World economy talk

[uls]

massive amount of wealth wiped out

never recovered since then

[tidus1203]

Yep. 40K for the N225 in 1989 tapos ngayon less than 10K na lang... Japan is in a long term bear market ever since the bubble collapsed. Baka patay na tayo and those 40K values won't even happen...

[tidus1203]

Sold QID today 17.65, gotta protect those gains...

[uls]

Fed POMO last night (10:15)

Fed bought US treasuries from the PDs

and what did the PDs do with the money?

they pumped up stocks

--

POMO = permanent open market operations

PD = primary dealer

[uls]

[tidus1203]

Was it just 2 weeks ago people here were asking what is going on with Gold? I told them to relax and its just a correction and that markets move in waves and not a straight line... What's important is the long term trend is intact and it has always been...

[uls]

there's still strong interest in gold ETFs

big hedge funds like Soros Fund Management and Paulson and Co. have large holdings of GLD

check out their 13F filing

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1..._13f-soros.txt

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...-10-000005.txt

[tidus1203]

Yeah that is how it all works. Long term trends only fall if the anchors (aka the big guys who are convinced on owning gold) are loose... But the only one who fled the ship are the small guys who was trading around only (thus a correction)...

[Monseratto]

After the Obama goverment left the previous investors with nothing but toilet paper, would you dare want to invest in the "new" GM IPO? The profits will be used to pay off the money owed to the US goverment. Isn't the UAW a major stake holder in the "new" GM and was the one of the reason why the "old" GM declared chapter 11?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11019581

General Motors unveils plans for a massive share sale

General Motors has paved the way for an initial public offering (IPO), expected to be the second largest, perhaps even the largest, share sale in US history.

GM, 61%-owned by the US government, has officially filed its proposals with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

[tidus1203]

Well any IPO is always a risk... I still prefer to trade on the secondary market...

[tidus1203]

US stock markets getting CRUSHED! DAMN, now I am feeling regret for selling my QID.... Hahaha I am feeling traders emotions....

Anyway, mukang nagkaroon ng sell off after jobless claims have risen instead of declined as they expected. Also lots of data showing economic slowdown like The Philly Fed saying manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic area dropped!

[uls]

[Monseratto]

Japan -style recession coming soon? Anyone for double dippin?

Spike in layoffs feeds fear of faltering recovery


WASHINGTON – Layoffs are back, and that's bad news for the fragile economic recovery.

New applications for unemployment benefits hit a nine-month high last week — a spike that suggests private employers may shed jobs this month for the first time this year.

Workers are losing construction jobs in Georgia and manufacturing jobs in Indiana. Some of the layoffs are coming as stimulus money dries up and public works projects come to a halt. Government employees are being let go, too, as states and cities grapple with budget crises.

Without more jobs, consumers will not feel secure enough to spend much money, further slowing the economy. The grim outlook has economists lowering their estimates for growth in the second half of the year. And on Thursday it led to a sell-off on Wall Street led by investors worried that the United States could tumble back into recession.

"Today's news on the economy has been nothing but awful," Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. "The recovery is clearly slowing."

[tidus1203]

Japan style deflation... No

Double Dippin' - HELL YEAH!

[uls]

check out 10 yr yield

[tidus1203]

Back to the safety of receiving almost nothing for letting Uncle Sam use your money and then he prints more of it and dilute it... Either way, you're screwed...

[uls]

the presence of the Fed in the bond market is suppressing treasury yield

you have this huge buyer (the Fed) in the bond market

everyone frontruns the Fed by buying treasuries and selling the treasuries to the Fed on POMO days

it's an unnatural market

it's weird

i think the goal of the Fed is to hold down USG borrowing cost

Gold is up again due to ETF buying

those betting on gold are betting on hyperinflation sometime in the future

don't know when that will happen

the situation is scary now

the Fed is beginning to be convinced deflation is a real threat

hence QE1.5

soon it will be QE2 -- full blast QE

if they succeed in creating inflation, the pendulum will swing too far --> hyperinflation

i understand why Soros and Paulson and the other big players are holding gold

[tidus1203]

Fidelity says that 401(K) hardship withdrawals are UP!

In the wake of news about a spike in new applications for unemployment benefits comes another potentially troubling sign: A record number of workers made hardship withdrawals from their retirement accounts in the second quarter.
What's more, the number of workers borrowing from their accounts reached a 10-year high, according to a report issued Friday by Fidelity Investments.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fideli...&asset=&ccode=


To those who are not on the know. A 401(K) account is a retirement account that is TAX FREE as permissible by law. The IRS (BIR equivalent in the US) does not allow people to withdraw from their 401(K) accounts until retirement age. People face stiff penalties for withdrawal before retirement kasi nga tax free na yun...


However, the law permits under extreme circumstances of hardship that a person can withdraw from their 401(K) and not get penalized. Of course they have to prove that!


That is the so-called 301(K) hardship withdrawal the article is talking about...

[Monseratto]

Japan style deflation... No

Double Dippin' - HELL YEAH!

The US goverment only stimulated the economy once so far and already having second thoughts on doing another, especially with mid term elections this year. The Japanese NDP goverment tried to stimulate their economy 15X in the past decade and they are still stuck.

[uls]

Fidelity says that 401(K) hardship withdrawals are UP!




http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fideli...&asset=&ccode=


To those who are not on the know. A 401(K) account is a retirement account that is TAX FREE as permissible by law. The IRS (BIR equivalent in the US) does not allow people to withdraw from their 401(K) accounts until retirement age. People face stiff penalties for withdrawal before retirement kasi nga tax free na yun...


However, the law permits under extreme circumstances of hardship that a person can withdraw from their 401(K) and not get penalized. Of course they have to prove that!


That is the so-called 301(K) hardship withdrawal the article is talking about...

401K was invented to kaltas sweldo from employees

the money is channeled into stocks

those who benefited from the invention are mutual funds

---

related:

equity mutual funds have been experiencing outflows for several weeks

while bond mutual funds are experiencing inflows

http://ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_08_18_10

Washington, DC, August 18, 2010 - Total estimated inflows to long-term mutual funds were $5.96 billion for the week ended Wednesday, August 11, the Investment Company Institute reported today. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.

Equity funds had estimated outflows of $1.43 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $2.20 billion in the previous week. Domestic equity funds had estimated outflows of $2.07 billion, while estimated inflows to foreign equity funds were $646 million.

Hybrid funds, which can invest in stocks and fixed income securities, had estimated inflows of $213 million for the week, compared to estimated inflows of $233 million in the previous week.

Bond funds had estimated inflows of $7.17 billion, compared to estimated inflows of $7.55 billion during the previous week. Taxable bond funds saw estimated inflows of $5.79 billion, while municipal bond funds had estimated inflows of $1.38 billion.

for those who want historical data:
http://ici.org/pdf/flows_data_2010.pdf