Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[mazzipino]

PAGASA:

[goldencoil]

Ang nakakatakot pa sa ganito, it may not need a super typhoon para bumaha kaagad sa Manila kasi yung current situation ay hindi pa nareremedyuhan. Haay. Sana naman wag nang mangyari to....

[redorange]

There are four possible forecast for Parma(Pepeng) two showing it going into the Philippines and two showing it moving north to Japan and Korea. The ones who issued the forecast going to Luzon is Korea and Japan. Pagasa and JTWC issued the ones going towards Korea and Japan. I hope they all compromise and just make it go towards Taiwan. Normally the storms coming from this area track toward Batanes and brings some rain to Manila but with the flooding right now, Manila doesn't really need that rain. There is another one coming that is still being tracked and that is Melor which they expect to be here by weekend and probably another 3-4 days before Philippine Area of Responsibilty.

[Hanren]

Latest updates:

From JTWC: [URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1909.gif]




This is the prognostic reasoning (for meteorologists or PAGASA )

WDPN33 PGTW 301500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W WARNING NR 12// RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-VECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. A 300848Z SSMISPASS SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING IS LOCATED AROUND A SMALL EYE, WITHADDITIONAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN POR-TION OF TY 19W FROM THE WEST.

PARMA (PEPING) IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERNQUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLEDIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO AMPLIFY THE CURRENT INTENSITY INCREASES SEEN OVERTHE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.

TRACK SPEED HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENTOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W CONTINUE TO TRACKTOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PARMA AND IS CLOSING THE DISTANCEBETWEEN THE TWO.3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURSWITH A SINGLE TRACK SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72.

TY 19W (PARMA) WILL TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND CONTINUE TOINTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHAPPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TOTRACK TOWARDS TY 19W AND BE ABSORBED BY TAU 48, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ASIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE INTENSITY OR TRACK FOR TY 19W. FAVORABLEUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR TY 19WTO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.

C. MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH AVNIAND GFNI SHOWING A TRACK AGROSS NORTHERN LUZON. NGPI AND EGR2 SHOW AMORE NORTHWARD TRACK. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ECMWF SHOWS TY 19WTRACKING TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A CLOSERAPPROACH TO LUZON WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LUZONSTRAIT AND STARTS TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE MID-LATITUDE FLOWIS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AFTER TAU 72, AND THE STR I***PECTED TO BUILD A WESTWARD EXTENSION OVER EASTERN CHINA AND TAIWAN.TY 19W WILL SLOW AROUND TAU 72 AS IT DRIVES INTO THE EXTENSION OF THERIDGE.//NNNN

From Japan Met Agency [URL:http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0917.html]

[CVT]

If that typhoon does pass over Northern Luzon versus stopping off the East Luzon coast then veering north (based on the forecast track a few days ago), guess where the potential for enhanced southwest monsoon flow will be? Deja vu?

I get your drift, bro.

Scary for us.....

8701:soccer:

[renzo_d10]

Pumapatak nanaman ang ulan sa bubong ng bahay.....:rained_down:

[ssaloon]

Lakas na ng ulan dito sa amin, coupled with strong wind too (QC area)

[renzo_d10]

News Patrol 12nn : Rain + Strong Wind

Paktay, mga billboard at poste naman ang target nitong si pepeng.

[oliver1013]

Umuulan nanaman.....

[Zeus]

Kanina narinig ko sa news, umaabot 150 km/h na yung hangin ni Pepeng a...