World economy talk

[uls]

coz if it crosses that psychological level, $$$ outflow pressure would be massive

[Monseratto]

"U.S. banks quietly pull back from riskiest loans amid recession fears" -
U.S. banks quietly pull back from riskiest loans amid recession fears | Reuters

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

[uls]

Many companies will have difficulty servicing debt as interest rates rise

Many corporate bonds with investment grade rating could be downgraded to high yield (junk)

[uls]

We're witnessing the repricing of assets

GLOBALLY

[Monseratto]

500 pts down again...
Wall St. tumbles, S&P closes at lowest level in 14 months | Reuters

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

[Monseratto]

CNBC: The stock market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression - News & Guts Media

[Monseratto]

[dreamur]

Hold!!! [emoji24][emoji24][emoji24]

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[uls]

+25 bps

Fed funds rate now 2.5%

but for me this is what matters more

Fed chief Powell says he doesn't see the Fed changing its strategy for shrinking the balance sheet

The Fed currently is allowing $50 billion a month to run off the balance sheet, which is largely a portfolio of bonds the central bank purchased to stimulate the economy during and after the financial crisis.

Powell said the process is going well.

"I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose," he said during a news conference. "I don't see us changing that."

After creating 4.5 trillion dollars during years of QE the Fed is now destroying 50 billion dollars per month

in other words dollar liquidity is being sucked out of the system

if QE inflated asset prices what does reverse QE (QT) do?

make a guess

[uls]

Fed rate hike --> flatter yield curve

US 2Y yield 2.662
US 10Y yield 2.775

yield spread 11 bps

(2Y yield rose coz it's more sensitive to Fed interest rate, 10Y yield fell coz investors don't see future inflation/growth)

[uls]

but i think rate hike cycle ending soon

maybe 2 more hikes next year to bring FF rate to 3.0%

that's my positive scenario

my negative scenario is US economic data deteriorates and the Fed doesn't raise rates anymore

my 2X negative scenario is US data is so bad the Fed is forced to cut

[uls]

10 bps

[Monseratto]

Who said again the US is winning???

U.S. stocks suffer worst week in a decade

[uls]

Who said again the US is winning???

and because a falling stock market doesn't make Trump look good

PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLS ON CONGRESS TO DECLARE WAR ON SHORT SELLERS. CALLS SHORT SELLERS 'SAD LOWLIFES WHO ARE FAT AND UGLY'.

hahaha

[Monseratto]

Happy New Year!

Investing: Global bear market just starting, worst to come in 2019

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

[Monseratto]

Nikkei lost 5%

Market Update: Nikkei Crashes 1 Points, Tumbles into Bear Market - FX Leaders News

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

[uls]

Super-vain Trump wants to boast about a record high stock market during his term

He's blaming Powell for the selloff and now wants to replace Powell

This is dangerous coz trump is politicizing the central bank

A central bank decides monetary policy based on data not what a president wants

This sort of thing happens in 3rd world countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela

If trump gets to decide what the fed should do the world will lose confidence in the dollar

It's now clear to me the biggest threat to the dollar's reserve currency status isn't foreign

It's domestic --- it's trump

[Monseratto]

And the air is out of the bag

Dow opens 300 pts down...

Dramatic stock market rally runs out of steam | Reuters
European shares slip back to 2016 levels as Wall St support evaporates | Reuters

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

[tsupermario]

China To Take Over Kenya's Largest Port Over Unpaid Chinese Loan | Zero Hedge

[falken]

China To Take Over Kenya's Largest Port Over Unpaid Chinese Loan | Zero Hedge

Coming soon to the Philippines.