Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

Yup. Deep, deep recession...

6 months from now, hinde ko alam kung paano na Pilipinas? Unemployment, businesses closing left and right.

Diyan talaga ako natatakot sa massive unemployment, it's not gonna be safe for everybody. First I'm afraid for peace na order then uncertainty we don't what will happen again 6 months lang ang iniisip ko I might be personally be affected, walang makapagsabi...

Write off na nga 2020. So come 2021 recovery kung meron pang maiwan na i-recover?

Do you think PH have the ability to dig us out of this hole?

Sana makabawi sa mga end of the year pay mag open na at fully adjusted na with China virus kahit wala pang vaccine.


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If the gov't doesn't pump money into the economy PH won't be able to get out of the hole

without gov't help it's gonna be a long recession (in other words a depression)

[shadow]

If the gov't doesn't pump money into the economy PH won't be able to get out of the hole

without gov't help it's gonna be a long recession (in other words a depression)

Nadagdag pa pala mga bumalik na OFW and I think repatriation will still continue hanggang next year. Ano ikakabuhay dito kung hinde na maka abroad ulit or at least not in the immediate future.


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[misseksaherada]

mga nabuntis pa na wala sa plano nung ECQ.. tapos mawalan pa ng trabaho.. Paktay ang mahal pa naman ng gatas ngayon..

[uls]

yeah dami pa OFW babalik

hirap sitwasyon ng Pinas

[uls]

good news para sa lahat ng tsikot members

2 POGO nag pack up



bad news lang para sa mga landlord

[BlancNoir]

good news para sa lahat ng tsikot members

2 POGO nag pack up



bad news lang para sa mga landlord

daming alphard and hi-ace for sale ngayon.

[shadow]

Good! Nag drama pa PAGCOR na dahil hinde na daw ma-take ng mga intsik yun racism dito. Ulol! Ayaw lang magbayad ng taxes kaya umalis.


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[carwhacko]

^^^

kung ilan milyon ang nawalan ng trabaho (di pa sure ilan talaga) lahat yan wala na income so wala sila pang gastos

ung mga tindahan/kompanya na nakikinabang sa gastos na yan... will see a decline in sales

at dahil mas mahina ang kita ng mga tindahan/kompanya mag babawas din sila ng tao o magsara

so mas madami mawalan ng trabaho

chain reaction... interconnected lahat

kaya paulit ulit ko sinasabi sa thread na ito kailangan gumastos ang gobyerno para suportahan ang economy

bigyan ng gobyerno ng pera mga nawalan ng trabaho para may pang gastos (like DOLE 5000, SAP)

bigyan ng gobyerno ng pera mga kompanya para may pang sweldo para di mag bawas ng tao (like SSS wage subsidy)

basta kailangan ng gov't stimulus

But my question naman now is willing ba govt to do this? I mean priority ba nila yan? Hay!


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[carwhacko]

Salamat sa mga inputs niyo. Dami ko talaga natututunan dito sa Tsikot [emoji41]


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[shadow]

But my question naman now is willing ba govt to do this? I mean priority ba nila yan? Hay!


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Oo. Willing or not. They have to.wala.sila choice. Meron na sila priority bill CREATE yata ang name.


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[StockEngine]

But my question naman now is willing ba govt to do this? I mean priority ba nila yan? Hay!


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popularized term: "ayuda"

[uls]

But my question naman now is willing ba govt to do this? I mean priority ba nila yan? Hay!


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meron stimulus bill

House approves P1.3-trillion economic stimulus package vs pandemic

kailangan bilisan nila

ang tanong dun kailan mararamdaman ng economy ung pera?

[boybi]

meron stimulus bill

House approves P1.3-trillion economic stimulus package vs pandemic

kailangan bilisan nila

ang tanong dun kailan mararamdaman ng economy ung pera?

How will SMEs benefit from that bill?

