World economy talk

[uls]

pressure on the doillar

Bernanke backs Yellen: Taper depends on economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday the Fed would maintain its ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy for as long as needed and only begin to taper bond buying once it is assured that improvements in the labor market would continue.

He noted that the fed funds rate can remain near zero 'well after' the unemployment rate hits 6.5 percent and that unemployment targets are thresholds, not triggers. The U.S. unemployment rate is currently at 7.3 percent.

In a speech to the National Economists Club that echoed dovish comments by his nominated successor, Janet Yellen, Bernanke also said that while the economy had made significant progress, it was still far from where officials wanted it to be.

"The FOMC remains committed to maintaining highly accommodative policies for as long as they are needed,'' he said in prepared remarks, referring to the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

"I agree with the sentiment, expressed by my colleague Janet Yellen at her testimony last week, that the surest path to a more normal approach to monetary policy is to do all we can today to promote a more robust recovery,'' he said.

"Asset purchases are not on a preset course," he noted, adding that the bond purchase pace will remain "contingent on the Committee's economic outlook."

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foreign funds selling

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Fed officials felt taper may happen at next few meetings: minutes | Reuters

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials felt they could decide to start scaling back the U.S. central bank's massive asset-purchase program at one of its next few meetings provided this was warranted by economic growth.

US 10Y yield


dollar index

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from page 762 June 15, 2013

we think USDJPY will be above 100 at yr end

[Retz]

Here's Why The Philippines Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble in Disguise

Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise - Forbes

[Monseratto]

Thailand's never ending political mess, this time it's the Royalist Yellow shirts again...fighting the pro-Thaksin Red shirts...again. Yung may balak magbakasyon sa Bangkok, be careful. Baka harangin ulit yung Airport.

Thailand protests: PM Yingluck invokes security powers
25 November 2013 Last updated at 16:58 GMT



The Thai prime minister has invoked special powers in Bangkok and elsewhere after anti-government protesters forced their way into two key ministries.

Yingluck Shinawatra was responding to a second day of demonstrations in Bangkok by tens of thousands of people calling for her government to resign.

Her decision to enforce the Internal Security Act enables officials to impose curfews and seal roads.

The protests have been triggered by a controversial political amnesty bill.

The demonstrators, who had staged a huge rally on Sunday, marched on Monday to several different locations in Bangkok, including the police headquarters and TV stations.

The BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok says the first government department to fall was the finance ministry which, according to the protesters, misuses the country's budget.

The protesters then forced their way into the foreign ministry as well as the government's public relations department.

The prime minister went on national TV saying that their "illegal actions" threatened "the stability of the government" and prevented civil servants from doing their work.

However she insisted the government did not want to see a repeat of the violence that led to dozens of people being killed in a military crackdown.

"Our National Security service is now monitoring the protest and we are trying to handle the protesters without any violence," she said.

Special security measures would now be enforced in large parts of the capital, Nonthaburi to the north and areas to the east that included the airport, she added.

[Ry_Tower]

^ It's holding their economy. Sa March pa naman yung wedding nang friend ko sa Phuket, sana ayos na gulo by that time.

[uls]

so who benefited from 5 years of QE?

wealthy people

chart shows performance of luxury retailers (wealthy clients) vs regular retailers (middle class clients)

[uls]

a few days ago

Special: China establishes its first air defense ID zone - Xinhua | English.news.cn

BEIJING, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- The Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China issued a statement on establishing the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone.

so naturally...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/25/wo...ands.html?_r=0

TOKYO — Japan’s foreign minister on Sunday refused to recognize China’s newly claimed air defense zone over disputed islands, signaling that Japan would not back down as tensions increased in the maritime dispute.

US backs Japan as China tensions soar on air defence zone

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The United States (US) on Monday joined ally Japan in vowing not to recognise China's declaration of an air defence zone over much of the East China Sea, a move that has sharply escalated tensions.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...imed-by-china/

U.S. military aircraft will not change how they conduct operations in the East China Sea despite China’s announcement that it has established an air defense zone over those waters, Pentagon officials said today.

things just got even more interesting

U.S. Directly Challenges China's Air Defense Zone - WSJ.com

WASHINGTON—A pair of American B-52 bombers flew over a disputed island chain in the East China Sea without informing Beijing, U.S. officials said Tuesday, in a direct challenge to China and its establishment of an expanded air-defense zone.

The planes flew out of Guam and entered the new Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone at about 7 p.m. Washington time Monday, according to a U.S. official.

[jhnkvn]

World War III naaaaaaa.....

[Monseratto]

World War III naaaaaaa.....

China playing "wag the dog" because their domestic economy isn't doing to well.

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with the threat of deflation and record high unemployment the last thing the eurozone needs is a strong currency

oh wait




hehe

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usdjpy 102

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China Government-Bond Yields Soar - WSJ.com

SHANGHAI—Yields on Chinese government debt have soared to their highest levels in nearly nine years amid Beijing's relentless drive to tighten the monetary spigots in the world's second-largest economy.

