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    November 6th, 2013 12:57 AM #7981


    looks like the market is positioning for an earlier-than-March 2014 taper




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    November 7th, 2013 02:28 PM #7982
    NYSE


    TWTR to begin trading tonight
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    November 7th, 2013 08:57 PM #7983
    ECB rate decision later

    a rate cut is needed coz inflation is falling in the eurozone

    the main refi rate is already at 0.50% so they only have 2 bullets left (they cut by 0.25% each time)

    they may want to conserve bullets

    or not
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    November 7th, 2013 10:35 PM #7984
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    November 7th, 2013 10:45 PM #7985
    ECB interest rate now 0.25%

    1 bullet left
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    November 7th, 2013 11:56 PM #7986
    ipo priced at 26

    TWTR is gonna blast off
    Last edited by uls; November 7th, 2013 at 11:58 PM.
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    November 8th, 2013 01:21 AM #7987
    TWTR


    50 resistance

    Last edited by uls; November 8th, 2013 at 01:23 AM.
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    November 8th, 2013 01:26 AM #7988
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    November 8th, 2013 11:19 AM #7989
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    November 8th, 2013 10:24 PM #7990
    US jobs report in a few minutes

    estimate +100K
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    November 8th, 2013 10:32 PM #7991
    +204k!

    ____________________________________________
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    November 8th, 2013 10:56 PM #7992
    market reaction:

    gold


    usdjpy


    10y note future


    30y bond future
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    November 11th, 2013 12:15 PM #7993


    as i said

    Quote Originally Posted by uls View Post
    when the US 10 yr yield rises it makes other dollar denominated bond yields rise and prices fall (yield and price moves in opposite direction)

    so how does it affect us? rising US 10 yr yield drives up emerging market bond yields (like Phil. govt $ bonds, corporate $ bonds)

    -----

    US 10 yr yield minus US inflation rate = real rate

    when the real rate is positive it makes holding dollars more attractive

    so funds that left the US to seek higher yield in emerging markets will return to the US

    EM currencies will fall against the dollar
    USD to PHP Exchange Rate - Bloomberg
    As of 22:10:32 ET on 11/11/2013.
    USD-PHP 43.3950 Price of 1 USD in PHP 0.2020 0.47%
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    November 12th, 2013 12:24 PM #7994
    dollar strength is driving money out of emerging markets

    so where does the money go?

    answer this question --- who gains from a stronger dollar?

    first that comes to mind is Japan

    a weaker yen is good for Japan





    i think the market is still underweight Japan equities and overweight EM stocks

    that should be changing by now

    we should see outflows from EM and inflows into Japan
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    November 14th, 2013 10:26 AM #7995
    Yellen Says Economy Performing ?Far Short? of Potential - Bloomberg

    Janet Yellen, nominated to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the economy and labor market are performing “far short of their potential” and must improve before the Fed can begin reducing monetary stimulus.
    dollar falls


    gold rises
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    November 14th, 2013 01:16 PM #7996
    Yen Falls on Stock Gains as Slowing Growth Fans BOJ Easing Bets - Bloomberg

    The yen weakened against all 16 major peers as Asian stocks gained and after data showed Japan’s growth slowed in the third quarter, adding to the case for the central bank to boost stimulus.
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    November 15th, 2013 12:05 PM #7997
    hehe

    short yen long nikkei



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    November 15th, 2013 12:11 PM #7998


    NEW YORK - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Thursday as views from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen at her Senate panel hearing on her nomination to head the U.S. central bank were perceived as bond friendly,stoking bids for government debt.

    On the open market, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were 13/32 higher in price with a yield of 2.702 percent, down 5 basis points from late on Wednesday. Thirty-year bonds were up 27/32 after gaining more than 1 point. Their yield fell to 3.779 percent, down 5 basis points from Wednesday's close.
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    November 18th, 2013 12:12 PM #7999
    again

    short yen



    long nikkei

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    November 19th, 2013 12:16 PM #8000
    USDJPY can't hold above 100



    too many sellers
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