World economy talk

[Ry_Tower]

there's opportunity to make a lot of money buying WTI then selling to European refiners at Brent price

that arbitrage is totally obvious but nobody's doing it

if it's being done then the amount of oil stored at Cushing would decrease which would cause WTI price to meet up with Brent

the only explanation i can think of is it is not easy to transport oil stored at Cushing to a port for export

Esp since the US is known to be very strict in monitoring its oil reserves. Parang 20 years reserve ata sila eh if I rememeber correctly.

[Ry_Tower]

there are powerful interests who want to eliminate borders in Europe

their long term goal is to eliminate sovereign governments in each European country and have only one govt for the whole of Europe

look at what's happening to Greece -- their govt is now being dictated by supranationals

we are seeing Greece lose its sovereignty

Europe has long been a continent mired with wars since the major countries of long ago time all want the same, supremacy. Pataasan ng ihi so eventually, one wants to be the supremo. Tanong is kung sino, brits, german, french? Even the spaniard dreams of it IMO.

[uls]

Esp since the US is known to be very strict in monitoring its oil reserves. Parang 20 years reserve ata sila eh if I rememeber correctly.

20 yrs?

na-confuse ka yata

we are talking about oil reserves stored in tanks. not oil under the ground that hasnt been pumped out yet

iba ang oil sa Cushing. iba ang oil sa Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

sa SPR there's 700M+ barrels of oil (that's about 30 days supply based on US oil consumption rate)

the SPR is controlled by the USG

Cushing oil is owned by oil companies

Cushing inventory is monitored by the US energy dept but the govt doesnt control oil there

the govt has no right to control it. it's privately owned

[Ry_Tower]

20 yrs?

na-confuse ka yata

we are talking about oil reserves stored in tanks. not oil under the ground that hasnt been pumped out yet

iba ang oil sa Cushing. iba ang oil sa Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

sa SPR there's 700M+ barrels of oil (that's about 30 days supply based on US oil consumption rate)

the SPR is controlled by the USG

Cushing oil is owned by oil companies

Cushing inventory is monitored by the US energy dept but the govt doesnt control oil there

the govt has no right to control it. it's privately owned

Ah sorry, got confused nga. Thanks for clearing that up.

I was alluding to the SPR na pala.

[safeorigin]

interesting chart analysis at the end

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SJeOplfPEs"]YouTube - ‪Prof Steve Keen: Will there be a Double Dip in the USA? Part Two‬‏[/ame]

[uls]

some posts ago i mentioned that Brent spot price is higher than futures prices (sign of scarcity -- demand for immediate delivery over future delivery)

IEA releasing oil reserves changed that

Brent spot price is now lower than Brent futures prices

IEA suddenly putting 60M barrels of sweet crude on the market changed everything

question is how long this will last

btw, i also mentioned the IEA move has a stronger impact on Brent than WTI

which i think is really their goal -- to lower the price of Brent (THE oil price benchmark)

i would like to make a correction re this post

Brent spot is still higher than Brent futures

it's the futures prices that have flipped

previously Aug futures was higher than September futures, and Sept futures was higher than Oct futures

since the IEA move, the nearer month futures have fallen below farther month futures

sorry for the mistake

[uls]

EURCHF



Swiss National Bank will probably intervene

[uls]

George Soros:

"The euro had no provision for correction. There was no arrangement for any country leaving the euro, which in the current circumstances is probably inevitable,"

"There is no plan B at the moment. That is why the authorities are sticking to the status quo and insisting on preserving the existing arrangements instead of recognising there are fundamental flaws that need to be corrected."

George Soros says it is 'probably inevitable' a country will leave euro - Telegraph

[Monseratto]

Brent oil futures open today’s trading session under $104 after last week’s bold announcement by the IEA to add 60 million barrels of oil to the market has investors and traders wondering just how much this will affect oil prices in the medium term.

In London, Brent crude oil futures for August 2011 delivery was trading at $103.54 a barrel, 06.40 GMT this morning on the ICE Futures Exchange.

Brent oil price dips under $104, oil supply concerns remain | Oil Prices, Oil Trading

[uls]

in the Greece parliament, the ruling party has 155 seats out of 300

the austerity plan will pass right?

that is if some ruling party MPs don't decide to become rebels and vote against the plan

hang on

[Monseratto]

International pacman...

China eyes Canada oil, US's energy nest egg - Yahoo! News

CALGARY, Alberta – In the northern reaches of Alberta lies a vast reserve of oil that the U.S. views as a pillar of its future energy needs.