Chinese govt and corporate bond yields are rising not coz the govt is pulling liquidity out of the market as WSJ \says above

yields are rising coz interbank lending has frozen up

big banks have stopped lending to smaller banks leaving smaller banks short of cash

in China, banks are the main buyers of govt and corporate bonds

there's now less cash to park in bonds so less demand caused prices to fall, yields to rise

[uls]

posted on Nov. 12, 2013 (page 797)

dollar strength is driving money out of emerging markets

so where does the money go?

answer this question --- who gains from a stronger dollar?

first that comes to mind is Japan

a weaker yen is good for Japan





i think the market is still underweight Japan equities and overweight EM stocks

that should be changing by now

we should see outflows from EM and inflows into Japan

Japan's Nikkei hits highest close in nearly 6 years | Reuters

TOKYO, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average soared 1.8 percent to its highest closing level in nearly six years on Thursday, as a slump in the yen pushed exporters higher on expectations of improved earnings.

The Nikkei closed 277.49 points higher at 15,727.12, the biggest daily gain in a week. The benchmark is up 9.8 percent so far this month, and up 51 percent so far this year.

If the year-to-date gains were to hold for the rest of the year, it would be the Nikkei's best yearly performance since 1972.

[uls]

and did i say short yen?

Yen Primed for a Tumble - WSJ.com

Nov. 28, 2013 8:28 a.m. ET

Investors are piling into bets against the yen, taking another run at a trade that proved lucrative for some of the industry's largest money managers earlier this year.

Wagers that the Japanese currency will slide against the U.S. dollar have surged to the highest amount this year and are within striking distance of levels not seen since 2007, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which tracks positions of some hedge funds and other speculators.

The bets are already paying off, with the yen slumping to its lowest in six months against the dollar this week, and falling almost 4% this month. It echoes a slide one year ago when then yen tumbled 22% from late October 2012 to the end of April.

[Monseratto]

Desperate to stay "popular" with the Chavenistas...but ended up with a appliance shortage, since no idiot will want their wares to be "looted" by the state.



Venezuela sends in troops to force electronics chain to charge 'fair' prices - World News

Venezuela sends in troops to force electronics chain to charge 'fair' prices

By Girish Gupta, Correspondent, GlobalPost
CARACAS, Venezuela — In his fight against the economic "war" that he says the political opposition, in collusion with the United States, is waging against Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro ordered the military occupation of a chain of electronics stores over the weekend, forcing the company to charge "fair" prices.

The order against Daka, which is basically Venezuela's Best Buy, sparked chaos at the store's five outlets.

Thousands lined up outside the chain's stores hoping to buy cut-price plasma televisions or appliances such as fridges, washing machines and sewing machines.

Pictures shared on social media as well as local newspaper reports said that one store in the country's central city of Valencia faced looting. Some critics suggested that the entire operation was a form of looting organized by the government, just in time for municipal elections in December.

This is for the good of the nation," Maduro said on state television. "Leave nothing on the shelves, nothing in the warehouses … Let nothing remain in stock!"

Venezuela's economy is in a tailspin. Annual inflation is at 54.3 percent and the severe shortage of dollars has created a black market where the greenback sells at nearly 10 times its official value. The dollar shortage has also caused a lack of basic products, such as toilet paper, chicken and cooking oil.
As a result, the popularity of Maduro, who came to power in April following the death of long-time leader Hugo Chavez, has plummeted. Analysts are expecting upcoming municipal elections to be a referendum on his leadership.

Critics blame the dire economy on government currency controls enacted by Chavez a decade ago to prevent capital flight. The government, meanwhile, blames what it calls an "economic war" being waged by the opposition, with help from Washington.

Head of the High Commission for the People's Defence of the Economy Hebert Garcia Plaza attempted to explain the government's decision to take over Daka on state television on Friday, accusing the chain of unfair markups.

Local economist Jose Guerra, a former Central Bank official, was critical of not just the events at Daka but the bigger picture. "Food today, hunger tomorrow," he wrote on Twitter.

Venezuela's opposition leader, Henrique Capriles, has long blamed the government for the state of the country's economy. On Saturday, he tweeted: "Everything Maduro does leads to further destruction of the economy."

"Today it's Daka. Tomorrow it'll be the banks where you save your money," tweeted Maria G. Colmenares, a professor at a local university.

Oscar Diaz resorted to sarcasm to make his point: "Daka had flour, sugar, milk and other basics. The shortage is over! Ah sorry, they sell [appliances]! Oops."

[uls]

so who benefited from 5 years of QE?

wealthy people

chart shows performance of luxury retailers (wealthy clients) vs regular retailers (middle class clients)

5 years of QE

compare 2 ETFs -- XLY and XLP

XLY tracks the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index

The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index includes companies from the following industries: retail (specialty, multi-line, internet and catalog); media; hotels, restaurants & leisure; household durables; textiles, apparel & luxury goods; automobiles, auto components and distributors; leisure equipment & products; and diversified consumer services.

XLP tracks the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index

The Consumer Staples Select Sector Index includes companies from the following industries: food & staples retailing; household products; food products; beverages; tobacco; and personal products.

[tidus1203]

Miss me? bwahaha!!!

Anyway since I was last here the world has changed quite a lot. Japan is now printing faster than the US. Europe is still in the stinkhole. The UK is improving. The US? Well still printing money and now with Janet Yellen at the helm of the Fed next year the money printing circus continues...

[_Cathy_]

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