Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[chua_riwap]

Good news lang..........P15.00-P40/kilo ang Bangus sa Pangasinan.

Nagkalat ang bangus. Apaw ang fishponds.

[valvura]

ALPA near Mindanao threatens to become cyclone
10/13/2009 | 07:48 AM
A weather disturbance near Mindanao that has intensified into an active low-pressure area (ALPA) is threatening to turn into another tropical cyclone.

Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) forecaster Elvie Enriquez said there is a chance the ALPA would intensify.

In an interview on dzBB, she said the weather disturbance will be named “Ramil" should it develop into a cyclone, the 18th to enter Philippine territory this year.

Earlier, Pagasa had said up to six more cyclones are due to enter Philippine territory before yearend.

Cyclones “Ondoy" (Ketsana) and “Pepeng" (Parma) had devastated parts of the country since September 26, while “Quedan" (Melor) caused “Pepeng" to stay in northern Luzon for a week of rampage.

Radio dzBB reported that as of 5 a.m., the ALPA was estimated at 560 km east of Northern Mindanao.

“Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening," Pagasa said in its 5 a.m. bulletin. - GMANews.TV

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/174466/a...become-cyclone
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/sat_images/satpic.jpg
Based from the satellite feed yesterday, anybody can make forecast similar to above because of the wide & thick clouds formation. It may not even look as 'east' of northern Mindanao but 'east' of Visayas.

[baludoy]

bros, do you think this is relatively accurate: http://www.weather-forecast.com/loca...recasts/latest?

i've been invited to trek up a mountain on the weekend and i'm a bit concerned about the weather.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Based from the satellite feed yesterday, anybody can make forecast similar to above because of the wide & thick clouds formation. It may not even look as 'east' of northern Mindanao but 'east' of Visayas.

Not really.
1. All weather satellite images are after the fact.
2. With satellite images, you're merely seeing the tops of the clouds. There's no way to judge the depth of clouds or what's underneath.
3. Satellite images don't take into account the dynamics of a tropical system or any system.

There's an awful lot of work required to forecast a tropical system.

Considering how relatively low-paid weather forecasters are in the Philippines for the amount of work they do (and stress/BS they have to put up with), I'm not surprised if the attrition rate is high.

I do know weather forecasters from the Philippines have been contracted by the US Armed Forces for tropical regions.

[roberto_minosa]

Maybe we should outsource weather guys...lol!

[Jun aka Pekto]

Maybe we should outsource weather guys...lol!

Here a GS-12 Hydrologist/Meteorologist for the Department of Agriculture starts at $73k a year with a potential cap of $113k per year.

[roberto_minosa]

Are they...Pinoys? That's at least $7k a month! Even lower executive-types here barely earn that much.

Too bad every Pinoy who's good at something works somewhere else. Now raising budget for weather guys suddenly makes sense.

[Jun aka Pekto]

Are they...Pinoys? That's at least $7k a month! Even lower executive-types here barely earn that much.

Too bad every Pinoy who's good at something works somewhere else. Now raising budget for weather guys suddenly makes sense.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are (US citizen) Pinoy meteorologists with NOAA. I've contemplated it myself. But, I like the private sector which has a much smaller focus (meaning: less stress) for me.

Plus working under contract for the US Government/DoD has perks of its own. For example, my wife's nephew in the Philippines was hired by the US Army to work as a teacher in base high schools here. Technically, he really isn't supposed to immigrate. But, the army whistled and looked the other way. He was allowed to file immigration paperwork. With the army's blessings, he's virtually guaranteed to be approved and at an accelerated pace.

But yup. People should give the PAGASA folks more respect. They're doing their best limited in equipment (and salaries) as they are.

[redorange]

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2209.gif

22W on the way and it's only going to get stronger. The winds this morning was strong already from the north of the island. Looks to be on the way to Northern Luzon again which is not going to be good at all.


*Jun--Where did you get $73K for a GS12? The pay scale shows $59383 to $77194 for GS-12-step 10. If it includes locality it can easily pass that amount.

Funny how people see the amount and think wow $7K a month and forget that you have two taxes(fed/state), social security, and insurance deductions subtracted from that amount.


http://opm.gov/oca/09tables/html/gs.asp

[redorange]

Double post

[Jun aka Pekto]

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp2209.gif

22W on the way and it's only going to get stronger. The winds this morning was strong already from the north of the island. Looks to be on the way to Northern Luzon again which is not going to be good at all.


*Jun--Where did you get $73K for a GS12? The pay scale shows $59383 to $77194 for GS-12-step 10. If it includes locality it can easily pass that amount.

Funny how people see the amount and think wow $7K a month and forget that you have two taxes(fed/state), social security, and insurance deductions subtracted from that amount.


http://opm.gov/oca/09tables/html/gs.asp

I think Maryland..... That one is a dual-discipline position (meteorologist/hydrologist)

There's one spot at Norman, Oklahoma for $95k which looks more like an instructional department for FAA employees. Oooh. Will Rogers Airport. That was a familiar place when I used to live there.

Otherwise, the remaining vacancies are in six-figures, meaning they're directors who are probably retiring. Those require at least a PhD. Rats. I'm still working on my Master's.

[Monseratto]

Another one approaching. Be prepared...



http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

[Zeus]

Another one approaching. Be prepared...



http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

At palakas ng palakas habang pumapasok sa atin

[emms1121]

Patay na naman kami neto. kailan expected landfall?

[XTO]

Another one approaching. Be prepared...



http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

Based on the current trajectory, North eastern Luzon again Hope it goes up more para ma spare naman buong Luzon.

[Monseratto]

Still far away, so it can deviate from its current track. Expected to enter Philippine Area around Tuesday next week. Expected 185-230 kph wind speed is deeply disturbing.



http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tra...c/200922W.html

[shadow]

I believe most of the better Pagasa weather forecaster already moved to Japan. offered salaries are much much higher that what they are getting here.

[valvura]

2. With satellite images, you're merely seeing the tops of the clouds. There's no way to judge the depth of clouds or what's underneath.

Seems there is, I guess. From Gray (thinness) to Red (thickest).
Try to look at the color coding:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/sat_images/satpic.jpg

[jeDi13]

sabi sa Bandila kagabi, papuntang Japan daw ito and less likely makaka-affect sa Philippines. pero siyempre, 2.5K kms pa ang layo nito, too early to tell. malalaman natin sa weekend.

[Monseratto]

International Code Name "LUPIT"

Low pressure area rushing towards RP
By Alcuin Papa
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 14:01:00 10/15/2009

MANILA, Philippines—(UPDATE) Brace yourselves for another howler.

The tropical depression with international name “Lupit” spotted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) east of the country near the Marianas Island was seen accelerating closer to the country, as of 5 p.m. Thursday.

PAGASA weather forecaster Robert Sawi said the system could enter the country’s area of responsibility by Friday night as a tropical storm or typhoon.

The tropical depression is packing maximum winds of 55 kilometers per hour and has been moving west northwest at 40 kilometers per hour. It was spotted 1,620 kilometers east of the Visayas.

Sawi said the country could feel the effects by Sunday or Monday. The system, he said, has been seen moving slightly to the north. If it maintained its track, the system could make landfall in northern Luzon.

“Let’s hope and pray it misses the country,” Sawi said.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/topstor...ing-towards-RP