Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[testament11]

we did experience signal 4. kung hindi ako nagkakamali, umabot tayo ng signal 4 nung time ni rosing

[roberto_minosa]

Yes, Rosing was a Signal No. 4. I was about 5 years old back then. I'll never forget that experience.

[_Cathy_]

we did experience signal 4. kung hindi ako nagkakamali, umabot tayo ng signal 4 nung time ni rosing

Hanggang signal 3 pa lang ata classification nung 90s. I remember very well in school we were only taught until Signal 3 e.

[testament11]

oo cathy, hanggang 3 lang. pero nung dumating si rosing at direct hit ang manila, nasa 4 tayo. yun ang pinakagrabeng bagyong naexperience ko. 3 araw walang kuryente...

[roberto_minosa]

Nope, we already had Signal No. 4 back then. I could remember 'coz it meant my dad wouldn't be going to work if the storm was a Signal No. 4. But maybe that's the case when I was in pre-school.

[chua_riwap]

oo cathy, hanggang 3 lang. pero nung dumating si rosing at direct hit ang manila, nasa 4 tayo. yun ang pinakagrabeng bagyong naexperience ko. 3 araw walang kuryente...

Mas matagal walang kuryente nung bagyong Milenyo........

[Monseratto]

Typhoon Ramil trajectory has changed a little but is still aimed at Northern Luzon.

[chua_riwap]

Update on Lupit.



http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/10...hoon-enters-rp

'Lupit' now a typhoon, enters RP

MANILA - Tropical storm Ramil (international codename Lupit) has intensified into a typhoon and is now in the Philippine area of responsibility, state weather forecasters said Friday.

As of 10 p.m, the storm was sighted 880 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes and is moving in the general direction of Northern and Central Luzon, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

Packing 120 kph winds near the center and gusts of up to 150 kph, the weather disturbance is not expected to affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.

PAGASA said Luzon will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms while the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Update on Lupit.



http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/10...hoon-enters-rp

The typhoon might not directly affect the Philippines yet. But the land/sea breeze pattern may be disrupted. Those on the west-facing coasts may see increased rainshowers/thunderstorms while those on the east-facing coasts may see a temporary decrease until the typhoon or at least a feeder band makes it over the country.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Different computer models differ somewhat on when the rain will hit. The timing will vary among models. But, rough guess over the Northern Luzon area..... starting Wednesday morning over the same areas that got hit last time. That's not taking into account any rain from the land/sea breeze circulation or monsoonal flow.

The only thing they agree on is the typhoon will continue tracking westward, again due to High Pressure up north.

For those in Manila, I'd watch out for greatly increased rainfall once Lupit moves into the South China Sea and Manila comes under that southwesterly flow. Thursday morning, perhaps?

Again that far out.... I wouldn't bet money on these forecast models.

Add: The main thing is everyone on the Philippines need to be aware of what's coming and plan. It wouldn't hurt to be prepared and nothing happens.

[redorange]

Since passing here when it was still weather disturbance 22w the typhoon has intensified. I can't imagine the wind and rain it will bring because the rain as a weather disturbance was coming down almost horizontally and causing whiteout conditions on the roads.

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/wa...wp2209prog.txt

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF PALAU AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY LUPIT HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN A 160859Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS IN RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH
A BANDING EYE. LUPIT'S INTENSIFICATION TO TYPHOON STRENGTH HAS BEEN
ENABLED BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES THAT LUPIT IS
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE VERY NARROW (ONLY ABOUT TEN DEGREES, NORTH TO
SOUTH) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS ACCESS TO THE MID-LATITUDES DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE
CURRENT POSITION WAS PLACED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, BETWEEN THE PGTW
AND RJTD FIXES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND
TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY WEST
OF KOREA, TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSES A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD, LUPIT WILL REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG/CM^2.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 22W SHOULD RESUME TRACKING WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 KNOTS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAINS ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. AS LUPIT MAKES ITS
WAY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 LUPIT SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER NORTHERN LUZON. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS
ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS WELL AS A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER, THE AIDS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE TIMING OF INTERACTION AND THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE TRACK OF 22W. OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY DEEPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD CAUSE TY 22W TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR A PERIOD OF ABOUT 12 HOURS BEFORE RESUMING A WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, THOSE PARTICULAR MODELS HAVE SHOWN A POLEWARD BIAS
THIS SEASON AND, IN CONSIDERATION OF THE CURRENT ZONAL MID-LATITUDE
PATTERN, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY
ECMWF AND UKMO WHICH SLOW THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED CONSIDERABLY BUT
DO NOT DEPICT AS AGRESSIVE A TURN NORTHWARD.//
NNNN

