Is WWIII inevitable?

[Flipo]

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war? | Inquirer Opinion

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war?
By: Shlomo Ben Ami - *inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:04 AM October 27, 2022

Tel Aviv—Some argue that the 1962 Cuban missile crisis (which unfolded 60 years ago this week) holds lessons for those attempting to prevent the war in Ukraine from escalating into a nuclear catastrophe. But that Cold War superpower standoff is not the best place to look. Better insights may be gained from another nuclear-age precedent: the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

While Ukrainians are the ones fighting the Russian invaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that he launched the war to redress an unacceptable strategic imbalance with Nato, although his real motivation was probably his long-held belief that Ukraine is not an independent country. Likewise, the Yom Kippur War was waged by a coalition of Arab states, led by Egypt and Syria, in order to redress a power imbalance with Israel, a country which they also thought illegitimate. (Egypt and Syria both sought to recover territory that Israel had seized in the Six-Day War of 1967.)

The similarities do not end there. Like the Ukraine war, the Yom Kippur War triggered a global oil shock, with Arab oil producers declaring an export embargo that caused prices to quadruple. It also spurred a surge in inflation, followed by a wave of monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the United States and the Soviet Union delivered supplies to their respective allies.

In 1973, a clear battlefield victory was not forthcoming. That suited US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who dreaded an all-out Israeli triumph as much as an Israeli defeat. He confided to the Soviet ambassador to the US, Anatoly Dobrynin, that a victory for either side would be a “nightmare.”

For Kissinger, the stalemate represented an opportunity for peace, and after a few weeks of fighting, a ceasefire was negotiated, preventing a regional conflict from becoming a global calamity. During the fighting, the Soviet Union had put its missile forces and nuclear bombers on high alert, and Israel reportedly considered deploying nuclear weapons after the Arab surprise attack. By thwarting a clear-cut Israeli victory, Kissinger defused the threat of a nuclear showdown.

Moreover, by brokering peace agreements between Israel and two Arab client states of the Soviet Union, Kissinger hastened the decline of Soviet influence in the Middle East. Where the Soviet Union could offer only futile war, the US was delivering peace.

This is where the two stories diverge. In Ukraine today, one wonders whether a diplomatic endgame is being contemplated at all by either side. US President Joe Biden, who early in the war expressed concern that Putin had no exit strategy, appears to have no plan for managing any scenario that does not include military defeat for Russia.

But such a defeat may not be possible—or even desirable. Yes, Russia continues to suffer major setbacks on the battlefield. But if Putin’s back is against a wall, his usual instinct is to escalate his way out. That much was clear when he annexed four Ukrainian oblasts over which Russia’s military has only partial (and waning) control, and issued fresh nuclear threats. Though Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship may be a ploy, the US does not seem to be dismissing the risk out of hand. Biden himself has warned of “Armageddon” if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Nuclear escalation is not the only risk. Unlike democracies, dictatorships can be toppled by military defeat. Of course, the most likely prospect is that another strongman emerges, blames Putin for “losing Ukraine,” and then works to rebuild Russian military power. But some analysts fear that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could destabilize, and even destroy, the entire Russian Federation, with devastating consequences.

The Russian Federation comprises almost 200 ethnic groups, 21 national republics, and several autonomous regions, which are often in conflict with one another and the central government. If Russia’s government crumbles, this multiethnic empire could fragment. In this nightmare scenario, the entire Eurasian space would become a strategic void, with resource-hungry China and others competing for control and influence.

In 2014, when Russia was moving to annex Crimea, Kissinger wrote that the “test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.” Leaders on all sides should therefore “return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing.” For the West, this process must begin with a recognition that Ukraine can never be “just a foreign country” to Russia. For Russia, it must begin with a recognition that Ukraine is a fully sovereign state whose borders and territory are sacrosanct.

As the conflict grinds on, causing untold devastation, the West must embrace the diplomatic wisdom that enabled Kissinger to help prevent a catastrophe in 1973. At the very least, it needs to start exploring what leverage is available to deliver peace. For example, China’s now-fragile economy implies that Chinese leaders have a strong interest in persuading Putin that the two countries’ “friendship without limits” requires Russia to respect some hard truths.
Project Syndicate
——————
Shlomo Ben-Ami is a former Israeli foreign minister. He is vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace and the author of “Prophets Without Honor: The 2000 Camp David Summit and the End of the Two-State Solution” (Oxford University Press, 2022).

