax on 7 peso juice

wtf

[_Cathy_]

People losing their jobs and going hungry...

Zest-O mulls factory closure if losses continue | Philstar.com

Police slammed for 'violent dispersal' of NutriAsia contractual workers - CNN Philippines

Nooooooo That's one of the few products that survived from my childhood.

Pero bakit yung sodas, they seem to be doing fine? Economies of scale?

[uls]

Nooooooo That's one of the few products that survived from my childhood.

Pero bakit yung sodas, they seem to be doing fine? Economies of scale?

and people don't seem to be cutting back on softdrinks