Oil Price Watch

[greenlyt]

Enjoy it while it lasts, bro...

15.9K:apple:

Oo nga kaya panay ang pakarga ko ng blaze

[Ry_Tower]

Saan na mga Bwisit na leftist, dapat purihin nila govt this time dahil bumababa price kahit na alam natin walang connection govt sa price adjustment


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Saan? Nagpapa-full tank as we text.

Balik na sa $95 ang brent.

[vinj]

Saan na mga Bwisit na leftist, dapat purihin nila govt this time dahil bumababa price kahit na alam natin walang connection govt sa price adjustment


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Ano ka ba? Kulang pa daw yung pagbaba ng gasolina sabi ng mga leftist. Dapat balik daw sa P 12.50/L at kasalanan pa rin ni PNoy.

[niky]

It's a bit much to expect the militants to celebrate anything good that results from the oppressive capitalist-imperialist-industrialist conglomerate.

[uls]

https://twitter.com/petromatrix/stat...52821682798593

interest to prevent Brent breaking 95.00$/bbl but will be harder do if contango sustained/increase in Brent

[boybi]

What's happening? Brent at $92.

[uls]

wala na... those defending Brent at $95 have given up

too much selling pressure

the Fed was a disappointment

market wanted QE3 (additional money printing)

the Fed only extended Operation Twist (no additional money printing)

[uls]

if (or when) institutional investors decide to pulll out we could see $80 Brent

[greenlyt]

^ sir uls is it good or bad?
pardon my ignorance sir

[niky]

if (or when) institutional investors decide to pulll out we could see $80 Brent

Question: Will the Mid-East oil supply actually be stable at $80? We're already seeing disruptions in the region... isn't it possible that a much lower price will destabilize supply even more, causing shortages and eventually a kick back up to $100 level?

Or is it inevitable, with the only question being: "How quickly?"

[uls]

^ sir uls is it good or bad?
pardon my ignorance sir

good for consumers. more rollbacks

bad for producers whose cost of production is near $100/barrel

[Monseratto]

[Monseratto]

Bad for the arabs who need petrol dollar to keep the angry populace contented...

[uls]

Question: Will the Mid-East oil supply actually be stable at $80? We're already seeing disruptions in the region... isn't it possible that a much lower price will destabilize supply even more, causing shortages and eventually a kick back up to $100 level?

Or is it inevitable, with the only question being: "How quickly?"

ya sooner or later the market will find the floor

di pwede baba lang ng baba

when the price falls too low mawawalan ng incentive to produce and/or invest in exploration/development of new oil fields

supply will fall eventually and the price will be supported

supply demand equilibrium

[uls]

listen to this

http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Cont...pods/oilus.mp3

para di niyo isipin i'm making things up

market participants don't only track supply and demand fundamentals

matimbang mga factors outside supply and demand

like the Fed decision last night

[kotiko]

Anong most likely projection for next week? Increase? Decrease ulit? Or no change?

[uls]

rollback pa pump prices

[uls]

why low oil price bad for producers?

example Russia

Economy: Oil dependency remains a fundamental weakness - FT.com

Russia’s Higher School of Economics warns that if a global slowdown reduced oil prices even to $80 a barrel, the government would quickly burn through its $60bn rainy-day reserve fund to meet its budget obligations.

Oil dependency is seen as Russia’s biggest weakness.

This year’s budget needs an oil price of more than $120 a barrel to balance, lifting the non-oil deficit, the shortfall excluding oil and gas revenues, to 12.5 per cent of GDP. It was below 5 per cent before 2008.

Returning president Vladimir Putin, made some costly election promises which totalled about Rbs10tn ($309bn) by 2018, even excluding ambitious military spending increases, notes Sergei Aleksashenko, a former deputy central bank governor, now director of macroeconomic studies at the Higher School.

Oil prices would need to grow by $10 to $15 a year, he adds, otherwise the “budget will not be affordable”, forcing Russia to increase borrowing or reduce spending.

[uls]

example Canada

Rosy provincial forecasts fail to materialize as falling oil prices put budgets in peril | News | National Post

CALGARY — As oil prices continue to teeter, slumping Wednesday to their lowest level since October, provincial governments that have traditionally padded their budgets with resource royalties are facing the unpleasant prospect of ever-more glaring deficits in the coming months.

Saskatchewan is already creating contingency plans in case crude prices fall, as Newfoundland and Labrador premier Kathy Dunderdale warned voters that the province could be facing hard times if the price per barrel continues to dip. Alberta insists it’s too early in the fiscal year to panic, however its budget may be in for a rethink by the end of the first quarter.

[uls]

again, Canada

Lower oil prices will crimp industry spending - The Globe and Mail

Right now the industry’s fortunes are particularly sensitive to variations in oil price. In Canada, the combined sale of conventional oil plus oil sands now represents 90 per cent of the revenue mix. The remaining 10 per cent is natural gas, which has been marginalized by low price and declining production.

The dollars are big on 3.7 million barrels a day of Canadian oil production (all grades). Every $10 (U.S.) per barrel drop in the benchmark price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trickles down into a loss of about $125-million (Canadian) per week in after-tax industry cash flow.

Crude glut, price plunge put oil sands projects at risk - The Globe and Mail

Crude prices have now tumbled to a point where some oil sands plants are nearing break-even levels, and the likelihood that low prices will persist is a matter of serious concern for Alberta’s most important industry, international energy research firm Wood Mackenzie warned Monday.

The oil sands region is one of the costliest in the world to develop. And as oil prices tumble, it is vulnerable.

New oil sands mines, for example, require prices of around $80 (U.S.) a barrel to break even, Wood Mackenzie found. Add an upgrader, the “pre-refinery” that transforms heavy oil into a lighter crude that can be further refined into diesel and gasoline, and the needed break-even rises to above $100. So-called “in situ” projects, which use wells and underground steam injection to extract oil sands crude, are less vulnerable, with a break even of about $60.

Falling oil prices are the latest setback for a sector already struggling with eroding investor confidence, fast-rising construction costs, strained labour availability and strident environmental criticism.