[Zeus]

UPDATE) 'Ramil' still heading towards Pepeng-hit provinces
abs-cbnNEWS.com | 10/17/2009 7:55 AM

MANILA - Typhoon Ramil (international codename Lupit) slowed down Saturday as it continued to move towards the general direction of Northern and Central Luzon, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
As of 2 a.m., the storm was sighted 850 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, packing maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 150 kph.
It was moving west northwest towards Northern and Central Luzon, both devastated by twin storms Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma).
The typhoon has significantly decreased speed overnight from 30 kilometers per hour to 20 kph.
Nathaniel Cruz, PAGASA's weather bureau chief, said Ramil slowing down is a "bad thing" because it would give the typhoon more time to gather strength while crossing Philippine waters.
"While it is slowing down, it will further intensify in the next several hours and several days before hitting land, if it hits land," Cruz said.
He said the typhoon's strength will be felt in northern provinces by late Monday or Tuesday. He said provinces that have been hit by Pepeng in the north should prepare for "lots of rains and strong winds" from Ramil.
He added that based on the typhoons speed and current course, its winds and rains will be hardly felt in Bicol provinces and provinces along the eastern seaboard of Luzon, including Quezon, Aurora and Cagayan.
Cruz also said that Cordillera Administrative Region should expect more landslides during the typhoon's onslaught. He added that since water level in dams were already high, provinces flooded by the two previous storms should also prepare for possible flashfloods.
Storm Pepeng has killed more than 400 people in the northern provinces of Luzon, with majority of deaths caused by landslides in the Cordilleras.
The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said Pepeng and Ondoy's combined death toll has reached 773. Ondoy's death toll was 354, with majority of deaths caused by flashfloods in Rizal, Marikina and Quezon City.
Supertyphoon Ramil
Cruz had said that Ramil can reach the supertyphoon intensity before making landfall.
"It can reach almost the supertyphoon intensity before hitting land, if and when there will be no change in its course, direction and speed," Cruz said in an interview over ANC television.
Press Secretary Cerge Remonde said the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) has pre-positioned equipment needed for rescue operations as well as relief goods to areas that the storm was expected to hit.
Remonde said he expects dam operators to have learned the lessons left by Ondoy and Pepeng by releasing water even before the new storm hits. Local officials in Pangasinan earlier accused dam operators in Northern Luzon of aggravating floods during the height of Pepeng's onslaught.
As of 6 a.m. Saturday, seven out of 10 major dams in Luzon were still releasing water in anticipation of the new storm. These are the Angat and Ipo Dams in Bulacan, Ambuklao and Binga Dams in Benguet, San Roque Dam in Pangasinan, Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija and Magat Dam in Isabela.
The La Mesa Dam in Quezon City and Caliraya Dam in Laguna remain closed.
PAGASA's dam monitoring report said 2 gates of Angat were releasing 400 cubic meters of water per second; Ipo dam releasing water at 412 cms; Ambuklao 133 cms with 3 gates open; Binga 224 cms with 2 gates open, San Roque 623 with 2 gates open; Pantabangan 220 cms with 1 gate open and Magat 628 cms with 2 gates open.
Preparing for Ramil
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, concurrent head of the NDCC, on Saturday flew to Sorsogon province in Bicol to meet officials of local disaster coordinating units.
Teodoro said Malacañang has cancelled a scheduled "relief caravan" for Monday. He said relief trucks and other equipment to be used in the caravan will be diverted to the prepositioning of relief goods to areas that may be hit by the typhoon.
Benguet Governor Nestor Fongwan, meanwhile, said teams have been alerted for emergency evacuations in case the typhoon affects the province.
Pangasinan Governor Amado Espino, meanwhile, said they are now closely monitoring the release of water from the San Roque dam.
Espino said several areas in the municipalities of Bautista, Alcala, Bayambang, Camiling, Moncada were still submerged in house-deep floods.
The governor said residents in the flooded areas were currently housed in temporary evacuation centers, and they have prepared more secured shelters in case Ramil hits the province.
as of 10/17/2009 11:09 AM

Mukhang lalakas at magiging super typhoon nga

[Monseratto]

[prince777]

any info on the actual weather as of this time?

