Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

the Fed started buying bonds in Nov 2008 and ended in Oct 2014

they bought 4.5 trillion dollars worth of bonds




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Dec 2008 Fed cut interest rate to zero and held it there for 7 years

during those years the dollar was weakest

the dollar started to recover after they started raising rates and ended their bond buying

[uls]

OFW remittances higher than ever

PH remittances beat gov't target, hit record in 217

MANILA, Philippines – Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) ended last year strong, resulting in all-time high remittance numbers in 2017, said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday, February 15.

Full-year personal remittances hit $31.29 billion, 5.3% higher than the $29.7 billion recorded in 2016 and exceeding the 4% projection of the BSP.

In December 2017 alone, personal remittances reached $3 billion.

[uls]

All that free money inflated asset prices all over the world

great recession in 2008 ---> Fed bond buying started ---> stocks bottomed in 2009 ---> upward trajectory ever since

[dreamur]

You can google all you want uls but the reality remains that investors are pulling out from the PH market because of unstable fiscal policies. But of course you wont admit that.

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[uls]

When the Fed ended bond buying the ECB took over

they're still at it

4.5 trillion euros already

[uls]

My question is economically, are we better right now or pareho lang during Pnoy's? Alisin na natin yun outside factors. Ok, swerte si pnoy, malas si duts dahil sa Timing. How about yun financial teams nila?




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ok, ask kita shadow,

mas malaki ba ang kita niyo for the full year of 2017?

compared to previous years?

maganda ang 2017 diba?

[shadow]

ok, ask kita shadow,

mas malaki ba ang kita niyo for the full year of 2017?

compared to previous years?

maganda ang 2017 diba?

To be honest, not as bad as we're expecting the most is pareho lang. But that's because Yun nature ng 3 main businesses namin is not really affected by dollar movements. I don't want to get into details here but to put it simply we can take the hit.

But I don't know with others.

PM kita explain lo sayo kung bakit Hinde kami affected.



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[uls]

To be honest, not as bad as we're expecting the most is pareho lang. But that's because Yun nature ng 3 main businesses namin is not really affected by dollar movements. I don't want to get into details here but to put it simply we can take the hit.

But I don't know with others.

PM kita explain lo sayo kung bakit Hinde kami affected.



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Ok

What I actually meant was.... 2017 is the first full year of the du30 admin

I heard quite a number of business people say 2017 was a good year

So I think it was a good year for you too

[minicarph]

You can google all you want uls but the reality remains that investors are pulling out from the PH market because of unstable fiscal policies. But of course you wont admit that.

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dream lahat bullish sa economy ngaun even sa nearby provinces. I go out Friday and Saturday, with Friday mostly in Ortigas, and Saturday in BGC, and people have lots of money spend. so many new sprouting businesses to, pero usually mga maliliit lang muna. there's too much creativity and energy, more particularly emanating from the younger millenial gen.

wag mo na kasi samahan mga kasing tanda mo, kasi talaga sa bahay na lang sila reading or watching the news. It's the age gap and some how it's showing the illusion that is the world but it's not . I tell you

I can startup 5 business ngaun na sa tingen ko maging feasible in the next years to come. hiwalayan mo na kasi ang yellow army. they are now the prophets of doom or in America, they are the or the naysayers coincidentally, in American the naysayers today are the future homeless.

puro kasi kayo macroeconomics, think microeconomics. the only way to observer micro, is to be right there in the dead center, not the passive informing yourself from charts and news.

[dreamur]

OB, apparently you are only looking at the local business condition. Here's a macroeconomic view - I belong to an industry contributing $30B a year revenue and employing 4M filipinos. That is $4B in corporate taxes and another $3B in personal income tax. Let us just assume 10% will close shops because of unfriendly tax environment. That is half a billion dollars that will drain out of the reserves. Do you think China and Russia will subsidize?

Here is a micro view - my company employs 3000 heads. Multiplier is 4 to a family so that is 12,000 mouth to feed. If the head office will decide to move operations somewhere else, do you think the duterte kitchen will feed the 12000?

