World economy talk

[tidus1203]

I am going to take a calculated risky trade again, this time I am buying OIL... I am buying the January 2011 contracts... I feel medyo mababa na sya given its historical price movement... It might go even lower pero I doubt it will breach those supports...

[uls]

NYT reports on the ici.org data i posted last week

In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/bu...t.html?_r=1&hp

Renewed economic uncertainty is testing Americans’ generation-long love affair with the stock market.

Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.

If that pace continues, more money will be pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked.

[uls]

USD/JPY

[tidus1203]

HOLY $**T!!!!

USD/JPY has breached a 15 year low... Paktay na! MUkang mag cut loss muna ako sa oil bet ko for now habang maliit pa lang talo mukang malaki laking bagsak pa ang mangyayari sa markets...

[niky]

HOLY $**T!!!!

USD/JPY has breached a 15 year low... Paktay na! MUkang mag cut loss muna ako sa oil bet ko for now habang maliit pa lang talo mukang malaki laking bagsak pa ang mangyayari sa markets...

What triggered the dollar drop?

[tidus1203]

No more like YEN STRENGTH niky...

The USD is up against everything except the Yen...

The Yen is the so-called carry currency, in state of fear people will buy it up...

[uls]

yep more on yen strength

JPY right now as i type is strongest

followed by USD

US treasuries are green

everything else is red

oil, gold, other major currencies

[tidus1203]

So when there is fear you should be bullish on the Yen... I don't care if Japan's GDP is negative or I don't care if Japan has rising unemployment... All of that is mute as far as the JPY is concerned. Its value is dictated externally...

For maximum effect and as Google like to say "I am feeling lucky" short the GBP/JPY!

[tidus1203]

Existing home sales drop to a 15 year low...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Existi...&asset=&ccode=

Double dip seems likely now... Housing market is in trouble again...

[uls]

forget QE1.5 or QE lite

due to recent economic data, market is now betting on QE2 or full blast QE

USD selloff



and gold goes vertical

[tidus1203]

Yeah the Yen was already strong the whole day against the USD. Now the EUR in the last hour has also turned green... And the Swiss Franc is also killing the USD. Its good to know the Swiss is regaining their safe haven status currency. Di ko na kasi alam ano gagawin ko sa Swissy ko given its more limited investment options compared to the USD, EUR and JPY...

[compact]

tidus, babagsak pa kaya lower than 45 ang USD? or waiting mode lang ako muna at may pag asa pang tumaas?

[uls]

EUR/CHF

[boybi]

Oil at USD71.63 nalang!

[tidus1203]

tidus, babagsak pa kaya lower than 45 ang USD? or waiting mode lang ako muna at may pag asa pang tumaas?

No idea mate kasi di nga ako masyado tumtutok sa 3rd world currencies mga majors lang nilalaro ko. Pero sa tingin ko baga humina nga peso temporarily because of the hostage crisis... Pero temporary lang yan, the PHP might remain strong against the USD in the near future...

[tidus1203]

EUR/CHF

I heard laki ng lugi ng SNB just for interfering in the EUR/CHF pair. Esentially they are trying to buy EUR and selling CHF to limit the CHF's gains kasi nasasaktan na din mga industrya nila...

[uls]

yep

the SNB bought massive amount of euros

now the SNB is holding quite a bit of euros

if they try selling the euros, the euro will fall

maybe that's what the SNB has been doing

[tidus1203]

Back to the US consumers, which of course as we know is the biggest engine of consumption in the world...

NEW YORK (AP) -- The amount consumers owed on their credit cards in this year's second quarter dropped to the lowest level in more than eight years as cardholders continued to pay off balances in the uncertain economy.
The average combined debt for bank-issued credit cards -- like those with a MasterCard or Visa logo -- fell to $4,951 in the three months ended June 30, down more than 13 percent from $5,719 in the same period a year ago, according to TransUnion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Credit...&asset=&ccode=


So now they are de-leveraging as we speak. Pero grabe din pala mga American consumers on average they owe $4951 on credit cards. That's like P225K...

[tidus1203]

More data to support double dip...

(Reuters) - New U.S. single-family home sales slumped to the slowest pace on record in July and orders for costly durable goods were weak, according to government reports on Wednesday that heightened fears the economy was at risk of a new downturn.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67N3B320100825

All of this is just the result of the MOTHER OF ALL ECONOMIC DATA. Unemployment report due every 1st Friday of every month which I always wait in anticipation...

[uls]