[uls]

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war? | Inquirer Opinion

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war?
By: Shlomo Ben Ami - *inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:04 AM October 27, 2022

The Russian Federation comprises almost 200 ethnic groups, 21 national republics, and several autonomous regions, which are often in conflict with one another and the central government. If Russia’s government crumbles, this multiethnic empire could fragment. In this nightmare scenario, the entire Eurasian space would become a strategic void, with resource-hungry China and others competing for control and influence.

Putin Orders "Partial" Mobilization - War in Ukraine

the goal of the US is to drive russia out of ukraine

it's not only for ukraine but for the credibility and standing of the US on the world stage

the US is trying to preserve its #1 position in the world where everyone respects and fears them

if russia is allowed to annex those eastern parts of ukraine, the US will lose credibility

that's why walang peace talks -- hindi pwede sa US ang compromise -- kailangan mapalayas ang russia period

ang russia naman pag nabawi ng ukraine ang mga eastern territories... lalo pag nabawi pati crimea... putin is done... russia is done

putin will be deposed (or worse) and russia could be broken up

so para kay putin he can't lose this war (para sa kanya this war has become fight for his and russia's survival)

para sa US this war is about maintaining fear and respect (pag nagtagumpay ang russia sa pagsakop sa territoryo ng ukraine mawawalan ng takot at respeto ang buong mundo sa US)

[uls]

russia could be broken up

Ano basis nito? They are a proud nation and hindi naman diverse yan politically. They may not win the war pero labo naman na madivide pa yan. Mas malaki pa chance na tumibay sila and transform into a better nation but still a Russian nation. Layo naman ng Russia as a country vis a vis USSR.

after russia is driven out of ukraine putin won't survive politically

he'll be deposed (or worse than that)

magkakaroon ng power vacuum sa russia and factions inside russia will be fighting for the throne

that's one thing

another thing is the US and China will see a weakened russia and will want russia's natural resources

the US will install a puppet pero di papayag ang china

so the US and china will go to war

Gawa ka na fictional story na ito ala Tom Clancy ops, kikita ito.

[dr. d]

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war? | Inquirer Opinion



[/I]

only if they can show that each side got what it wanted,
even if only on paper.

[uls]

sa ngayon, if you advocate negotiation to end the war, you will be labeled pro-putin

[kisshmet]

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war? | Inquirer Opinion

Can diplomacy end the Ukraine war?
By: Shlomo Ben Ami - *inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:04 AM October 27, 2022

Tel Aviv—Some argue that the 1962 Cuban missile crisis (which unfolded 60 years ago this week) holds lessons for those attempting to prevent the war in Ukraine from escalating into a nuclear catastrophe. But that Cold War superpower standoff is not the best place to look. Better insights may be gained from another nuclear-age precedent: the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

While Ukrainians are the ones fighting the Russian invaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that he launched the war to redress an unacceptable strategic imbalance with Nato, although his real motivation was probably his long-held belief that Ukraine is not an independent country. Likewise, the Yom Kippur War was waged by a coalition of Arab states, led by Egypt and Syria, in order to redress a power imbalance with Israel, a country which they also thought illegitimate. (Egypt and Syria both sought to recover territory that Israel had seized in the Six-Day War of 1967.)

The similarities do not end there. Like the Ukraine war, the Yom Kippur War triggered a global oil shock, with Arab oil producers declaring an export embargo that caused prices to quadruple. It also spurred a surge in inflation, followed by a wave of monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the United States and the Soviet Union delivered supplies to their respective allies.

In 1973, a clear battlefield victory was not forthcoming. That suited US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who dreaded an all-out Israeli triumph as much as an Israeli defeat. He confided to the Soviet ambassador to the US, Anatoly Dobrynin, that a victory for either side would be a “nightmare.”

