World economy talk

**uls** · January 11th, 2019 04:53 PM

Originally Posted by Monseratto

Germany probably just went into a recession - Business Insider

BECAUSE Germany is export-oriented

Their customers aren't doing well right now

Guess who is Germany's 3rd biggest customer -- China

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everyone's interconnected

**Dr. Strange** · January 11th, 2019 05:16 PM

Originally Posted by uls

BECAUSE Germany is export-oriented

Their customers aren't doing well right now

Guess who is Germany's 3rd biggest customer -- China

-

everyone's interconnected

Guess who is china's 18th biggest customer? .....who cares

**uls** · January 11th, 2019 05:26 PM

yeah who cares

in relation to Germany's economy, i cited China coz everyone (who knows what's going on) knows China's economy is slowing down and Germany is highly dependent on Chinese demand

**uls** · January 11th, 2019 10:35 PM

Originally Posted by uls

Going into 2019 the Fed faces a test to its independence

The most positive scenario now imo is 2 rate hikes this year

There could be no rate hike at all if econ data deteriorates

Hawkish fed shifts to dovish fed

I see dollar weakness ahead

dollar weakness

Even against RMB

some time ago there was concern usdcnh would break above the psychologically important 7 level

**Walter** · January 12th, 2019 07:08 AM

Mackenzie entered the trade too early ...

**Monseratto** · January 12th, 2019 10:11 AM

Slashed profit expectations may set stage for gains | Reuters

**Monseratto** · January 14th, 2019 07:39 PM

China's exports shrink most in two years, raising risks to global economy | Reuters

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**Monseratto** · January 14th, 2019 07:40 PM

China trade shock rattles European stocks, commodities | Reuters

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**Monseratto** · January 15th, 2019 10:17 AM

Next financial crisis: Market flashing scary new parallel to last one - Business Insider

**uls** · January 15th, 2019 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by Monseratto

Next financial crisis: Market flashing scary new parallel to last one - Business Insider

^^^

chart says only 2.4 dollars chasing every dollar of 3-month US treasury

market is suffering from indigestion -- too much Treasury supply (meaning the US gov't is borrowing A LOT)

**uls** · January 17th, 2019 10:33 AM

GLOBAL slowdown

China's exports shrink most in 2 years, raising risks to global economy | ABS-CBN News

BEIJING -- (UPDATE) China's exports unexpectedly fell the most in two years in December, while imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world's second-largest economy in 2019 and deteriorating global demand.

Singapore non-oil domestic exports down 8.5% in December, Government & Economy - THE BUSINESS TIMES

SINGAPORE'S exports ended 2018 on a weak note with non-oil domestic exports (NODX) falling for the second straight month in December, according to Enterprise Singapore figures on Thursday.

NODX was down 8.5 per cent year on year in December from a high base a year ago, after a 2.8 per cent decline in November. The contraction came on the back of declines in both electronics and non-electronics exports.

here's a good indicator - Hong Kong air freight

since HK is the busiest air freight hub in the world...

Trade turbulence slows Asia air cargo for first time in 2.5 years -
Nikkei Asian Review

HONG KONG -- Airfreight traffic, often a leading indicator of trade trends, turned down in the Asia-Pacific region in November, the first fall in more than two-and-a-half years.

The drop is notable as the region is the busiest in the world for airfreight and home to many of the top cargo-handling airlines and airports. The decline comes amid a lull in U.S.-China trade tensions but suggests that worries about the outlook for more conflict or economic deceleration are already dampening activity.

**uls** · January 31st, 2019 11:07 AM

market no longer expects a rate hike in 1Q

if there's one rate hike this year may not even happen in 1H

maybe September... or no rate hike at all

**Monseratto** · January 31st, 2019 07:37 PM

Italy falls into recession after economy shrinks by .2% | The Independent

**uls** · February 1st, 2019 12:09 PM

**uls** · February 1st, 2019 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by Monseratto

Italy falls into recession after economy shrinks by .2% | The Independent

now consider this...

The eurozone is heading into recession with the ECB still buying bonds and maintaining zero/negative rates

The ECB out of ammo to fight the next recession