World economy talk

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look who's back

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usdjpy 103

[tidus1203]

usdjpy 103

There will be a lot of fight in that 103 level cause that was the previous high during the Abenomics regime... Pero eventually the JPY will fall. Target ko dyan 107 when all is said and done...

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Anyway since I was last here the world has changed quite a lot. Japan is now printing faster than the US. Europe is still in the stinkhole. The UK is improving. The US? Well still printing money and now with Janet Yellen at the helm of the Fed next year the money printing circus continues...

the flood of central bank liquidity is driving up asset prices --- from real estate to art

tons of money looking for places to park

Cash floods into property as investors seek alternative or safety | Financial Post

LONDON — Five years after the global financial crisis was sparked by a burst U.S. housing market bubble, real estate is booming again and even considered a safe-haven investment.

With many equity markets at record highs, government bonds offering scant returns and emerging markets looking fragile, investors are flocking to residential and commercial property.

Property offers relatively high returns, making it an attractive alternative to stocks and bonds.

Institutions managing commercial real estate portfolios in Britain and around Europe expect yields of between 6 and 10%, compared with a 10-year British gilt yield of 2.65% or just 1.7% for the equivalent German bond.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/13/ar...2-million.html

It took seven superrich bidders to propel a 1969 Francis Bacon triptych to $142.4 million at Christie’s on Tuesday night, making it the most expensive work of art ever sold at auction. William Acquavella, the New York dealer, is thought to have bought the painting on behalf of an unidentified client, from one of Christie’s skyboxes overlooking the auction.

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US 10Y yield

[Ry_Tower]

Miss me? bwahaha!!!

Anyway since I was last here the world has changed quite a lot. Japan is now printing faster than the US. Europe is still in the stinkhole. The UK is improving. The US? Well still printing money and now with Janet Yellen at the helm of the Fed next year the money printing circus continues...

What's with the hiatus?

Also Germany is the only good thing out of EU's mess.

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the eurozone is on the brink of deflation

money isn't being created

it's actually being destroyed



Euro zone loans contraction increases pressure on ECB | Reuters

(Reuters) - A contraction in loans to households and companies in the euro zone quickened in October, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to do more to buoy the euro zone's weak recovery.

The ECB cut its main refinancing rate earlier this month to 0.25 percent, but the euro zone central bank's record low interest rates are not feeding through evenly to the real economy in all corners of the currency bloc.

ECB data released on Thursday showed loans to the private sector shrank by 2.1 percent in October from the same month a year ago, equaling the biggest fall on record. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a contraction of 1.8 percent.

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eurjpy 140

[Monseratto]

Cyber Monday beats Black Friday...

Cyber Monday Sales Hit Record as Amazon to EBay Win Shoppers - Bloomberg

Cyber Monday Sales Hit Record as Amazon to EBay Win Shoppers
By Danielle Kucera - Dec 3, 2013 7:13 PM GMT+0800

Cyber Monday sales surged, sending online shopping toward a single-day record as Amazon.com Inc. and EBay Inc. siphoned consumers from brick-and-mortar stores.

Online sales rose 19 percent from 2012 as of 9 p.m. in New York yesterday, International Business Machines Corp. said in an e-mailed statement. Retailers catering to smartphone and tablet users benefited the most, with mobile traffic accounting for 30 percent of the total site visits, an increase of more than 58 percent from last year, IBM said.

The results deliver another blow to physical stores, which just suffered the first spending decline on a Black Friday weekend since 2009. Web sales this holiday season are projected to climb as much as 15 percent to $82 billion, more than three times faster than total retail growth of 3.9 percent to $602.1 billion, the National Retail Federation said. Mobile devices drove 16 percent of online purchases, IBM said.

“The results thus far from an e-commerce perspective have been very strong -- certainly strong relative to brick-and-mortar stores,” Ron Josey, an analyst at JMP Securities Inc. in New York, said in an interview. “This is the first holiday season where mobile is absolutely having its mark on overall retail sales, whether that’s from a smartphone or a tablet. It’s not going away.”

Amazon rose 0.1 percent to the equivalent of $392.65 in German trading as of 12:03 p.m. in Frankfurt, while EBay gained 0.4 percent to the equivalent of $51.55.

“Cyber Monday has been the single biggest shopping day of the year for U.S. retailers for a number of years now,” said Sucharita Mulpuru, an analyst at Forrester. “The big story is that stores continue to lose share and web retailers continue to gain share.”

Shopping on tablets and smartphones increased twice as fast in the third quarter as desktop online spending, according to ComScore. Web users in August spent more time engaging with retailers on mobile devices than on desktops for the first time, the firm said. EBay Inc.’s PayPal unit said in a statement that mobile payment volume more than doubled as of 2 p.m. New York time yesterday compared with a year earlier.

Buying patterns on mobile devices since Thanksgiving have shown that tablets are more popular for purchases, while mobile phones are preferred for browsing. Tablets accounted for 9.8 percent of purchases, compared with 5.7 percent from smartphones, IBM said. Consumers also dished out more cash when buying on tablets, spending an average of $128.30 per order, compared with $110.95 for smartphones, the company said.

