Is WWIII inevitable?

[Flipo]

Putin and Xi’s imperium of grievance | Inquirer Opinion

World View
Putin and Xi’s imperium of grievance
By: Orville Schell - *inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:03 AM March 05, 2022

NEW YORK — Soon after the news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine flashed across my computer screen, I received an email that seemed to mark another milestone in the dismantling of the old global order: A “Customer Service Announcement” reporting that the Valery Gergiev—described as “a friend and prominent supporter of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia”—would no longer be conducting the Vienna Philharmonic orchestra. Many other orchestras have since cut ties with Gergiev as well.

Until the Russian invasion, it was still possible to believe that a full Western “decoupling” from China and Russia was both unlikely and unwise. Yet Gergiev’s removal is a metaphor for how the newly confected Sino-Russian axis is catalyzing a rift that will now affect everything from cultural exchanges to trade.

Until the invasion, many were skeptical that the European Union (especially Germany) would ever get the Russian natural-gas needle out of its arm—especially with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline offering up a fresh vein. Equally, many have wondered how the US could ever kick its addiction to low-cost Chinese-made merchandise now that so many of its own factories have closed.

During the halcyon days of globalization, global supply chains seemed to promise boundless benefits for everyone. What was wrong with outsourcing to distant lands if they could make something cheaper and ship it faster? Open markets were touted for their ability to create more open societies. All we had to do was keep trading transnationally, paying no heed to the ideological or political cast of the other country. Thus did the West, and much of the rest of the world, become codependent with Russia (for gas) and China (for rare earths, polysilicon, pharmaceuticals, and old-fashioned consumer goods).

But with Putin invading Ukraine and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressing revanchist attitudes toward Taiwan, we are left to assess not only an upturned world order and a shattered global marketplace, but also the sundering of anodyne cultural exchanges.

It is important to remember that autocrats are far freer to act in unrestrained ways, because they face few if any political checks and balances. Thus, as “supreme” leaders, they can shape policies according to their own characterological disorder without challenges. While Putin and Xi have very different backgrounds and personalities, they share some key traits. Both are deeply insecure, paranoid men who have been shaped by historical narratives of grievance, especially against the “great powers” of the West.

These narratives center around Leninist themes of foreign exploitation, humiliation, and victimization. They demonize Western democracies as hypocrites and oppressors (as in Lenin’s theory of imperialism). And they impute arrogant and disdainful attitudes to the West.

More than anything else, Putin and Xi want respect. Yet they know that most Western leaders do not, and probably never will, respect their authoritarianism—no matter how successful they are in building high-speed rail lines, constructing modern cities, or hosting Olympic Games. It is this respect-deficit syndrome that has created their imperium of resentment and grievance. Putin and Xi recognize that they will never overcome this, regardless of how successfully their foreign, technology, and space policies advance their countries’ development, or how much oil and gas they sell to the world. And it does no good to admonish them that gaining respect requires them to behave respectably, rather than jailing opposition candidates and dissidents (including Nobel laureates), persecuting people for their religious beliefs, bullying other countries with punitive trade policies, and launching invasions. Having drunk the Leninist Kool-Aid of victimization, Putin and Xi simultaneously want to overthrow the Western order and be esteemed by it.

As such, they are animated by a contradiction that no amount of Western handholding can resolve. Not even the tonic effect of “engagement,” sustained through nine US presidential administrations, was enough to overcome China’s sense of being the target of constant disapprobation and ideological threat (in the form of “peaceful evolution” and “color revolutions”) from the world’s democracies. Putin and Xi take great umbrage at having to live next door to successful democracies, like Ukraine and Taiwan, comprised of peoples with similar histories, cultures, and ethnicities.

The magnetic force of shared grievance has brought these two former rivals so close that they recently declared there were “no limits” to their partnership. Both insist that it should be up to the people of the country “to decide whether their state is a democratic one.” And Putin and Xi claim they are leading a new kind of democracy, never mind that Putin fancies himself a czar, and that Xi’s version of governance is a “democratic dictatorship of the proletariat.”

