World economy talk

[uls]

wti cash and futures

CLY00 (Cash) 92.89s
CLQ11 (Aug '11) 94.74
CLU11 (Sep '11) 95.33
CLV11 (Oct '11) 95.80
CLX11 (Nov '11) 96.36
CLZ11 (Dec '11) 96.91

brent cash and futures

CBY00 (Cash) 107.77s
CBQ11 (Aug '11) 112.04
CBU11 (Sep '11) 112.01
CBV11 (Oct '11) 112.39
CBX11 (Nov '11) 112.63
CBZ11 (Dec '11) 112.60

this was Brent 24 hours ago

CBY00 (Cash) 104.73s
CBQ11 (Aug '11) 108.22
CBU11 (Sep '11) 108.10
CBV11 (Oct '11) 108.26
CBX11 (Nov '11) 108.39
CBZ11 (Dec '11) 108.48

hey IEA, what you gonna go now? tell your members to release more oil reserves?

[uls]

Fed: higher swipe fees

[uls]

today is the last day of QE2

PIMCO's Bill Gross asks --

Gross: D-Day for QEII – who will buy them now?

Twitter

treasury dump

US 10 yr yield


10 yr futures

[Monseratto]

New IMF Chief is French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, first woman to hold that position...but what about her disgraced predecessor? Hmm...conspiracy?

Case against Strauss-Kahn near collapse - NYT - World - GMA News Online - Latest Philippine News
07/01/2011 | 09:36 AM

NEW YORK - The case against former International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who was charged with ***ually assaulting a hotel housekeeper, is near collapse, the New York Times reported on Thursday.

The paper quoted what it said were two well-placed law enforcement officials as saying that although forensic evidence showed there had been a ***ual encounter between the French politician and the maid, the accuser had repeatedly lied and prosecutors did not believe much about what she had told them about the circumstances and about herself.

It said prosecutors had met with Strauss-Kahn's lawyers on Thursday and the parties were discussing whether to dismiss the felony charges.

Strauss-Kahn's defense attorney, Benjamin Brafman, said earlier on Thursday that their client would go back to court in New York on Friday at 11:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) before Judge Michael Obus to seek changes to his bail conditions.

Strauss-Kahn, 62, had been a leading candidate for the French presidency when he was arrested on May 14. He resigned from the IMF on May 19 and pleaded not guilty on June 6, vehemently denying the allegations.

He was released on $1 million cash bail and a $5 million bond, and is under house arrest in a townhouse in the Tribeca neighborhood of Manhattan, where he is equipped with an electronic monitoring device and under the 24-hour watch of armed guards.

He faces up to 25 years in prison if convicted. — Reuters

[uls]

corn

[uls]

great week for stocks

S&P500


1-month chart

[uls]

hey, the world didnt end

no need to hoard gold

gold below $1500

1-month chart

[uls]

guess ano magiging effect ng Thai election sa price ng rice

the populist government will implement a policy to buy rice from farmers at above market price

Thailand is the world's biggest rice exporter

other rice exporters will follow Thailand price

[Ry_Tower]

guess ano magiging effect ng Thai election sa price ng rice

the populist government will implement a policy to buy rice from farmers at above market price

Thailand is the world's biggest rice exporter

other rice exporters will follow Thailand price

kawawang pinas.

price increase na naman sa bigas.

[uls]

winning bidders of 30 million barrels of SPR oil:



those who still don't know what a speculator is...

Barclays bought 200,000 barrels of oil

a freaking bank bought 200,000 barrels of oil

[Monseratto]

After Greece...

Instant view: Portugal downgraded to junk by Moody's | Reuters

Tue Jul 5, 2011 2:58pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday cut Portugal's credit rating by four levels to Ba2, two notches into junk territory, saying there is great risk the country will need a second round of official financing before it can return to capital markets.

[uls]

WTI spot and futures prices

CLY00 (Cash) 96.89s
CLQ11 (Aug '11) 97.13
CLU11 (Sep '11) 97.58
CLV11 (Oct '11) 98.09
CLX11 (Nov '11) 98.51
CLZ11 (Dec '11) 99.03

[uls]

After Greece...

Instant view: Portugal downgraded to junk by Moody's | Reuters

seeing what's happening to Greece, we can assume any future bailout (Portugal, Ireland) will involve private sector bondholders

to avoid getting involved, the tendency is investors will avoid sovereign debt of bailout-risk countries

which makes things worse for Portugal coz Portugal is trying to fix itself so it can go back to raising money from the private sector

the EU condition of private sector involvement scares away the private sector

so Portugal will have to be supported by bailout money longer than planned

Greece infects Portugal

CONTAGION

[uls]

Portugal 2 yr yield


Ireland 2 yr yield

[Ry_Tower]

I guess its only logical na hindi ka mag-invest sa Portugal and Ireland because Greece has an effect also on their future financial standing. Papano yun? Masyadong risky nga ata.

BTW: It would take such a high rate of return para maka-attract sila but unfortunately wala nga silang liquid assets. So papano nga naman mababayaran debts? tama ba uls?

[uls]

I guess its only logical na hindi ka mag-invest sa Portugal and Ireland because Greece has an effect also on their future financial standing. Papano yun? Masyadong risky nga ata.

BTW: It would take such a high rate of return para maka-attract sila but unfortunately wala nga silang liquid assets. So papano nga naman mababayaran debts? tama ba uls?

their governments don't collect enough taxes to service debt payments

their debt payments are financed by borrowing. they've been doing that for years

it's ok as long as interest rates are low

but good times always come to an end

when creditors start demanding higher interest rates from you coz they perceive you as a high risk borrower, you're screwed

--

from the creditors' POV

here's why you don't screw bondholders --

the EU now wants bondholders to suffer losses (political move -- to appease the public)

the unintended consequence -- investors in european periphery bonds now have to factor in losses disguised as rollover

which makes bonds of european periphery countries a lot riskier than they were before

so rates are surging

which makes things worse of Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy

bet the politicians didnt see this coming

[tidus1203]

Greece has no way out, the only logical way out is a DEBT FORGIVENESS. Wala ng iba!!!

Even if they get a bailout it won't last cause the austerity will crimp the economy and the economy won't be able to raise enough taxes to pay those loans back. Tapos they need another bailout again...

[uls]

Italy gets infected

Unicredit

[Monseratto]

ECB Raises Rate to Highest Since March 2009 - Bloomberg

The European Central Bank raised interest rates to the highest in more than two years to keep up its fight against inflation as the region’s sovereign debt crisis persists.

Officials meeting in Frankfurt today increased the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent, matching forecasts by all 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That’s the highest since March 2009. The central bank will raise borrowing costs further in October, according to a separate survey.

[Monseratto]

Newcorp of Rupert Murdoch...owner of british tabloid News of the World.