For Kissinger, the stalemate represented an opportunity for peace, and after a few weeks of fighting, a ceasefire was negotiated, preventing a regional conflict from becoming a global calamity. During the fighting, the Soviet Union had put its missile forces and nuclear bombers on high alert, and Israel reportedly considered deploying nuclear weapons after the Arab surprise attack. By thwarting a clear-cut Israeli victory, Kissinger defused the threat of a nuclear showdown.

Moreover, by brokering peace agreements between Israel and two Arab client states of the Soviet Union, Kissinger hastened the decline of Soviet influence in the Middle East. Where the Soviet Union could offer only futile war, the US was delivering peace.

This is where the two stories diverge. In Ukraine today, one wonders whether a diplomatic endgame is being contemplated at all by either side. US President Joe Biden, who early in the war expressed concern that Putin had no exit strategy, appears to have no plan for managing any scenario that does not include military defeat for Russia.

But such a defeat may not be possible—or even desirable. Yes, Russia continues to suffer major setbacks on the battlefield. But if Putin’s back is against a wall, his usual instinct is to escalate his way out. That much was clear when he annexed four Ukrainian oblasts over which Russia’s military has only partial (and waning) control, and issued fresh nuclear threats. Though Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship may be a ploy, the US does not seem to be dismissing the risk out of hand. Biden himself has warned of “Armageddon” if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Nuclear escalation is not the only risk. Unlike democracies, dictatorships can be toppled by military defeat. Of course, the most likely prospect is that another strongman emerges, blames Putin for “losing Ukraine,” and then works to rebuild Russian military power. But some analysts fear that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could destabilize, and even destroy, the entire Russian Federation, with devastating consequences.

The Russian Federation comprises almost 200 ethnic groups, 21 national republics, and several autonomous regions, which are often in conflict with one another and the central government. If Russia’s government crumbles, this multiethnic empire could fragment. In this nightmare scenario, the entire Eurasian space would become a strategic void, with resource-hungry China and others competing for control and influence.

In 2014, when Russia was moving to annex Crimea, Kissinger wrote that the “test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.” Leaders on all sides should therefore “return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing.” For the West, this process must begin with a recognition that Ukraine can never be “just a foreign country” to Russia. For Russia, it must begin with a recognition that Ukraine is a fully sovereign state whose borders and territory are sacrosanct.

As the conflict grinds on, causing untold devastation, the West must embrace the diplomatic wisdom that enabled Kissinger to help prevent a catastrophe in 1973. At the very least, it needs to start exploring what leverage is available to deliver peace. For example, China’s now-fragile economy implies that Chinese leaders have a strong interest in persuading Putin that the two countries’ “friendship without limits” requires Russia to respect some hard truths.
Project Syndicate
——————
Shlomo Ben-Ami is a former Israeli foreign minister. He is vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace and the author of “Prophets Without Honor: The 2000 Camp David Summit and the End of the Two-State Solution” (Oxford University Press, 2022).

if we want to preserve humanity..pray hard that it be resolved diplomatically

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[dr. d]

if we want to preserve humanity..pray hard that it be resolved diplomatically

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if there is an increase in the incidence of ufo sightings recently,

it is probably because they want a ringside seat and see firsthand, how a race destroys itself.

yikes.

[Ry_Tower]

Conspiracy theory abounds.

Sa dami kasi baka tamaan yung isa bida na din.

Kaya okay yan, daming theories from time to time.

In the end, the script is not written. Iba na mundo when dictators get deposed.

Malay mo democreatic country kalabasan ng Russia at hindi na communist.

Malay mo mag-ceasefire nga. Malay mo maging WW3 nga. Malay mo patay na pala si Putin.

Malay ko.

Basta sure ako incompetent ni Russia sa ginawa nila. They won't win in any way whatsoever. Sariling mga citizens mo nga buraot na sa iyo. Good luck sa kanila. Yan sure ako.

[uls]

ang sinasabi ko lang...

doon sa article posted by flipo kanina...

the writer said pwede mag break up ang russia at pag agawan ang resources niya

from the article:

Nuclear escalation is not the only risk. Unlike democracies, dictatorships can be toppled by military defeat. Of course, the most likely prospect is that another strongman emerges, blames Putin for “losing Ukraine,” and then works to rebuild Russian military power. But some analysts fear that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could destabilize, and even destroy, the entire Russian Federation, with devastating consequences.

