Philippine Economy Talk

[Monseratto]

That's populist socialism for you... giving handouts to keep the masses "happy" at the cost of the economy.

Speaking of Venezuela. Seems the government there has turned to cryptocurrency to solve inflation woes. Inside the bluster and lies of Petro, Venezuela'''s cryptocurrency scam | WIRED UK


"Inside the bluster and lies of Petro, Venezuela's cryptocurrency scam

Venezuela’s latest economic wheeze: a currency backed by a cryptocurrency backed by petroleum. To put it bluntly: it’s a scam on top of another scam"

"The International Monetary Fund recently forecast that Venezuela’s economy will shrink about 18 per cent this year, while inflation is set to surge to one million per cent. Two months ago, the annual rate of inflation stood at 40,000 per cent. People are scared; more than 400,000 Venezuelans have already crossed the border into the neighbouring Ecuador, trying to escape their home’s crumbling economy. Brazil has also seen a surge in illegal immigration."

[chronicle]

This is just sad. Sana di magtuloy tuloy ang PH.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cp...bbdcc1d69a.jpg

How Venezuela's crisis developed and drove out millions of people - BBC News


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[uls]

Again, rising food prices are know to topple governments

governments will try to prevent it at all cost

all populist leaders react the same to rising prices

subsidies and price controls -- to pacify the masses

but subsidies increase govt debt

govt increases borrowing

govt raises taxes

-

price controls lead to shortages

so who does the govt go after?

businesses

-

why do you need to follow markets?

you look for signs

for what?

to know when to get your capital out of the country before the govt imposes capital controls

get it?

capital controls?

as things deteriorate, the local currency's value will keep falling

tendency is people will convert local currency to dollars to preserve value

strong demand for dollars = dollar scarcity

as dollar reserves fall to dangerous levels the govt will limit the amount of dollars you can withdraw

[BlancNoir]

^ TL;DR

We are royally f*cked by our government.

Samahan pa natin ng mga uneducated people na nagsasabi high inlfation is better kasi mas mataas yung absolute value. LOL

I am beginning to think dapat mga educated lang pwede bumoto sa next election eh.

[Monseratto]

This is just sad. Sana di magtuloy tuloy ang PH.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cp...bbdcc1d69a.jpg

How Venezuela's crisis developed and drove out millions of people - BBC News


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From the envy of South America...

As electricity fails, desperate Venezuelans buy spoiled meat | Fox News

MARACAIBO, Venezuela – In a city once called the Saudi Arabia of Venezuela for its vast oil wealth, residents of Maracaibo now line up to buy spoiled meat as refrigerators fail amid nine months of rolling power outages that recently got worse.

Some people fall ill eating the rotten beef, but at bargain prices, it's the only way they can afford protein as the country's crisis hits bottom.

Today, the bridge's lights no longer shine and broken down oil platforms span the lake with downwind shores soaked in oil. The once-posh shopping centers have fallen into ruin and the international businesses have packed up and left.

For the last nine months Maracaibo's residents have endured rolling blackouts. Things turned dire Aug. 10 when a fire destroyed a main powerline supplying the city of 1.5 million people.

[chronicle]

Namomonitor ba kung gaano karami ang nagpapapalit ng dollar ngayon?

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[uls]

as inflation rises / local currency weakens, the central bank will:

1. sell dollars to defend the currency (but this will deplete dollar reserves)

2. raise interest rates (but this raises borrowing cost which slows down the economy)

if the central bank doesn't do anything, inflation goes higher, the local currency keeps falling

damn if you do damn if you don't

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Namomonitor ba kung gaano karami ang nagpapapalit ng dollar ngayon?

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just look at the exchange rate

look at govt data on inflation, balance of payments etc

[Ry_Tower]

If the gov't is serious in figjting inflation. Hulihin nila mga smugglers at rice hoarders. Sila naman talaga dahilan bakit ganyan na lang presyo ng bigas. Wala kita gobyerno sa diskarte nila eh. Tapos price manipulation pa nangyayari. Inutil lang talaga gov't na ito kasi dami nila mga kaibigang smugglers. Number 1 na anak niya.