China, with a growing appetite for oil that may one day surpass that of the U.S., is ready to spend the dollars for a big piece of it.

The oil sands of this Canadian province are so big that they will be able to serve both of the world's largest economies as production expands in the coming years. But that will mean building at least two pipelines, one south to the Texas Gulf Coast and another west toward the Pacific, and that in turn means fresh environmental battles on top of those already raging over the costly and energy-intensive method of extracting oil from sand.

Most believe that both will eventually be built. But if the U.S. doesn't approve its pipeline promptly, Canada might increasingly look to China, thinking America doesn't want a big stake share in what environmentalists call "dirty oil," which they say increases greenhouse gas emissions.

Alberta has the world's third largest oil reserves, more than 170 billion barrels. Daily production of 1.5 million barrels from the oil sands is expected to nearly triple to 3.7 million in 2025. Overall, Alberta has more oil than Russia or Iran. Only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela have more.

By investing to boost Canadian production the Chinese "are growing the pie to meet their own demand. That's a whole lot better than mopping up supply from the existing pie and creating competition for resources," Goldwyn said.

But China would almost certainly react badly to a rebuff. Alberta Energy Minister Ron Liepert fears Chinese investment will dry up should Canada not approve a pipeline to the West Coast.

Zhang Junsai, China's ambassador to Canada, said his country is willing to invest heavily in Canada. He told The Associated Press that the fact that China's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp., chose Toronto as the venue for its first overseas office is a "very good sign." The fund invested $800 million in Calgary-based Penn West Energy last year and $1.5 billion in Canadian mining company Teck Resources in 2009.

William Cohen, who was secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, said any Chinese-Canadian oil partnership must be done "with some diplomacy and care," in a way that isn't "a threat to the United States."

Canada can do whatever it wants, but "Canada knows it has a very close and vital relationship with the United States. I'm sure there will be discussions," he said in Toronto after a public debate about whether China will dominate the 21st century.

Eddie Goldenberg, chief of staff to former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, said in an interview that Canada should care less if some American officials are leery about Canada selling oil to China.

"We're not the 51st state. It's not the business of the United States to decide where Canada sells its resources," he said.

[uls]

USDCHF

[safeorigin]

hmmm...

Greeks Turn Savings to Gold and Perth Mint Silver Coin Sales Surge to Record on Haven Demand
Published in Market Updates Precious Metals Update on 22 June 2011

Gold is trading at $1,544.31/oz, €1,072.96/oz and £957.30/oz.

Gold is lower in dollars but higher in euros and has reached new record highs in pounds sterling at £958.25/oz. Gold is being supported by strong and increasing demand internationally.

Sterling has fallen after the BoE minutes raised concerns of further quantitative easing and currency debasement. The Bank of England looks increasingly likely to maintain its ultra accommodative monetary policies. Interest rates may continue to remain at multi century lows and the BoE is again considering more printing of money to buy government debt.

Greeks Turn Savings to Gold and Perth Mint Silver Coin Sales Surge to Record on Haven Demand | www.goldcore.com

[uls]

U.S. Repo Close: Current 5-Year Note at Lowest Rate, Minus 0.1% - Bloomberg

Lowest Repo Rate as of 10 a.m. New York time:

The 5-year note closed at the lowest repo rate: negative 0.1 percent, unchanged.

[uls]

oil rallied last night

Brent futures now higher than spot

CBY00 (Cash) 104.73s
CBQ11 (Aug '11) 108.22
CBU11 (Sep '11) 108.10
CBV11 (Oct '11) 108.26
CBX11 (Nov '11) 108.39
CBZ11 (Dec '11) 108.48

[Ry_Tower]

oil rallied last night

Brent futures now higher than spot

Parang na-feel lang nila na masasave Greece bawi agad sa oil ah. Tama ba?

[uls]

ya the market is expecting Greece parliament to pass the austerity plan

kaya risk on

stocks up, commodities up, bonds down (price down yield up)

---

Nike



--

US 10 yr yield back to 3%

[uls]

Greece austerity vote 2PM Athens time

[uls]

so much for IEA's 60 million barrel weapon

the effect is gone

[Ry_Tower]

so much for IEA's 60 million barrel weapon

the effect is gone

Sabi na nga ba eh, this won't last long kasi kunti lang naman vs actual demand for this year. Price hike sa weekend, bawi lang.