World economy talk

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Euro down after ECB Draghi's comments on euro zone outlook | Reuters

(Reuters) - The euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar and sank against the yen on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said risks to the bank's outlook for the euro zone were to the downside and that the exchange rate is important for growth and price stability.

European powers-that-be are concerned over Japan's commitment to a weaker currency

the strong euro has negative effect on European exports

the pressure is on the ECB to weaken the euro if it continues to strenghten

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Japan's direct competitor is S. Korea (high-end electronics, automobiles)

KRW strength/JPY weakness hurting Korean companies

S.Korea Funds Record Largest Outflows Since 2009, Citigroup Says - Bloomberg

South Korea’s Kospi Index has fallen 2.5 percent this year as Samsung Electronics Co. predicted a stronger won may cut operating profit by $2.8 billion this year and Hyundai Motor Co. reported a decline in fourth-quarter earnings because of the currency’s appreciation. Some 75 percent of Kospi companies have reported quarterly profit that missed estimates, according to data on 69 corporate results compiled by Bloomberg.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0B84SR20130208

UPDATE 1-Japan's Aso: yen has weakened more than intended

TOKYO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that the yen has weakened more than intended during its recent decline to around 90 per dollar from around 78 yen a few months ago.

The dollar fell about 1 percent versus the yen shortly after Aso comments, as traders pared bets on further declines in the Japanese currency.

Since November, the yen has fallen around 16 percent versus the dollar in anticipation that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will push his agenda of aggressive monetary policy easing to weaken the currency.

The finance minister's comments indicate some surprise within the government at how quickly those expectations among traders translated into declines in the yen.

"It seems that the government's policies have fueled expectations and the yen weakened more than we intended in the move to around 90 from 78," Aso told lawmakers in the lower house budget committee.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jap...ced-2013-02-08

Japan: Aso meant to say yen's fall 'fast-paced'

TOKYO--The Japanese finance ministry on Friday clarified a remark by Finance Minister Taro Aso that sparked a bout of yen buybacks earlier in the day, saying Mr. Aso had meant to say the yen's recent fall had been "fast-paced," rather than unexpected.

The clarification was made after Mr. Aso said during a parliamentary session the dollar had "abruptly risen to the Y90 level from the previous Y78-Y79 level in a manner we didn't anticipate."

The MOF official declined to make any further comment, apparently out of concern that further clarification would be taken as an attempt to talk down the yen.

The yen has fallen about 10% against the dollar since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office Dec. 26, vowing to stamp out deflation through aggressive monetary easing.

The rapid depreciation of the yen has sparked criticism that Japan is attempting competitive devaluation of its currency.

Mr. Aso's remark sent the yen rallying, with the dollar dropping to around Y92 from Y93, apparently giving market participants an excuse to take profits on the dollar ahead of a three-day weekend.

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boom!



Buffett buys Heinz

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boom!


Constellation Brands gets Grupo Modelo's Piedras Niegras brewery and perpetual rights for Corona brand beer and other Grupo Modelo brands

[Ry_Tower]

boom!



Buffett buys Heinz

May midas touch talaga itong si Buffet! Matindi.

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perfect correlation Nikkei and USDJPY

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'Hot money' hits two-year high | BusinessWorld Online

“HOT MONEY” hit a 26-month high in January as a strong Philippine economy attracted foreign investors, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) yesterday said.

Foreign portfolio investments are comprised of placements in the local stock and bond markets; the term "hot money" comes from the ease by which these can be taken in and out of the country.

Foreign portfolio investments hit a net inflow of $1.27 billion last month, the highest since November 2010’s $1.663 billion, the central bank said in a statement. It was more than twice the $586.01 million posted a year earlier.

obvious where a lot of that money is coming from...

the Philippines ETF managed by BlackRock

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effect of weaker yen

Bridgestone Targets Record Profit on Weak Yen

TOKYO--Bridgestone Corp. (5108.TO) said Monday it is looking to break an eight-year-old profit record this year, as a weaker yen helps boost the bottom line of the world's largest tire maker despite concerns over the faltering economy in Europe.

