World economy talk

[boybi]

for the past many months, some importers have been bringing in cheap flour from Turkey

i think that's about to end

Turkey gets wheat from Russia

Russia has banned wheat exports

eventually, Turkey will run out of wheat to mill and will cancel export contracts

Now the prices for the remaining Turkish flour in the local market is increasing every week.

[tidus1203]

Ayos pala kung sa Japan!!!!

Ibig sabihin malaki magpasahod ang Japan kaysa Europe.

Sana sa Japan nalang ako.....

No I am not sure kung mas malaki sila magpasahod. What I do know is the Japanese Yen is a very strong currency and will remain to be very strong for many many years thus giving Yen holders an advantage when they remit back to their home countries...

Thing is given Japan's deflationary economy, you would be very lucky to get a job there!

[Monseratto]

Now the prices for the remaining Turkish flour in the local market is increasing every week.

Lalong liliit yung pandesal...

[tidus1203]

Oh well back to rice then, prices are still more or less same...

[uls]

Now the prices for the remaining Turkish flour in the local market is increasing every week.

i see

the importers are expecting higher prices

that is if Turkey will still export flour

[Monseratto]

Oh well back to rice then, prices are still more or less same...

It's only because of Philippine's importation na tumaas yung world prices on rice. Now that rice is "raining", no demand for the staple.

[tidus1203]

Friday the 13th today, and looks like we might have a milder opening again... There are a lot of economic data today, mga 10AM or just before the market opens consumer sentiment reading...

[boybi]

i see

the importers are expecting higher prices

that is if Turkey will still export flour

Local flour have started to raise their prices.

I've talked to one of the Turkish flour suppliers in WOFEX last week, there was no mention that there would be a stoppage to their flour export, although I didn't ask about it.

[uls]

boybi:

Local flour have started to raise their prices.

I've talked to one of the Turkish flour suppliers in WOFEX last week, there was no mention that there would be a stoppage to their flour export, although I didn't ask about it.

i was starting to wonder when local prices will be affected

i've been posting about wheat for quite some time

so eto na

it's kinda premature for me to say Turkey will ban flour exports due to Russia's ban on wheat exports

but the connection is there

let's see how that will play out

if Turkey starts running out of wheat, they will have to look for another source

maybe US wheat

[boybi]

I have read somewhere that US and Australia will increase their wheat export volume.

[uls]

they definitely will

their farmers would want to benefit from of high wheat prices

[uls]

EUR/USD

[Monseratto]

Cheap money withdrawal syndrome...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-a-s...&asset=&ccode=

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve has little power left to lift the economy out of its rut. Congress, with an election looming, has no appetite for more stimulus. Shoppers are reluctant to spend, and businesses are slow to hire.

Let's face it: There is no easy or imminent fix for the flagging recovery.

The sluggish economic summer wore on Friday with news that Americans spent less at most retail stores in July. Earlier this month came word that the trade deficit is ballooning and companies are not adding jobs fast enough to bring down unemployment.

Typically, the Fed can lower interest rates to encourage Americans to borrow money and spend it, invigorating the economy. But the benchmark interest rate controlled by the Fed has been almost zero for more than a year now.

The Fed this week took a new step by announcing it would use the proceeds from its huge portfolio of mortgage securities to buy government debt. The idea is to make cheap credit a little cheaper, particularly for things like mortgages.

The problem there: Americans who are worried about their jobs, not to mention volatility in the stock market, don't want to borrow. They saved 6.2 percent of their disposable income this spring. Before the recession, it was more like 1.2 percent.

"You can't force people to take out a loan or spend money that they don't want to spend," says Alice Rivlin, who served as the Fed's No. 2 official in the late 1990s.

A scholar of the Great Depression, Fed chief Ben Bernanke has warned Washington policymakers not to repeat mistakes made during the Great Depression by pulling in government stimulus too quickly.

Bernanke also suggested recently that extending the Bush tax cuts, at least for a while, would be "one way" to "maintain a reasonable degree of fiscal support -- stimulus -- for the economy."

But Democrats and Republicans are divided on what to do. Most Republicans want to make permanent the tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush in 2001 and 2003. That would amount to nearly $3 trillion over the next decade. Democratic leaders want the cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire.

That leaves the work of jump-starting the economy for the time being to everyday Americans and businesses, who can spend money and accelerate the cycle of growth. But both are in a frugal mood.

[uls]

the Fed wants to encourage lending by increasing money supply

it's like a storekeeper trying to increase sales by increasing inventory

the storekeeper has 100 cans of softdrinks in his see-thru ref

but he only sells 50 cans per day max

he has an idea to increase sales --- he buys another ref!

he thinks having 200 cans of softdrinks in 2 refs will increase sales

the Fed has monetized over a trillion dollars of securities

but the commercial banks hoarded the money they got from selling securities to the Fed

so now the Fed's solution is to monetize more securities

guess where that money is going

the problem is not supply

it's demand

even if the storekeeper has 200 cans of softdrinks in 2 refs, the demand per day is still 50 max

the banks already have huge amounts of reserves

increasing reserves will not increase lending

coz there's low demand for loans

the Fed is pushing on a string

[Monseratto]

it's demand

even if the storekeeper has 200 cans of softdrinks in 2 refs, the demand per day is still 50 max

THere's even less demand now because 1/2 the customers had too much sugar and are now diabetic...

[uls]

US consumers have cut back borrowing and spending

the fiat currency fractional reserve lending ponzi system is perpetuated by ever-increasing debt creation

you need to keep creating new debt to pay back old debt

if new debt isnt created, previous debt doesnt get paid

and the whole ponzi scheme gets f*cked up (like what happened in 2008)

consumers arent borrowing and spending, so somebody has to fill the vacuum

that's the US GOVERNMENT

the USG has to do the borrowing and spending in place of the consumers

but apparently, the USG isnt borrowing and spending enough

coz the US economy is still in a coma

here's the problem -- the USG already has huge deficit

there's a powerful political camp against more govt spending

if the USG doesnt increase spending, and the private sector doesnt step in, the US economy is basically screwed

[tidus1203]

They relied to much on internal consumption... While China relied too much on external demand... Looks like a new world order has to happen. A rebalancing of the economies. The US needs to export more and China needs to consume more...

[tidus1203]

JAPAN ECONOMY... FAIL!

The quarterly expansion of 0.1 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) translates into an annualised growth of 0.4 percent, well below the median market forecast of 2.3 percent annualised growth and much less than the 2.4 percent annualised growth in the United States in the same quarter.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38717422

Wow! They expected an annualized growth of 2.3% and they only got 0.4%. That is a big big disappointment.

Nikkei 225 down 1% and the USD/JPY down 0.5%

[uls]

Japan's unemployment rate went up

automobile production slipped

electronics slipped

sila naman too dependent on exports

someone has to absorb their exports (China, US, EU)

but China is trying to cool down its economy, US and EU economies slowing down

good luck Japan

[tidus1203]

Grabe talaga effects ng massive bubble. That's why China is so smart not to let a bubble happen. Imagine mo 1989 pa yan hanggang ngayon Japan's economy has been on a coma. Tapos delation pa na hindi matangal-tangal...