Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[renzo_d10]

^^ Baka yung isa nasa likod pa ni Melor. Grabe naman, every week na 'tong bagyo.

Haaayy.... iwish na lang natin na lumihis si melor. :sigh:

[testament11]

based sa picture dun sa jtwc, si melor eh palihis ang takbo. aiming for japan siya. wag lang talaga mahahatak ni pepeng tom. o kaya eh, si pepeng tom ang hatakin ni melor!

[_Cathy_]

Are we safe now? No more rains for Metro Manila today?

[renzo_d10]

^^ Cathy, according to pagasa, again, mamayang gabi na daw landfall

[ssaloon]

Still expect rains in Manila, pero di na siguro heavy downpours.

[Zeus]

Wala na typhoon signal ang Metro Manila sana konti na lang ang ulan...

[ghosthunter]

But the typhoon has passed it's closest proximity to Manila. Land fall would be at the northern tip of Luzon. So unless it changes it's direction, Manila is safe.

[_Cathy_]

Does anyone know a website where I could view the altitude/terrain of our area?

Google Maps has latitude and longitude but it doesn't give the altitude/terrain profile. I am curious because some areas in our village were flooded and some weren't. I just want to know the highest point in our village. I am trying http://topocoding.com/ but it doesn't work for our area.

[renzo_d10]

Yeah. Good thing for us, but not for the cagayan people

Atleast it wont affect manila that much, since some of the barangays are still flooded with waist to chest deep water.

[redorange]

Melor is expected to track west northwest towards Japan and be pulled by the weather pattern north. Since typhoons in this area rarely track south it shouldn't hit Manila(it's latitude coordinate are already north of Manila) even if it tracks towards Luzon it would go near Batanes but more likely Taiwan.


http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2009.gif

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/wa.../wp2009fix.txt

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/wa...wp20090221.gif

[uls]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aRAkxc6eJy2o

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Typhoon Parma shifted course and weakened last night, reducing its effect on Manila and the southern part of the Philippine island of Luzon. It’s forecast to make landfall in northern Luzon later today before heading toward Taiwan.

[testament11]

safe na tayo for now. malabo na si melor sa atin mapunta.

[renzo_d10]

Kawawa naman yung nasa tugegarao. Good thing bumilis si peping at 3pm na ang landfall at hindi gabi, kasi mas delikado. Pagdasal nalang natin sila. :pope:

[niwde11]

malakas na hangin at ulan dito valenzuela. what more kaya sa isabela

[renzo_d10]

Dito walang hangin, moderate yung ulan pero madilim na.

[cutedoc]

because of ondoy, pagasa become wary of pepeng which is good, but they overshoot and overkilled it in a way, its right to be prepared but panic buying isnt, improper news reporting isnt, showing footages of previous floods wont help as well, it just cause manilenos to cancel and to postpone their previous engagements...

though it is a good thing that we keep safe, however wont we think that pagasa is fooling us all the while with their "false forecast" its like the boy who cried wolf story...pagasa announces that the hit will be last night, then again not much rain nor wind was felt, another news came in and they announces that the storm will hit the land by this afternoon, though typhoon was felt in bicol area going to the north, manila was somehow normal...

i hope pagasa could give a more accurate data... they didnt give this much data before ondoy...

i judge the weather according to datas i get from cnn and accuweather.com i somehow rely on their forecast more than what pagasa do...

[Jun aka Pekto]

because of ondoy, pagasa become wary of pepeng which is good, but they overshoot and overkilled it in a way, its right to be prepared but panic buying isnt, improper news reporting isnt, showing footages of previous floods wont help as well, it just cause manilenos to cancel and to postpone their previous engagements...

though it is a good thing that we keep safe, however wont we think that pagasa is fooling us all the while with their "false forecast" its like the boy who cried wolf story...pagasa announces that the hit will be last night, then again not much rain nor wind was felt, another news came in and they announces that the storm will hit the land by this afternoon, though typhoon was felt in bicol area going to the north, manila was somehow normal...

i hope pagasa could give a more accurate data... they didnt give this much data before ondoy...

i judge the weather according to datas i get from cnn and accuweather.com i somehow rely on their forecast more than what pagasa do...

I'd cut em some slack. Even the forecasters in the US (and Japan) had been off too in the past. The track a tropical system will take is one of the hardest things to forecast because there are so many variables. The best thing really is for you to be proactive. Be prepared at all times.

Add:
To really get an idea of how a typhoon may track and other factors that may affect that region, you have to look at what's going on at other places such as Siberia, China, Japan, the rest of Southeast Asia, the Pacific, etc. Adding the local stuff, that's an awful lot of work even for a full crew.

[niky]

Aside from that... I don't see that they went completely overboard... they gave Manila a conditional Signal Number One... then retractied it when they were more sure of the Typhoon's path.

Can't blame them for being cautious.

[Jun aka Pekto]

It's definitely not easy forecasting a typhoon's track. See JTWC's latest.....



Ouch. What a convoluted track.

All because of what's going on farther north... I don't envy those trying to forecast this typhoon's track. If I had to do this every day, I'd go bald because of the stress.

[Jun aka Pekto]

It's definitely not easy forecasting a typhoon's track. See JTWC's latest.....



Ouch. What a convoluted track.

All because of what's going on farther north... I don't envy those trying to forecast this typhoon's track. If I had to do this every day, I'd go bald because of the stress.

Yesterday's JTWC forecast had it swinging north then east. Look at the current forecast track. Way different today.

The PAGASA guys aren't the only ones having a hard time with typhoons.