The question now is whether Russia and China will be able to maintain their opportunistic pact following Putin’s decision to go to war. Just before the invasion, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference that the “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity” of all countries should be protected, and that “Ukraine is no exception.” And Xi subsequently called Putin to explain that, while he understands Russia’s security concerns, China still respects the sovereignty of nation-states and intends to uphold the principles of the United Nations Charter. After all, the Communist Party of China does not want foreign powers interfering in its own “internal affairs,” never mind invading China.

Which of these imperatives will win out? Most likely, China and Russia’s shared aversion to liberal democracy (and to the self-righteousness of democratic leaders) will ultimately trump the quaint nineteenth-century idea that national sovereignty is sacred. The narrative of victimization that is psychologically fueling both countries’ nationalism with reservoirs of resentment is simply too powerful to be nullified by the niceties of international law. Project Syndicate

——————
Orville Schell is director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society. He is a co-editor (with Larry Diamond) of “Chinese Influence and American Interests: Promoting Constructive Engagement.”

[Athrunzala]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499976967105433600

[uls]

dun palang sa pag freeze ng central bank reserves enough reason na to go to war

di dapat ginagalaw ang central bank kahit anong galit nila sa isang bansa

economic equivalent yan ng nuclear bomb

[Athrunzala]

Duterte: ‘Watch out for Putin, he is suicidal’

[Athrunzala]

Google Searches For Iodine Pills Skyrocket

Google Searches For Iodine Pills Skyrocket | ZeroHedge

[tsupermario]

As the leaders of the European Union gathered for an emergency summit on Thursday night, momentum was already moving toward imposing tough new sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But a handful of key leaders, notably including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, were reluctant to proceed with some of the harshest proposals. Scholz told reporters on the way into the meeting in Brussels that he wanted to focus on implementing sanctions that had already been approved before enacting new ones.

After a perfunctory debate, the presidents and prime ministers quickly approved sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and some of Russia's biggest banks. Talk of barring Russia from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT, however, stalled amid skepticism on the part of Scholz and the leaders of Austria, Italy and Cyprus, according to officials familiar with the deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.

Then Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dialed into the meeting via teleconference with a bracing appeal that left some of the world-weary politicians with watery eyes. In just five minutes, Zelensky - speaking from the battlefield of Kyiv - pleaded with European leaders for an honest assessment of his country's ambition to join the European Union and for genuine help in its fight with the Russian invaders. Ukraine needed its neighbors to step up with food, ammunition, fuel, sanctions, all of it.

“It was extremely, extremely emotional," said a European official briefed on the call. "He was essentially saying, 'Look, we are here dying for European ideals.'" Before ending the video call, Zelensky told the gathering matter-of-factly that it might be the last time they saw him alive, according to a senior European official who was present.
Just that quickly, Zelensky's personal appeal overwhelmed the resistance from European leaders to imposing measures that could drive the Russian economy into a state of near collapse. The result has been a rapid-fire series of developments boosting Ukraine's fight to hold off the Russian military and shattering the limits on European assertiveness in national security affairs.

The actions culminated on Saturday, when the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced they would bar several major Russian banks from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT, crack down on Russian oligarchs, and prevent the Russian central bank from bailing out the domestic economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-central-bank/

[tsupermario]

Shocked out of its post-World War II pacifist zeitgeist by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany was transforming itself with breathtaking speed Sunday to be among the leaders in arming Ukraine with weaponry and boosting its own defense spending.

While more than 100,000 — organizers estimated the crowd at 500,000 — Germans cheered speakers denouncing Russian President Vladimir Putin and his armed forces at a peace rally in the heart of Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced stunning plans at the Reichstag less than a mile away to spend an additional 100 billion euros (about $111 billion) for a special fund to re-equip its own military — on top of the 47 billion euros already in this year’s budget.

