Philippine Economy Talk

[chronicle]

the days of low interest rates for PH are over despite the investment grade rating

US bond yields are rising

investors will be demanding higher interest rates from PH going forward

Ouch. Not good. Kelangan tapusin kaagad ang loan.

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[Wh1stl3r]

It was a good run.

[c_cube]

Will the increase in rate make the PHP appreciate?

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[uls]

Ouch. Not good. Kelangan tapusin kaagad ang loan.

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actually i was referring to PH govt bonds

bond investors will be demanding higher interest from the govt to compensate for higher inflation

that's why bond prices in the secondary market are falling now

coz everyone expects new bonds will have higher interest than old bonds

--

PH dollar denominated bonds for foreign investors ---

foreign investors will be demanding higher interest from PH coz benchmark US yields are rising

naturally as US yields rise, so will yields of other sovereigns

and foreign bond investors will look at our capacity to pay

they'll look at our dollar inflow & outflow and they'll see we're currently spending more dollars than we're earning so we're kinda risky so they'll demand higher interest

--

re BSP interest rate hike

they are being pressured to do something coz of rising infaltion

i understand BSP needs more data before they move

a lot of people are expecting they'll move on May 10

[uls]

Will the increase in rate make the PHP appreciate?

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yes

actually PHP is doing quite well these couple of days even as the dollar strengthens

to me that looks like the market is already expecting a rate hike

[uls]

[Monseratto]

Pesos closes at nearly 52 to the dollar today... Hmmmm

USD / PHP
52.0400

Data as of06:08 EDT

Day High
52.3390
Day Low
52.0300

[uls]

Pesos closes at nearly 52 to the dollar today... Hmmmm

USD / PHP
52.0400

Data as of06:08 EDT

Day High
52.3390
Day Low
52.0300

PHP is holding up well coz market is expecting BSP rate hike

[jut703]

Here's to hoping the inflation is temporary, brought about by the adjustment of the economy to the tax reform. Since the adjustment next year will only be for fuel taxes (no more sugar and coal), hopefull inflation drops back to acceptable levels.

After all, domestic consumption and OFW/BPO remittances have not yet dropped so fundamentally we're still okay. We really just have to weather this economic storm brought about by TRAIN.

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[dreamur]

Here's to hoping the inflation is temporary, brought about by the adjustment of the economy to the tax reform. Since the adjustment next year will only be for fuel taxes (no more sugar and coal), hopefull inflation drops back to acceptable levels.

After all, domestic consumption and OFW/BPO remittances have not yet dropped so fundamentally we're still okay. We really just have to weather this economic storm brought about by TRAIN.

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There is still the threat of removing the PEZA incentive (5% GIT) and replace with 15% regular corporate income tax under TRAIN2. Simulations showed an average of 50% to 250% additional cash outflow. Most expansions are on hold or diverted to Vietnam, Malaysia or India. Dollars are being sent back to HQ, thanks to Trump's tax reforms.

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[kagalingan]

nagdrive ako madaling araw around banawe. Meron bago building tinayo. Ang inaashan ko another car parts, accessories or talyer. Pero nagulat ako eh bangko. Parang China bank

So binagalan ko pagdadrive at palingon-lingon. Banawe is the bank capital of the philippines. From erod banawe to delmonte banawe - yang direcho na yan sa tancha ko 20 to 30 bangko ata. Bilangin ko nga next time. Grabe ganyan kaiksi ang dami bangko. Banawe is a multibillion moneymaking street. And its not even a main road.

Sa umaga hindi ko napansin yung dami ng bangko. Sa madaling-araw obvious na obvious, when all the restaurants are close na.

[uls]

nagdrive ako madaling araw around banawe. Meron bago building tinayo. Ang inaashan ko another car parts, accessories or talyer. Pero nagulat ako eh bangko. Parang China bank

So binagalan ko pagdadrive at palingon-lingon. Banawe is the bank capital of the philippines. From erod banawe to delmonte banawe - yang direcho na yan sa tancha ko 20 to 30 bangko ata. Bilangin ko nga next time. Grabe ganyan kaiksi ang dami bangko. Banawe is a multibillion moneymaking street. And its not even a main road.