[uls]

How will SMEs benefit from that bill?

i don't know the details

here are some:

House panel OKs P1.3 trillion economic stimulus package | Inquirer News

testing

Under the proposed Philippine Economic Stimulus Act (PESA), a P10 billion budget is allocated for massive testing which seeks to “alleviate ‘fear factor’” among the public since “without testing, workers will not go to work, consumers won’t go out and businesses won’t open.”

wage subsidy

The bill likewise provides P110 billion budget in wage subsidies under the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) and P30 billion for “cash for work” under the DOLE-Tulong Panghanapbuhay para sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers (TUPAD).

for students

A P15 billion budget is also allocated to assist students affected by the pandemic.

loans to businesses

In terms of businesses’ financial capability, P50 billion is provided for loans for micro, small, and medium enterprises and P50 billion for zero-interest loans under the Land Bank of the Philippines (LBP) and Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP).

cash assistance to businesses

Funds are also provided to assist “critically impacted sectors” such as MSMEs (P10 billion), tourism (P58 billion), industry and service sectors (P44 billion), transportation (P70 billion) and agriculture (P56 billion).

^^^

carwhacko baka may makuha ka dito (tourism)

[jut703]

Looks good sa press release pero pano nga ba execution? I'm not questioning the need for economic subsidy (there's no other way). Pero nagagamit ba and napapakinabangan?

Honest question kasi di naman ako MSME so I wouldn't have firsthand experience. Ang alam ko lang yung pinangakong SAP samin (all residents of Pasig daw), hanggang ngayon wala pa. Kakarating lang ng survey form last week na pinapafill up tapos isusubmit.

Pero baka hindi naman kasi kami priority since I'm sure mas priority yung ibang barangay sa Pasig and likely mas mabilis disbursement nila ng ayuda doon.

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[uls]

yep press releases always sound good kaya i'm skeptical of press releases

but there's no other way... only the gov't has money now

they're the only player left in town

the biggest companies (SM, Ayala etc) cut their capex

i dunno who is expanding now

maybe logistics companies

--

the gov't needs to hurry up and release the money

the analogy i use is the economy is a person who lost a lot of blood

the gov't needs to provide blood quickly para di mamatay

[jut703]

yep press releases always sound good kaya i'm skeptical of press releases

but there's no other way... only the gov't has money now

they're the only player left in town

the biggest companies (SM, Ayala etc) cut their capex

i dunno who is expanding now

maybe logistics companies

--

the gov't needs to hurry up and release the money

the analogy i use is the economy is a person who lost a lot of blood

the gov't needs to provide blood quickly para di mamatay

Nagawa to ng China in 2008. In fact they did a better job of saving failing industries than the US did kaya mas mabilis silang nakarecover post-recession than the US (among other things).

Kasi kahit corrupt sa China, maayos gobyerno nila magexecute. Dito corrupt na nga, kalat pa.

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[Monseratto]

[carwhacko]

Nag apply ako ng ayuda sa DOLE for my employees kaso wala na raw budget kahit maaga ako nagsubmit naman March pa. Tapos apply rin ako subsidy ng BIR at SSS for SMEs kaso same response hindi raw unlimited funds. Pinalipas ko na lang.

Sa loans naman as much as possible ayoko muna magloan kasi wala ako ipambabayad rin naman kahit zero interest pa saka high risk ang industry ko, papautangin kaya ako ng banks or govt financial institutions? Sa private banks baka since maayos credit ko pero wala naman zero interest don. Haha okay sana yung sa Landbank at DBP since zero interest.


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[uls]

dito ka magtataka

ang lakas ng PHP kahit naka 125 bps rate cut na ang BSP this year

know why?

coz of the lockdown

the gov't stopped the economy dead in its tracks in March

without economic activity imports fell in April



with a smaller trade deficit, nag surplus ang current account natin



kaya ang lakas ng PHP

(investors use the current account of an EM country as a gauge: surplus good, deficit bad)

--

dahil sa paghina ng imports nakatipid tayo ng dollars

combine that with dollars we got from foreign loans our forex reserves are at an all time high



pero going forward we're facing headwinds

sigurado mas konte ang OFW remittances