Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[Jun aka Pekto]

We're all on the same page except my idea of near term is 1-3 days out instead of 24 hours.

[Jun aka Pekto]

It looks like that wave is developing for the short term. Whether it matures into a tropical depression remains questionable though. Looking at some models, it may pass over Luzon on Tuesday-Wednesday.

I've seen tropical waves in the Atlantic. But, I've never seen one as well organized at low level as this one. Well worth studying.

I haven't done tropical stuff in a while. Paying attention here keeps me from getting too rusty.

Anyway, the GFS model seems to be consistent with what's going on. It shows the temporary deepening (strengthening) then filling (weakening) of that LLCC.

Seems like a plan. Of course, just when we think we got it figured out.......WHAM! Something we didn't notice ruins our day.......

[Hanren]

Yes it looks like it might develop for the short term and fizzle out in the long term. It does not yet have impressive rain bands as of this time. Well, it looks like it also lost most of its rain clouds if we compare it to previous he satellite images from NOAA. Cold air from the north and moderate wind shear have greatly contributed to its degradation.

Still worth watching is another potential disturbance just south of Guam. As of this time, there's no flaring (or spiralling or spinning) of convection (or rain clouds) yet but if the conditions are ripe (i.e. low vertical wind shear, high sea surface temperature - about 28 degrees C, etc), this area of convection might continue to persist and possibly become another tropical low. It's too early to tell as of the moment.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Yes it looks like it might develop for the short term and fizzle out in the long term. It does not yet have impressive rain bands as of this time. Well, it looks like it also lost most of its rain clouds if we compare it to previous he satellite images from NOAA. Cold air from the north and moderate wind shear have greatly contributed to its degradation.

Still worth watching is another potential disturbance just south of Guam. As of this time, there's no flaring (or spiralling or spinning) of convection (or rain clouds) yet but if the conditions are ripe (i.e. low vertical wind shear, high sea surface temperature - about 28 degrees C, etc), this area of convection might continue to persist and possibly become another tropical low. It's too early to tell as of the moment.

I also looked at that tropical wave south of Guam. The low level wind field does indicate a closed circulation at low levels. But, it remains a wave at mid levels indicating a lack of intensification just like the one approaching Luzon. Models keep it south, affecting mainly the southern half of the Philippines as the one to the north exits westward.

My biggest worry would be heavy rains for the eastern slopes of northern Luzon as that first one passes over.

Anyway, just looking at that satellite image. The shearing aloft looks impressive to me. I wish I had detailed upper air reports. I could draw some streamlines at different levels and get a clearer picture of what's going on.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Here's a link to the US National Hurricane Center. They're geared for the US east and Gulf coasts. But, many tips can apply to the Philippines as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml

Some interesting stuff......

Yeah, I know. I shouldn't be laughing. I'd hate to be that tree.

[Hanren]

Tropical Depression Tino has lost a lot of its convection. Pagasa tracks it west south west into aurora, baguio, and exiting near dagupan city. In the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, it is forecast to track south south west going in the same track that Santi took (Southern Luzon).

Regardless of the difference in forecast track, Tino will eventually cease to become a significant cyclone within 36 hours. Magdidissipate na si Tino..It just cannot sustain itself. This is good news. Pero iba pa rin ang mag ingat.

[Monseratto]

Very odd track... Good thing it is loosing steam.

[alnr]

hi, i just want to know if there will be any storm coming this weekend. my family and i are planning to go to subic kasi and we just want to make sure na ok ang weather.

thanks guys!

[Chikselog]

Buhayin na natin ang thread.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/192796/p...icially-starts

PAGASA: Rainy season officially starts

Now it's official: The rainy season of 2010 has started in the Philippines.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Sunday said this was due to several factors that brought rain in past days.

"The development of a series of low pressure systems, also known as heat lows, in the southern part of mainland Asia that linked with the low pressure area near Northern Luzon has generated and sustained the southwesterly winds in the country which brought rains for several days especially in the western section of the country," PAGASA said in a statement posted on its website.

"This development signals the onset of the rainy season on the first week of June in areas under Type 1 climate, which covers the western parts of Luzon and Visayas," it added.

the rainy season, which is associated with the southwest monsoon, is expected to last until end of September.

However, PAGASA said monsoon breaks or periods of no rain for a few weeks are expected during the season.

Residents in low-lying areas are advised to watch out for above-normal rainfall due to the La Niña phenomenon in the third quarter.

"With the increasing probability of the occurence of La Niña beginning on the 3rd quarter of this year that can result to above normal rainfall, residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take precausionary measures againts possible flash floods
and landslides during periods of heavy rains," PAGASA said.

Pagasa said the public can call its weather division for more information at telephone numbers 927-1541, 926-4258, 927-1335 and 928-2031. - KBK, GMANews.TV

[CVT]

Yup,- mukha ngang monsoon break ngayon dito.... Walang ulan for 2-3 days na....

10.1K:mop:

[Monseratto]

First one for this year...

Potential cyclone spotted off Bicol

State weather forecasters on Sunday afternoon started tracking a new low-pressure area (LPA) that may bring rains to Luzon and Visayas.

While the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) did not say if the LPA will intensify into a cyclone, other weather sites indicated there is a strong chance it will.

[Monseratto]

The track is now closer to Manila than yesterday.

[CVT]

Sabi ng weatherman sa PAGASA kagabi, sana raw bumagal ang takbo ng bagyo para magdala ng maraming ulan, lalo na sa lugar ng mga dams natin dahil below critical level na ang mga ito....

10.3K:sumo:

[Monseratto]

The path has moved even closer to Manila.

[Zeus]

The path has moved even closer to Manila.

Kaya pala suspended mga elementary classes ngayong hapon sa Metro Manila...

[Monseratto]

Tatamaan ang Manila.

[renzo_d10]

Wow, sapul ang MM.

Nagiba nanaman ng direction ... hmm, okay lang actually ... bukas naman ng 2AM eh so we're peacefully sleeping. I doubt it if it will cause MAJOR floods like ondoy or whatsoever kaya hindi tayo masyado maapektuhan unlike if maglandfall ito ng rush hour like 5pm or something.

[ghosthunter]

Wow, sapul ang MM.

Nagiba nanaman ng direction ... hmm, okay lang actually ... bukas naman ng 2AM eh so we're peacefully sleeping. I doubt it if it will cause MAJOR floods like ondoy or whatsoever kaya hindi tayo masyado maapektuhan unlike if maglandfall ito ng rush hour like 5pm or something.

I doubt if the people who got badly flooded last year would be sleeping soundly tonight.

[speed unlimited]

Hanggang kailan kaya itong bagyo mukhang maulan na naman.

[Zhandros]

doubtful flooding.

coz the ondoy flooding was caused by excessive rain for a long period + dam water release.

the storm now is passing far too quickly and we have critical dam water levels.

the way i see floods forming is from rain water not flowing through clogged drains... although i could be wrong.