Sa umaga hindi ko napansin yung dami ng bangko. Sa madaling-araw obvious na obvious, when all the restaurants are close na.

ung bagong building na may blue water day spa sa taas? (tapat ng starbucks banawe corner calamba)

sa baba may bagong chinabank

syempre madami bangko sa banawe (from del monte all the way to e. rod)

andami kasi tindahan

araw araw may benta kailangan mag deposit

parang 2nd chinatown ang banawe

[jut703]

There is still the threat of removing the PEZA incentive (5% GIT) and replace with 15% regular corporate income tax under TRAIN2. Simulations showed an average of 50% to 250% additional cash outflow. Most expansions are on hold or diverted to Vietnam, Malaysia or India. Dollars are being sent back to HQ, thanks to Trump's tax reforms.

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Interesting, is this confirmed? It wasn't mentioned at all in the recent stock market and economic briefing I watched.

Gist is that we're taking a hit now because of inflation and a current account deficit, but the inflation is temporary because it's tied to the initial shock of the tax reform and the current account deficit is due to the weakening peso brought about by huge imports of capital goods. These capital goods will then be used for the infra projects which are expected to improve our country's investment standing in the medium term.

A few positive highlights that are keeping us afloat - BPO/OFW remittances are still growing, and this is what has allowed us to grow consistently over the past decade. Tax collection has actually surpassed target in Q1, meaning that there is funding for the projects planned. And domestic consumption has not dampened despite the higher prices.

Net, if the Philippines can weather this initial storm - it will come out stronger than ever. This is under the premise that we are undergoing a correction, not a full-blown bear.


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[mda]

Maraming kalokohan sa TRAIN.

[uls]

[dreamur]

Interesting, is this confirmed? It wasn't mentioned at all in the recent stock market and economic briefing I watched.

Gist is that we're taking a hit now because of inflation and a current account deficit, but the inflation is temporary because it's tied to the initial shock of the tax reform and the current account deficit is due to the weakening peso brought about by huge imports of capital goods. These capital goods will then be used for the infra projects which are expected to improve our country's investment standing in the medium term.

A few positive highlights that are keeping us afloat - BPO/OFW remittances are still growing, and this is what has allowed us to grow consistently over the past decade. Tax collection has actually surpassed target in Q1, meaning that there is funding for the projects planned. And domestic consumption has not dampened despite the higher prices.

Net, if the Philippines can weather this initial storm - it will come out stronger than ever. This is under the premise that we are undergoing a correction, not a full-blown bear.


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DOF and PEZA are sending different messages to investors and it reflects on the kind of fiscal policy (or the lack of it) by this administration. As PEZA director general Plaza posted on her FB wall - "why kill the goose the lays the golden eggs?".

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[kagalingan]

ung bagong building na may blue water day spa sa taas? (tapat ng starbucks banawe corner calamba)

sa baba may bagong chinabank

syempre madami bangko sa banawe (from del monte all the way to e. rod)

andami kasi tindahan

araw araw may benta kailangan mag deposit

parang 2nd chinatown ang banawe

Oo yan nga tapat starbucks.

Ito pa ilan legit massage parlor / spa sa banawe, dtuazon, delmonte

Ilan medical laboratory around banawe and delmonte.

Halos jan na nagkumpol-kumpol.

Sabi sa feng shui na hindi ako follower pero i find it entertaining = ang ulo daw ng dragon nasa ongpin ang buntot daw sa banawe. So ang katawan nasaan? Greenhills ba ?

[dreamur]

Curious how the market will react on Monday.

Standard & Poor's upgrades Philippines credit outlook to 'positive' - CNN Philippines

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[uls]

market already reacted yesterday

psei +103.60

[uls]

as if PH doesn't have enough inflation pressure

Teachers ask for wage hike amid TRAIN law | Inquirer News



the govt raised salaries of AFP and PNP people January this year

that's several billions of pesos more in circulation