World economy talk

[Monseratto]

Trump-China Trade War: Beijing cuts growth target after tariff impact - Business Insider

[uls]

the rally in US equities has stalled




and because Trump is vain (a rallying stock market makes him look good)

[uls]

A dovish ECB sent the euro falling




and because the US dollar index is euro heavy...

[uls]

i'm updating my dollar outlook

entering 2019 i said to expect dollar weakness coz the Fed halted rate hikes

but things are deteriorating faster outside the US (Europe, China) so that means other central banks will be easing monetary policy

so their currencies will be weaker against the dollar

so expect dollar strength

everything's relative

[Luap]

Almost 53 na

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[uls]

our new central bank governor is a dovish one

he's biased towards more accommodative monetary policy

that's why PHP has been getting weaker

[kisshmet]

^Thats playing the OFW votes this 2019 election

Sent from my SM-G532G using Tapatalk

[uls]

from PH economy thread

PHP weakness is a side effect not the goal

goal is 7 to 8 percent GDP growth

you need to flood the financial system with money if you want growth

so you make banks lend more money by cutting reserve requirement (which the BSP will do this month) and encourage borrowing by cutting interest rates (which the BSP will do a few months later)

the market reacted to this signal by selling PHP

[Monseratto]

Japan government downgrades economy view as U.S.-China trade war bites | Reuters

[Monseratto]

No more rate hikes for 2019...

This might be the dollar disaster bears have been waiting for - Business News | The Star Online

[uls]

No more rate hikes for 2019...

This might be the dollar disaster bears have been waiting for - Business News | The Star Online

me at the start of 2019





me this month

[uls]

so the dollar will get weaker coz there will be no more rate hikes?

but other central banks aren't in the mood to tighten either

it's the weak dollar against other weak currencies

i'm still sticking to my March outlook

[ray_noel]

me at the start of 2019





me this month

ULS, will usd drop below 50 or worst 40ish? I hope not...



Sent from my iPhone XS Max using Tapatalk

[uls]

no imo pahina ang PHP hindi palakas

[Monseratto]

Dollar trampled as Fed sparks stampede into bonds | Reuters

The only solace for the dollar was that other central banks around the globe have also turned decidedly dovish in recent months as growth slowed pretty much everywhere.

That need for stimulus means many central banks will not want to see their currencies appreciate against the dollar, giving them reason to sound ever more accommodative.

“The more cautious tone and downgraded U.S. economic outlook will limit dollar upside,” said CBA senior currency strategist Joseph Capurso.

“However, with similarly soft economic growth outlooks elsewhere, including Europe, China, Australia and Japan, it is questionable whether the dollar will depreciate to any significant extent.”

[uls]

dollar weakness will be limited

what's the dollar gonna fall against?

against currencies of deteriorating economies?

[StockEngine]

above water is good enough

[uls]

[Monseratto]

German PMI: manufacturing data worst since the financial crisis - Business Insider

Germany's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) plunged from 47.6 in February to 44.7 in March. A survey reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.

[uls]

^^^

so if the EURO area's most powerful economy is slowing down what's the ECB gonna do?

tighten or loosen?