Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[Jun aka Pekto]

Yes it looks like it might develop for the short term and fizzle out in the long term. It does not yet have impressive rain bands as of this time. Well, it looks like it also lost most of its rain clouds if we compare it to previous he satellite images from NOAA. Cold air from the north and moderate wind shear have greatly contributed to its degradation.

Still worth watching is another potential disturbance just south of Guam. As of this time, there's no flaring (or spiralling or spinning) of convection (or rain clouds) yet but if the conditions are ripe (i.e. low vertical wind shear, high sea surface temperature - about 28 degrees C, etc), this area of convection might continue to persist and possibly become another tropical low. It's too early to tell as of the moment.

I also looked at that tropical wave south of Guam. The low level wind field does indicate a closed circulation at low levels. But, it remains a wave at mid levels indicating a lack of intensification just like the one approaching Luzon. Models keep it south, affecting mainly the southern half of the Philippines as the one to the north exits westward.

My biggest worry would be heavy rains for the eastern slopes of northern Luzon as that first one passes over.

Anyway, just looking at that satellite image. The shearing aloft looks impressive to me. I wish I had detailed upper air reports. I could draw some streamlines at different levels and get a clearer picture of what's going on.