[Jun aka Pekto]

any info on the actual weather as of this time?

Well, it's kind of hard to get weather observations in the middle of the ocean. Ships might be used. But, I doubt any ship would be in the path of a typhoon. There are also buoys that transmit data. But, the nearest one isn't transmitting any. Either it was turned off or rendered non-functional by the typhoon.

[Jun aka Pekto]

List of reporting stations in the Philippines. Interesting....Only two stations are reporting current conditions in the entire Philippines? It's kind of weird because there's still forecasts coming out.

RPLB NIL

RPLB 170500Z 1706/1806 19006KT 9999 FEW020 SCT300 TX30/1706Z
TN25/1721Z
TEMPO 1706/1712 21008KT 9000 -SHRA SCT018 BKN080
-----
RPLC 171200Z VRB01KT 9999 FEW020CB SCT030 BKN270 25/22 Q1009 A2980 NOSIG RMK DSTNT OCNL LTNG N NE

RPLC 170500Z 1706/1806 23006KT 9999 SCT036 BKN300 TX31/1706Z
TN21/1721Z
TEMPO 1706/1712 22008G18KT 5000 -TSSHRA FEW015CB SCT025
OVC300
-----
RPLI NIL

RPLI 170500Z 1706/1806 09010KT 9999 SCT019 BKN100
TEMPO 1706/1712 14010G18KT 8000 TSSHRA SCT019CB BKN090
-----
RPLL 171200Z 22003KT 9000 FEW023 SCT100 26/25 Q1009 NOSIG RMK A2980

RPLL 170500Z 1706/1806 22008KT 9999 SCT023 BKN300 TX32/1706Z
TN26/1721Z
TEMPO 1706/1712 24010KT 8000 SHRA/-RA SCT022 OVC090
-----
RPMD NIL
RPMD 170500Z 1706/1806 24008KT 9999 FEW016 BKN290
TEMPO 1706/1712 27010KT 8000 SHRA SCT015CB SCT090 BKN290
-----
RPML NIL
RPML 170500Z 1706/1806 22008KT 9999 SCT018 BKN080
TEMPO 1706/1712 24010KT 9000 VCSH/-RA SCT017CB OVC070
-----
RPMR 170500Z 1706/1806 24007KT 9999 FEW018 BKN250
TEMPO 1706/1712 27010KT 9999 VCSH SCT018 BKN240
-----
RPMT NIL
-----
RPMZ NIL

RPMZ 170500Z 1706/1806 22008KT 9999 FEW020 SCT120 BKN350
TEMPO 1706/1712 24010KT 9999 VCSH FEW018CB SCT110 BKN330
----
RPUW NIL
-----
RPVD 170500Z 1706/1806 22010KT 9999 VCSH SCT015 BKN079
TEMPO 1706/1712 24013KT 8000 SHRA/-RA SCT05CB OVC070
-----
RPVM 171200Z 27004KT 9999 FEW020 OVC250 29/26 Q1009 A2981

RPVM 170500Z 1706/1806 24008KT 8000 -RA SCT020 OVC090
TEMPO 1706/1712 27010KT 6000 RA/-RA SCT018 OVC080
-----
RPVP 170500Z 1706/1806 22012KT 9999 FEW020 BKN250
TEMPO 1706/1712 24014KT 9000 TSSHRA SCT017CB SCT080 BKN240

[Monseratto]

Ramil has reached Super Typhoon status (250 kph). It's taking it's time and growing in intensity.

[Hanren]

Latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2209.gif




Latest forecast from Japan Met Agency
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0920.html




Halos din nagkakalayo ang mga forecasts ng mga different agencies if you include the images posted by sir Monseratto...

[Monseratto]

The JTWC model is now pointing to a landfall in the area of Aparri, Cagayan.

[XTO]

Ibang klase approach ng mga bagyo ngayon Noon isang direction lang ngayon merong bumabalik eto meron pang chicane kaya very tricky.