Meantime, the company will offer golden parachutes to the executives. Thank you digong! And I will give a middle finger salute to the employees who are given free access to social media using company resources only to insult the motherland of the company that put food on their table and send their kids to school. Yes, I know who they are because I can read what they are posting on their walls but we tolerate it because we value freedom of expression and encourage open discussion.

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[stayhungry]

I remember chatting up a couple of BPO execs during the campaign season who said their respective companies will think of moving out if digong wins. They also said they will leave the country.

Closing in on 2 years now, they're still here. They also opened up more sites. And they haven't mentioned leaving in that time span.

*shrug* just calling it as I see it



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Stay hungry. Stay humble.

[chronicle]

^
That might change if the peza benefits will be removed on the next train tax law.

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[dreamur]

I remember chatting up a couple of BPO execs during the campaign season who said their respective companies will think of moving out if digong wins. They also said they will leave the country.

Closing in on 2 years now, they're still here. They also opened up more sites. And they haven't mentioned leaving in that time span.

*shrug* just calling it as I see it



------------------------------------------
Stay hungry. Stay humble.

^
That might change if the peza benefits will be removed on the next train tax law.

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TRAIN2 is up for approval which could cost the PEZA companies an additional tax of 50% to 200%, depending on the typenof operations. There is also the possibility of the VAT to be levied on these companies and that is added administration and man-hours to the company, plus there is low probability of refund. Most BPOs enter a lease of 5 years and SLAs at an average of 2 years. Executives do not bluff when it comes to strategic planning. 1 example is Intel. Companies will cut back on cost and discretionary benefits if they choose not to move their operations elsewhere. Not trying to be a doomsayer but it will be the low level employees who will suffer.

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[shadow]

I'm thinking because they still have contractual obligation with their existing clients Kaya hinde pa sila maka move out. But question is are there any new clients na gusto dito sa PH ilagay yun process nila?


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[A121]

I remember chatting up a couple of BPO execs during the campaign season who said their respective companies will think of moving out if digong wins. They also said they will leave the country.

Closing in on 2 years now, they're still here. They also opened up more sites. And they haven't mentioned leaving in that time span.

*shrug* just calling it as I see it



------------------------------------------
Stay hungry. Stay humble.

I think we are still cheaper than having to have the business move back to say HK, SG or even migrate the process to India.

Ang susunod na lang na tanong is if our labor pool can bring in high value processes.

[dreamur]

I'm thinking because they still have contractual obligation with their existing clients Kaya hinde pa sila maka move out. But question is are there any new clients na gusto dito sa PH ilagay yun process nila?


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Spot on...

Too short

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[dreamur]

I think we are still cheaper than having to have the business move back to say HK, SG or even migrate the process to India.

Ang susunod na lang na tanong is if our labor pool can bring in high value processes.

2 countries come to mind - Vietnam and Indonesia.

India is already siphoning tbe IT support.

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[chronicle]

I'm thinking because they still have contractual obligation with their existing clients Kaya hinde pa sila maka move out. But question is are there any new clients na gusto dito sa PH ilagay yun process nila?


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Add to that the initial investment. Building lease for x years. If the exodus will happen, it would probably be done by increments where no one will notice it.

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[stayhungry]

Add to that the initial investment. Building lease for x years. If the exodus will happen, it would probably be done by increments where no one will notice it.

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Maybe by the time the lease is up, the term of digong will be about done too then they'll share a couple more beers with me and they'd have to wait and see again who will be the new face in the chair

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Oooooor he stays in power indefinitely assuming we adopt a parliamentary Fed form of government.

Either way, BPOs will make a decision on what makes business sense to them. Even if policies or decisions or speeches hit them, if the bottom line here is still greener than anywhere else in the world, I'm thinking they stay.

It's all about the money. It's all about the dum dum dee dee dum dum.


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Stay hungry. Stay humble.

[dreamur]

^i like your positivity bro. I will drink to that.

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