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[chronicle]

I am beginning to think dapat mga educated lang pwede bumoto sa next election eh.

Tax ranking system would be great If you pay more tax, then your vote counts as 10 or more.

If you dont pay tax, then it only counts as .10.

Pretty sure, this will also solve the tax evaders issue since they want control over the policies.


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[uls]

heard that rice is smuggled from malaysia to the southern provinces kaya nasanay mga tao sa cheap rice

no farmer and legit rice trader can compete with smuggled rice coz it's so cheap

so there's no legit rice there

then bigla nawala ang smuggled rice

kaya nagka rice shortage

[BlancNoir]

heard that rice is smuggled from malaysia to the southern provinces kaya nasanay mga tao sa cheap rice

no farmer and legit rice trader can compete with smuggled rice coz it's so cheap

then bigla nawala ang smuggled rice

kaya nagka rice shortage

I can attest to this.

I hail from the south and marami ngang rice smugglers doon.

From VN and Malaysia. Head smuggler is from Cebu. Bagsakan sa Mindanao? you guessed it. Davao.

[minicarph]

Again, rising food prices are know to topple governments

governments will try to prevent it at all cost

all populist leaders react the same to rising prices

subsidies and price controls -- to pacify the masses

but subsidies increase govt debt

govt increases borrowing

govt raises taxes

-

price controls lead to shortages

so who does the govt go after?

businesses

-

why do you need to follow markets?

you look for signs

for what?

to know when to get your capital out of the country before the govt imposes capital controls

get it?

capital controls?

as things deteriorate, the local currency's value will keep falling

tendency is people will convert local currency to dollars to preserve value

strong demand for dollars = dollar scarcity

as dollar reserves fall to dangerous levels the govt will limit the amount of dollars you can withdraw

pag lalo ba tumaas rice magmumura na ang baril, budget ko lang sana isa this year pero kung babagsak presyo ng baril coz walang demand coz people will go back to basics, bile pa ako ng isang Glock 17 salpakan ko ng Micro Roni Gen 4

hindi naman ako apektado sa rice, kasi hindi na man ako kumakain ng rice gano sa meals

[A121]

Again, rising food prices are know to topple governments

governments will try to prevent it at all cost

all populist leaders react the same to rising prices

subsidies and price controls -- to pacify the masses

but subsidies increase govt debt

govt increases borrowing

govt raises taxes

-

price controls lead to shortages

so who does the govt go after?

businesses

-

why do you need to follow markets?

you look for signs

for what?

to know when to get your capital out of the country before the govt imposes capital controls

get it?

capital controls?

as things deteriorate, the local currency's value will keep falling

tendency is people will convert local currency to dollars to preserve value

strong demand for dollars = dollar scarcity

as dollar reserves fall to dangerous levels the govt will limit the amount of dollars you can withdraw

I think we are still on a reasonable level when compared to other countries that entered crises. What do you think?

[uls]

I think we are still on a reasonable level when compared to other countries that entered crises. What do you think?

well there are several EM economies in worse shape than us

[uls]

but things can go south really fast if something crazy happens like du30 not finishing his term and transition gets messy

dollar exodus happens fast

[A121]

but things can go south really fast if something crazy happens like du30 not finishing his term and transition gets messy

dollar exodus happens fast

Oo nga eh. Pag sabi ng foreign funds sell ph, sell ph talaga. Wala tayong pansalo dyan. Aasahan lang yung remittance (until now)

Though, parang wala namang economic policy (up to this point) na sadyang hindi sound. Unless haha

[uls]

Gov. Nestor Espenilla Jr.: We are very committed to revert the inflation path to target.

this i gotta see

[uls]

so will we see 6% inflation in the next data release?

i think we will

[Monseratto]

BSP, analysts expect inflation to hit 9-year high in August - CNN Philippines

Economists from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) peg inflation to fall at 5.9 percent, or between 5.5 to 6.2 percent in August. This would put inflation at its highest in nine years.

[Monseratto]

Hehehe... For health reasons daw.