“Consumers continue to expect to shop and pay at their convenience during the holiday season,” said Stacy General, a customer experience advocate for PayPal.

Many retailers are also subsidizing shipping over the holidays to compete with Amazon’s discounted two-day service and plans for Sunday delivery, which has couriers projecting higher shipping volumes.

The U.S. Postal Service expects to ship 420 million packages during the 2013 holiday season, an increase of about 12 percent from last year. United Parcel Service Inc. said it expected to pick up 32 million packages on Cyber Monday, an increase of 10 percent.

“Online sales growth continues at a much faster clip than overall retail sales,” said Alan Gershenhorn, UPS’s chief sales and marketing officer. “We experienced some nice results this weekend.”

[tidus1203]

Well why the hell would you go into shopping malls and risk getting trampled while you could go shopping at the comfort of your own office hehe... Delivered straight to you!

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[Gumusut_Amige]

Well why the hell would you go into shopping malls and risk getting trampled while you could go shopping at the comfort of your own office hehe... Delivered straight to you!

so true bro tidus... btw happy birthday kung b-day mo kahapon and welcome back

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Private sector creates 215,000 jobs in November vs. 173,000 estimate: ADP

Private sector job creation surged in November, with ADP reporting 215,000 new jobs in a number that could put some heat on the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its monthly stimulus.

Economists expected ADP to report the private sector created 173,000 new jobs in November.

US 10Y note yield now 2.85%


dollar index

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US: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slides to 53.9 in November

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in November from 55.4 in October, the Institute for Supply Management informed on Wednesday. Analysts expected less decrease to 55.

stocks bounce back

U.S. Stocks Erase Losses Amid Budget Deal Optimism - Bloomberg

U.S. stocks erased losses as data showing U.S. services expanded less than forecast eased concern that the Federal Reserve will cut monetary stimulus.

got that?

an hour ago stocks fell coz of this --

Private sector job creation surged in November, with ADP reporting 215,000 new jobs in a number that could put some heat on the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its monthly stimulus.

Today is a damning example of how broken the stock market is | ForexLive

If there are any adults left at the Federal Reserve, today is a wake-up call.

The stock market sold off on good news in the ADP employment report and is now rallying on bad news in the ISM non-manufacturing report. That’s not how a market is supposed to work. It’s one day, sure, but it’s fuel for the many market watchers who believe the Fed has inflated a bubble in stocks.

The Fed needs to take the training wheels off this market and find out if it can ride solo. This is embarrassing.

haha

the market sells off on good news and rallies on bad news

remember risk-on, risk off?

now it's taper-on, taper-off

[Monseratto]

Hmmm...Venezuela is heading the way of Zimbabwe. Hugo Chavez's replacement has done worse in an attempt to retain his popularity. They place priced control on appliances and now there is a shortage. Now they doing the same thing to cars, even second hand...

BBC News - Venezuela: Maduro signs decree to control car prices

Venezuela: Maduro signs decree to control car prices

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has signed a decree controlling the price of new and second-hand cars.

New cars are currently hard to find, and Venezuelans often have to pay very high prices for an used car.

Mr Maduro, who previously legislated on the prices of electronics, toys and clothes, has accused criminal gangs of creating artificially high prices in the used car market.

The legislation says old cars cannot be sold at prices higher than new cars.

More details will be available when the legislation (decree number 625) is published on Thursday.

People will be "expressly forbidden to speculate on the prices of second-hand vehicles as though they were new," Mr Maduro told the official Agencia Venezoelana de Noticias.

Those who break the new law will face jail sentences of six to 12 years, Mr Maduro said.

The government hopes that the regulations will put a halt to a popular loophole used by Venezuelans to guard against one of the world's highest inflation rates (21.1% in 2012), says the BBC's Irene Caselli in Caracas.

But critics say government intervention will encourage the black market.

They blame the government's left-wing policies for keeping foreign investment away and hurting the economy.

Mr Maduro was elected in March by a narrow margin, succeeding the late President Hugo Chavez, who died of cancer after 14 years in office.

Last month, Mr Maduro requested special powers to rule by decree for a year to deal with the economic crisis.

This is the third decree he has signed since he was granted the controversial special powers.

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[tidus1203]

Huge correction for USDJPY! In fact I am quote worried it has topped... Does not look good at the daily chart...

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good news for the US economy

Third-quarter growth revised up to 3.6 percent | Reuters

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew faster than initially estimated in the third quarter as businesses aggressively accumulated stock, but underlying domestic demand remained sluggish.

Gross domestic product grew at a 3.6 percent annual rate instead of the 2.8 percent pace reported earlier, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected output would be revised up to only a 3.0 percent rate.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Drop to Two-Month Low - Bloomberg

Applications for U.S. employment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in more than two months as the data becomes more difficult to adjust for seasonal variations during the year-end holiday period.

Jobless claims decreased 23,000 to 298,000 in the week ended Nov. 30, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 320,000 from an initially reported 316,000 the prior week.

so stocks are down hehe

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US 10Y note future

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non-farm payrolls tomorrow