Increasingly embarrassed by its hesitancy to strongly support Ukraine and break away from its main energy supplier, Russia, the nation with a deep aversion to war following the horrors it inflicted in World War II is now planning to end its historical ban on sending arms into conflict zones.

…

“The times have changed,” Scholz told a special session of parliament Sunday. “The world is no longer the same. We will have to invest a lot more in our country’s security — to protect our freedom and to protect our democracy.”

With its close business ties to Russia — and dependence on Russia for more than half of its natural gas supplies — Germany had come under increasing criticism from its European Union and NATO partners for dragging its feet on sending arms to help Ukraine defend itself. It had also been reticent in agreeing to tough economic sanctions, such as barring Russian banks from the SWIFT system of international payments.

Scholz, who succeeded Chancellor Angela Merkel just two months ago, finally dropped the refusal to export arms to Ukraine on Saturday — before that, Germany declined to send any supplies other than 5,000 helmets.

Scholz opened the floodgates further Sunday with the surprise announcement that Germany would immediately raise its defense spending to the 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) promised to NATO partners in 2014 from 1.4% currently — after declaring for the last eight years that was not possible.

…

Julius van de Laar, a political analyst in Berlin, said Germany had been under massive pressure from the rest of the EU to take tougher steps against Russia, even though it would mean putting aside its deeply pacifist leanings and the ghosts of its Nazi past.

Germany’s knotty reasoning in thwarting the EU from banning Russia from the SWIFT international banking system last week triggered a strong reaction against Berlin this weekend.

“Germany has been pushed into taking these steps by a surprisingly united EU,” said Van de Laar. “If we’re honest, Germany has been a laggard for decades on defense. And everyone has been telling Germany to stop being dependent on Russian gas. It’s late in the game but at least Germany moved in the right direction.”

At the peace rally in Berlin, most of the speakers and participants expressed relief that Germany was finally jumping over its shadow and strongly contributing to Ukraine's defense.

“We’re here to show solidarity for Ukraine and we hope we can have a positive effect on ending the war,” said Marc Ahner, a 46-year-old jazz singer holding a sign calling for Putin to be jailed for war crimes. “I don’t think Putin will be intimidated by us. But it’s still important that we’re all here standing up for Ukraine and hopefully he’ll see all that support.”

Ahner added that, like many Germans, he was torn apart by the question of whether Germany, which was responsible for so much death and destruction during World War II, should be involved in sending weapons.

“It’s a horrible bind for us to be in,” he said. “I really don’t know what is worse — to be accused of not helping Ukraine by not sending weapons or to be sending weapons into a war zone. But it’s probably the lesser of two evils.”

Hartmut Kramer, a pensioner in Berlin who was born in 1944, near the end of World War II, said he has been taking part in peace marches for decades and opposed the stationing of U.S. nuclear weapons in West Germany during the Cold War. But he said Germany has no choice now.
“I’m always against weapons,” said Kramer, who as a 1-year-old in Upper Silesia, now part of Poland, was among those fleeing an invading Russian army. “I’ve always believed in the peace movement. But nothing justifies what Putin is doing. It’s with a heavy heart that I would say sometimes there’s no other choice but to send weapons.”

Germany shakes off post-World War II timidity to back Ukraine defense against Russia

[ratboy]

Life was filled with guns and war

And everyone got trampled on the floor

I wish we'd all been ready

Children died the days grew cold

A piece of bread could buy a bag of gold

I wish we'd all been ready

[uls]

why westerners are so outraged

why westerners express so much sympathy and empathy towards ukrainians but are totally indifferent when this sort of thing happens in the middle east or africa or some 3rd world country

https://twitter.com/amasad/status/1500168965724672001

[tsupermario]

Those who wage war forget humanity. They do not start from the people, they do not look at the real life of people, but place partisan interests and power before all else. - Pope Francis

