mukhang may follower ako no?Originally Posted by andywesteast
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June 4th, 2012 06:57 PM #1062again:
meron chart, meron timeline
what triggered the rally? the ECB LTROs
what triggered the May sell off? Greece
not news about China slowdown. not news about US slowdown
the US jobs report last friday made things worse
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June 4th, 2012 08:22 PM #1066
kung susunod ako sa explanation ng dalawang fans ko yung pag rally ng Brent noong Feb-Mar-Apr ay dahil nag boom ang economy ng China and US
then the market figured out "ay! hindi pala... slowdown pala..."
so nag benta noong May
coincidence lang sa rally ang ECB LTRO noong Dec 2011 and Feb 2012
coincidence lang din sa selloff ang palpak na eleksyon sa Greece
haha
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June 4th, 2012 08:35 PM #1067o nga pala...
kung susunod ako sa explanation na bumagsak ang oil price dahil madaming langis sa Canada...
di yata alam ng market noong Feb madami langis sa Canada
tapos noong May nalaman ng market
"pre, alam mo ba madami langis sa Canada?"
"oo nga pre... last month ko lang nalaman... kaya binenta ko yung brent pre"
hahaha
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June 4th, 2012 10:45 PM #1068obvious naman na the world cannot survive without oil. even if there are alternative energy sources like the upcoming electric motors and solar powered cells, the worlds needs to hedge on oil coz the entire global economy depends on it. Originally Posted by uls
wala eh yun ginawa ng US noon 30's eh. and they chose Middle East bec. the Arabs can be good guardians of oil bec. of their somewhat fundamentalist nature. eh ano naman ngaun kung oil or fossil fuel is like water, it can be found anywhere. at least sa oil you need to dig underground, and somewhat portray an illusion that it's a scarce resource unlike gold and diamonds na talagang scarce.
so kesa araw-araw nyo monitor yan, why not come up with a figure, hindi cheap, hindi din sobrang mahal and lock it for 2 or 5 years. in that way, andun yun element scarcity bec. it's somehow expensive and andun pa din profits ng mga oil cartels na we all know hindi-hindi naman magpapa-letgo yan. kita mo nga si *SG, tatay nya top exec ng Shell, kaya dami niya suv: tucson, sportage, sta fe, explorer etc. you cannot just tell *SG's dad, hey yun binebenta mo naman eh hindi naman talaga ganun ka-rare. eh di pano na yun mga suvs nila. ganun din top execs ng Oil cartels sa buong mundo. and so they are the powers that be.
bigay na lang natin what credit or greed is due. and let's go on with our lives.
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June 4th, 2012 10:58 PM #1070Hinde lang oil ang umaakyat baba. Maraming commodities are traded also. Everything is determined by market forces
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June 5th, 2012 12:15 AM #1071brent intraday low $95.84
then bounced strongly from there
looks like brent is oversold
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June 5th, 2012 09:57 AM #1072Brent in 99 dollar territory
did i say the right price for Brent is a hundred?
looks like Brent wants to go there
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June 5th, 2012 10:19 AM #1074and why did oil rally last night?
not coz of the US. not coz China
it's Europe
https://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetail...ed/Oil/6353382
Much of the oil complex staged a rally in late US afternoon trading Monday, as the future of the euro was given a boost on comments by European Council President Herman Von Rompuy.
Von Rompuy said in Moscow that EU leaders would develop a plan for stronger economic integration by the end of 2012, with plans for steps to be taken to be released sometime in June, according to news reports.
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June 5th, 2012 02:22 PM #1075 Originally Posted by uls
So ULS, you are even Smarter than Bloomberg now?
Falling Oil Prices Are No Mystery
Global oil consumption has been declining since the end of 2011, falling to 88.5 million barrels per day at the end of April, from 90.4 million barrels per day in late December 2011. At the same time, world oil production has risen steadily for more than a year, driven by new finds and drilling techniques in North America.", Bloomberg, June 4, 2012
hahahahaLast edited by andywesteast; June 5th, 2012 at 02:36 PM.
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June 5th, 2012 02:34 PM #1076another one of those after-the-fact summaries
am i supposed to be impressed?
that only explains the spread between WTI and BrentAt the same time, world oil production has risen steadily for more than a year, driven by new finds and drilling techniques in North America
WTI is ~20 dollars cheaper than Brent coz of too much oil in the US
if all that oil in the US has an effect on GLOBAL supply Brent should have fallen close to the price of WTI
WTI is at a discount to brent coz all that oil in the US can't get out of the US
pathetic attempt
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June 5th, 2012 03:06 PM #1078Why the US-Canada market is not a global benchmark...
The Basics of Oil Investing: The WTI-Brent Spread
Understanding the WTI-Brent Spread
WTI is a regional benchmark reflective of supply/demand issues in the American Midwest, while Brent is a European benchmark reflective of specific European issues (with slightly higher exposure to regions such as Africa and the Mideast).
WTI is a crude oil specific to the Midwest region of the United States. Where you find it that explains its large discount to Brent. There is a glut in the amount of crude oil going to refineries in the Midwest due to an increased supply from Canada and North Dakota’s Bakken Shale. The excess supply pushes prices of WTI at the refineries in Cushing, Oklahoma.
Brent reflects the supply/demand balance in Europe. Because of this, many industry analysts believe that Brent is a more global benchmark and reacts more to global events. Think of how the issues in Libya last year and now Syria and Iran pushed Brent prices higher.
Two ETFs, the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO), which tracks WTI futures, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE: BNO), which offers exposure to Brent crude, show the performance difference of the major benchmarks over the last few years. Since its inception in mid 2010, BNO and Brent oil alike have put a beating on WTI with a return around 75% for the fund. In comparison, USO has gained 25% – which isn’t bad.
The graph below gives us a visual of the difference:
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June 5th, 2012 03:07 PM #1079*sg, bakit niloloko tayo ng shell sa nitro+ nila kuno?
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June 5th, 2012 03:07 PM #1080Why US-Canada market is not the global benchmark...
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/May/...nt-spread.html
Understanding the WTI-Brent Spread
WTI is a regional benchmark reflective of supply/demand issues in the American Midwest, while Brent is a European benchmark reflective of specific European issues (with slightly higher exposure to regions such as Africa and the Mideast).
WTI is a crude oil specific to the Midwest region of the United States. Where you find it that explains its large discount to Brent. There is a glut in the amount of crude oil going to refineries in the Midwest due to an increased supply from Canada and North Dakota’s Bakken Shale. The excess supply pushes prices of WTI at the refineries in Cushing, Oklahoma.
Brent reflects the supply/demand balance in Europe. Because of this, many industry analysts believe that Brent is a more global benchmark and reacts more to global events. Think of how the issues in Libya last year and now Syria and Iran pushed Brent prices higher.
Two ETFs, the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO), which tracks WTI futures, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE: BNO), which offers exposure to Brent crude, show the performance difference of the major benchmarks over the last few years. Since its inception in mid 2010, BNO and Brent oil alike have put a beating on WTI with a return around 75% for the fund. In comparison, USO has gained 25% – which isn’t bad.
The graph below gives us a visual of the difference:
Last edited by Monseratto; June 5th, 2012 at 03:11 PM.
Originally Posted by andywesteast
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