The Russian Federation comprises almost 200 ethnic groups, 21 national republics, and several autonomous regions, which are often in conflict with one another and the central government. If Russia’s government crumbles, this multiethnic empire could fragment. In this nightmare scenario, the entire Eurasian space would become a strategic void, with resource-hungry China and others competing for control and influence.

something similar to what i posted 3 weeks ago

and that's not what a conspiracy theory is

it's called a scenario

nag i-imagine lang po ng pwede mangyari

[Ry_Tower]

Cuban missile crisis is still the closest we ever came to WW3.

Wala nga nangyari nu, eh mas hardocre pa away nun at mas may bayag naman mga leaders ng USSR nun. Eh itong si Putin softy na yan, capitalist communist na eh. Pera pera na yan at mga buddies niya. Ego na lang gumagana dyan, hindi na malalim na ideology.

Kaya incompetent talaga si Rusky. Ang lakas ng boret. Parang intelligence fund lang din sa Pinas, sa iba ata napunta budget ng intelligence nila.

Tapusin na nila kung gusto talaga nila. Mukhang ayaw din talaga.

[uls]

so anong point mo?

di naman ww3 scenario ang pinag uusapan natin ngayon

may nag presenta ng scenario na natalo ang russia

napalayas ang russia from ukraine

pati crimea nabalik sa ukraine

isn't that in line with your view na mahina ang russia?

panalo ang US/NATO

that's the scenario -- US/NATO victorious

so ano mangyayari sa russia in that scenario

sigurado tanggal si putin

he cannot politically survive a failure like that

russia could descend into chaos

[uls]

so in a scenario where russia is weakened, more powerful countries would want russia's resources

is a scenario like that implausible?

[kisshmet]

^the west want to get russian gas for free then resell it to the world

PERA PERA lang talaga..tubong lugaw

putin prevented that from happening..so whos incompetent now?

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[Athrunzala]

^the west want to get russian gas for free then resell it to the world

PERA PERA lang talaga..tubong lugaw

putin prevented that from happening..so whos incompetent now?

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parang katulad yan ng sa Syria, ginagatasan nila ang Syrian oil fields for free

[kisshmet]

^communist pa nga tigin ng ibang tsikoteer sa russia..tagal ng bumagsak ang USSR..communist pa din hangang ngayon

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[Yatta]

^communist pa nga tigin ng ibang tsikoteer sa russia..tagal ng bumagsak ang USSR..communist pa din hangang ngayon

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Its a kleptocracy ruled by a dictator pining for the old days of Russian imperial and soviet hegemony. Just like China pining for its lost imperial glories.

[boybi]

Its a kleptocracy ruled by a dictator pining for the old days of Russian imperial and soviet hegemony. Just like China pining for its lost imperial glories.

A glory ravaged by western colonialism.

[kisshmet]

Its a kleptocracy ruled by a dictator pining for the old days of Russian imperial and soviet hegemony. Just like China pining for its lost imperial glories.

so as far as you are concerned now they (russians) are no longer communist and former WARSAW PACT members never became NATO members

also for you ukraine is free to join NATO while the breakaway eastern provinces of ukraine are NOT free to join russia

if there are any kleptocrats here, are the politicians in washington dc stealing syrian oil and dictating or imposing OIL PRICE CAP for russian oil. western politicians cant PILFER russian oil thru regime change the BUYER will now set the PRICE of the commodity, not the MARKET FORCES in play with trading

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[tsupermario]

[Yatta]

Anton Krasovsky, the chief of Russian-language broadcasting for the channel formerly called Russia Today, said Ukrainian children who said they were being occupied by Russia should be “thrown in a river with a strong undercurrent”.

“They should have been drowned in the Tysyna [river],” said Krasovsky during an interview with the fantasy writer Sergei Lukyanenko. “Just drown these children. Drown them.”

Russian TV presenter accused of inciting genocide in Ukraine | Russia | The Guardian