Company executives acknowledged that the depreciation of the yen will also increase the cost of imported raw materials needed to make its products, but they said the impact will be outweighed by improved profitability of exports from Japan of high-margin large tires such as those used by mining vehicles.

bad for competitors

The upswing in Bridgestone's forecast provides a stark contrast with downbeat outlooks by its two main global peers-- Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin (ML.FR) of France and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. ( GT ), both of which cited sluggish auto demand in Europe to explain their gloomier profit views.

Bridgestone, the world's largest tire manufacturer by volume, said it expects net profit to rise 37% to a record 235 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in 2013, far eclipsing its previous all-time high of Y180.7 billion in 2005.

Michelin warned its overall volume and earnings probably won't grow this year and Goodyear, which will take additional steps to cut costs in Europe on top of a previously announced factory closure in France, lowered its operating income forecast to between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion compared with the previous $1.6 billion.

[glenn manikis]

sir uls at mga ka tsikot ano po ba ang forecast nyo ng peso to the dollar this year po?

we are into importing po kasi.... napakalaking factor kasi ang value ng peso sa dollar sa price ng products namin....

[Ry_Tower]

sir uls at mga ka tsikot ano po ba ang forecast nyo ng peso to the dollar this year po?

we are into importing po kasi.... napakalaking factor kasi ang value ng peso sa dollar sa price ng products namin....

IMHO and limited knowledge, trend seems to point na mas magiging malakas pa peso vs us dollar. But mahaba pa taon, puwede pa magbago.

[uls]

sir uls at mga ka tsikot ano po ba ang forecast nyo ng peso to the dollar this year po?

we are into importing po kasi.... napakalaking factor kasi ang value ng peso sa dollar sa price ng products namin....

the Bangko Sentral has been working really hard to keep USDPHP above 40

if it wasnt for the BSP USDPHP would already be in the high 30s

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uh oh

Foxconn freezes recruitment in China - FT.com

Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer, has imposed a recruitment freeze across almost all of its factories in China as it slows production of Apple’s iPhone 5.

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the other major currency being shorted

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effect of weaker currency

Toyota to Boost Domestic Production in April
Published February 19, 2013
Dow Jones Newswires
TOKYO – Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) has decided to ramp up domestic output in April by around 10% from original plans as sales track higher than expected and the weaker yen helps raise the profitability of exports, The Nikkei reported in its Wednesday morning edition.

Anticipating new-vehicle sales would decline after the end of the eco-car subsidies last year, the automaker had planned to reduce daily output from roughly 14,000 vehicles in the January-March period to some 12,000.

But recent sales have been strong, with the all-new Crown luxury sedan released in December and the Aqua compact hybrid providing a boost. Export conditions to North America have also improved because of the yen's depreciation.

As a result, Toyota will raise daily production for April by around 1,000 vehicles to a little over 13,000, and is considering maintaining that level in May.

The company is seen logging its first nonconsolidated operating profit in five years in fiscal 2012. It will likely hire more seasonal workers to accommodate the production increase.

Toyota projected at the end of last year that domestic sales in 2013 would shrink by 17% to 1.4 million units. But the revised output plans as they stand now would raise that figure by around 50,000 units. Production levels for June and beyond will be decided based on market trends.

Copyright © 2013 Dow Jones Newswires

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Caterpillar Inc.
Past 3 Months Dealer Statistics

Retail Sales of Machines by marketing region for the 3-month rolling period compared with the same months of the prior year:

------------January 2013 December 2012 November 2012
Asia/Pacific DOWN 12% DOWN 7% UP 2%
EAME* UP 1% UP 4% UP 3%
Latin America UP 3% UP 14% UP 15%
ROW** 0% UP 2% UP 6%
North America DOWN 11% DOWN 6% UP 3%
World DOWN 4% DOWN 1% UP 5%

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Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer, has imposed a recruitment freeze across almost all of its factories in China as it slows production of Apple’s iPhone 5.

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flight to dollar

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flight to US treasuries

10 yr note

30 yr bond