[Egan101]

why westerners are so outraged

why westerners express so much sympathy and empathy towards ukrainians but are totally indifferent when this sort of thing happens in the middle east or africa or some 3rd world country

https://twitter.com/amasad/status/1500168965724672001

Ok lang daw kung sa Asians or Africans mangyari, basta wag lang sa Europeans! Freakin’ racists! Let Russian steel rain more on them!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ray_noel]

Ok lang daw kung sa Asians or Africans mangyari, basta wag lang sa Europeans! Freakin’ racists! Let Russian steel rain more on them!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Diretso na sa kanila na lang kaya ang laban… huwag na idamay ang innocent and ayaw ng gulo…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tsupermario]

i think whats missing there is context

also, trevor lives in nyc. if he lives in europe maybe…

[uls]

Ok lang daw kung sa Asians or Africans mangyari, basta wag lang sa Europeans! Freakin’ racists! Let Russian steel rain more on them!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

the western world has been watching bombings and killings on CNN for decades

all of a sudden di nila ma-take?

all of a sudden they care?

dahil white, blonde, blue-eyed mga nag sa-suffer ngayon

"omg they're us"

"they have instagram and watch netflix like us"

pero pag ibang lahi dark skinned di maka-relate mga puti

"savages"

[uls]

pero alam ko human nature yan

kahit tayo ganyan din

kunwari may dinukot na estudyante sa mindanao... tayo taga NCR di apektado... feeling natin malayo eh (figuratively and literally)

pero pag may dinukot na estudyante taga top school sa NCR... ay sigurado trending topic yan dito sa tsikot

"it's too close to home... it could be one of our kids"

[ray_noel]

Sa middle east na war, hindi naman ganun ka laki epekto dito sa tsikot…wala naman mga sympathy over them ako nababasa…. Hmmmm…. Ngayon sa russia vs ukraine, biglang may ganun….

para sa akin ewan ako bakit ayaw nila diretsohin ang kalaban… nung umatake u.s sa middle east pwede naman may rason si russiA if gusto nya talaga…. Ngayon naman inatake si russia, wala rin ang u.s, pwede naman siya may rason…

Ano toh, sample.lan lang ng kakahayan sa mga bansa na walang kalaban2…. Gusto nila magpa siklab, dalhin nila dun sa kabilang dimension ang labanan, yung walang mga inosenteng madamay…

Padala nila sa mars lahat super weapons nila, ang umuwi sa earth ma buhay yun ang mag lead mg one goverment,., ano sa tingin mo kags? San nag graduate yang mga yan?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[uls]

Sa middle east na war, hindi naman ganun ka laki epekto dito sa tsikot…wala naman mga sympathy over them ako nababasa…. Hmmmm…. Ngayon sa russia vs ukraine, biglang may ganun….

western-centric kasi ang pinoy

kung saan simpatya ng mga puti doon din simpatya ng mga pinoy

#prayforparis

[Ry_Tower]

Diretso na sa kanila na lang kaya ang laban… huwag na idamay ang innocent and ayaw ng gulo…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Kaso there are way more innocents and collateral damage! Sabagay okay lang malayo naman sa atin.

[ray_noel]

Kaso there are way more innocents and collateral damage! Sabagay okay lang malayo naman sa atin.

Like mga movies na old war… yung sa open field sila magkita2… armies va armies…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shadow]

Konting push pa ng west and Putin will be remove by Russians, kung totoo yun meron nag leak sa assassination attempt sa Ukraine President then hinde na loyal lahat kay Putin.

I think it's about time that the west call on his bluff. Masyado na matagal nagpaloko at nagpatakot west kay Putin it's about to shut him up once and for all.

Sabi nga ni uls eh yun sanction eh declaration na ng war yun so ano pa iniintay nila?

Just in case mag-utos yan si Putin ng nuclear war i think military will intervine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk