SWS poll: 79 percent want GMA impeached

[oldblue]

siguro dapat itanong na lang sa SWS or even Pulse Asia kung nag-survey din sila sa Mindanao, particularly sa Cotabato, Jolo at Basilan. from what I recall, dun din ata nagsimula yun issue ng Garci tapes eh, kasi dami din botante dun.

[mazdamazda]

siguro dapat itanong na lang sa SWS or even Pulse Asia kung nag-survey din sila sa Mindanao, particularly sa Cotabato, Jolo at Basilan. from what I recall, dun din ata nagsimula yun issue ng Garci tapes eh, kasi dami din botante dun.

reposting the full text of the survey:

August 26-September 5, 2005 Social Weather Survey:
79% Pro-Impeachment, 64% Pro-Resignation,
51% Pro-People-Power If GMA Not Impeached
Social Weather Stations

Anti-GMA feelings ran very high in the last few days of the recent hearings of the House Committee on Justice, with the nationwide 3rd Quarter 2005 Social Weather Survey finding 79% wanting President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo impeached, 64% favoring her resignation, and 51% saying she should be removed by People Power if the House of Representatives would reject her impeachment.

The Garci factor

The key factor in the negative sentiment is the belief of most Filipinos that GMA's admitted phone calls to "a Comelec official" amounted to instructing him to cheat in the 2004 election, and were not merely meant to protect her votes as she claimed in her June 27 apology.

Among the majority 57% believing that GMA's phone calls gave instructions to cheat, 89% were pro-impeachment, 80% were pro-resignation, and 62% were pro-People-Power.

Among the minority 36% accepting that she called the Comelec official only to protect her votes, a large 68% were nevertheless pro-impeachment, but only 44% were pro-resignation, and only 35% were pro-People-Power.

Mixed opinions about the House and the Senate

The SWS survey found mixed opinions about whether the House of Representatives could decide fairly on the impeachment of President Arroyo and whether the Senate, in case GMA would be impeached, could decide fairly on whether or not to remove her from office.

Only 22% said they had much trust in the House, whereas 29% said they had little trust in it, and 48% felt unsure either way. Only 24% said they had much trust in the Senate, whereas 25% said they had little trust in it, and 50% felt unsure either way.

Similarity to the prelude to Erap's impeachment

These findings are reminiscent of public opinion in 2000, just before the impeachment of President Joseph 'Erap' Estrada. In October 2000, an SWS survey commissioned by the Manila Standard found public belief or disbelief in the charges of Gov. Luis 'Chavit' Singson against Erap as the key factor in framing opinions as to whether the latter should resign.

The said October 2000 SWS survey found 26% with much trust in the House, 19% with little trust in it, and 54% unsure of it, on the matter of making a fair decision on whether to impeach Erap; it found 26% with much trust in the Senate, 17% with little trust in it, and 57% unsure of it, on the matter of reaching a fair verdict in case Erap would be impeached.

Pro-Impeachment Dominant Everywhere

In the new Social Weather Survey, large majorities in all study areas called for GMA's impeachment: 90% in Metro Manila, 82% in Mindanao, 79% in the Balance of Luzon, and 69% in the Visayas.

The higher the socio-economic class, and the higher the schooling, the greater the support for either impeachment or resignation of President Arroyo.

Visayans Divided On Resignation

Pro-resignation sentiment had majorities in Mindanao (72%), Metro Manila (70%), and the Balance of Luzon (65%).
Visayans, however, were split into 49% favoring and 50% opposing GMA's resignation.

People Power

The call for People Power to remove GMA in case of non-impeachment was a dominant 51% in favor, versus 26% against, and 23% undecided.

The percentage scores for and against such People Power were 62-25 in Metro Manila, 51-28 in the Balance of Luzon, 40-31 in the Visayas, and 53-21 in Mindanao, with the remainders from 100 percent being the undecided in each area.

The very poor E classes were highly in favor of People Power, by a score of 54-18, followed by the D class or masa, with a score of 51-26.

The middle-to-upper or ABC classes, on the other hand, were split 43-42 on the use of People Power.

Net Satisfaction of PGMA at -23

The August 2005 Social Weather Survey found 30% satisfied and 53% dissatisfied with the performance of GMA, giving her a very low Net Satisfaction Rating of -23.

This was not as bad, however, as in May 2005 when there were 26% satisfied and 59% dissatisfied or a Net Satisfaction Rating of -33, the record low for all Presidents beginning with Corazon Aquino.

The President's net satisfaction rating in the Visayas, where she customarily draws her strongest support, climbed back to merely zero, from -15 in May.

In other areas her net rating was negative, at -44 in NCR, -26 in Mindanao, and -25 in the Balance of Luzon.

GMA's rating rose by 3 points in NCR and by 22 points in the Balance of Luzon, but fell by 14 points in Mindanao.

According to socioeconomic class, her net satisfaction rating was -13 among the middle-to-upper ABCs, -23 among the masa or Ds, and -31 among the very poor Es.

Survey Background

The Social Weather Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2005 and the Manila Standard-commissioned SWS survey of October 26-30, 2000 both used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages).

In the new Social Weather Survey, all interviews outside Metro Manila were completed during August 26-31. In Metro Manila, 259 interviews were done over August 26-31; the balance of 41 interviews were completed over September 1-5. Thus, although the inclusive field period for the national sample was August 26 to September 5, 97% of the interviews had been done by the evening of August 31 when the House Committee on Justice voted to reject all the impeachment complaints.

Analysis of the component of the Metro Manila sample consisting of interviews with individuals having landline telephones in their homes shows consistency with the findings of the three telephone surveys done by SWS in Metro Manila from late June to early August 2005.

The items described in this release were not commissioned, but were included on SWS's own initiative. The quarterly Social Weather Surveys are supported by subscribers, who have no proprietary rights over the data. The Fourth Quarter 2005 Social Weather Survey will be fielded sometime in November.

[oldblue]

thanks mazdamazda

In the new Social Weather Survey, all interviews outside Metro Manila were completed during August 26-31. In Metro Manila, 259 interviews were done over August 26-31; the balance of 41 interviews were completed over September 1-5. Thus, although the inclusive field period for the national sample was August 26 to September 5, 97% of the interviews had been done by the evening of August 31 when the House Committee on Justice voted to reject all the impeachment complaints.

kelan ba na-i-decide yun ruling sa 158 vs. 51. no impeach vs yes impeach. parang last week lang ata yun d'ba?
d ba dapat bago na ulit survey nila after the ruling? para malaman ang sentimyento ng tao, kasi marami naman magbabago ng stand after these event.

Analysis of the component of the Metro Manila sample consisting of interviews with individuals having landline telephones in their homes shows consistency with the findings of the three telephone surveys done by SWS in Metro Manila from late June to early August 2005.

this is particularly disturbing, if they claim that majority of those who want GMA removed are from the Class E, pano nila na-interview iyun eh alam naman natin wala telepono yun mga yun.

[IceColdBeer]

I'm from Cotabato City and two weeks ago i've met with my childhood friend who is a councilor and his dad who is a Vice Governor. They are both under the administration party and I asked them who really won in Sultan Kudarat. They told me straight away, si FPJ ang nanalo at malaki talaga ang lamang pero pagdating sa Manila si GMA na daw ang lumabas.

[dcar]

Hindi ba importante sa inyo ang malaman kung nandaya nga si GMA o hinde? Bago pa magkaroon ng impeachment di ba ipinagmamalaki ni GMA na "dalhin na lang sa proper forum ang kaso and not on the streets", "sa impeachment ko sasagutin lahat yan", yan ang laging isinasagot ng mga taga Malakanyang di ba? Tapos ngayun ang mga kongresista ibinasura naman ang impeachment dahil sa technicalities. Paano na nya mapapatunayan na nandaya ba sya o hinde?
Kaya naman minadali ang pagbasura ay para may maipagmalaki si GMA sa U.N meeting nya di ba? Kahit na hindi totoo na tahimik na at tapos na ang crisis ay ipinilit nya tapusin trough voting ng mga kongresista. Ano kaplit nito? ANG PAG-APPROVE NAMAN NG HINAYUPAK NA PORK BARREL ! in TRILLION PESOS!
Aminado sya at nag sorry, kung wala syang ginawang kabulastugan di sya matatakot sa impeachment at ilalabas nya si Garci! Kahit pa konti lang sa tingin nyo ang people power ay importante pa rin silang bigyan ng pansin hindi yung kahit mga bata ay nasasaktan. Kung iisipin nyo, kay GMA ang mas maraming violence during demonstration compared to Erap. Sa tingin ko kaya walang ganang sumali sa people power ang iba dahil mas nakakatamad ang papalit: si NOLI! pero sa kalooban nila at isip, nandaya talaga si GMA!

[oldblue]

Hindi ba importante sa inyo ang malaman kung nandaya nga si GMA o hinde?

nde bat binasa naman noon 158 congressmen yun rap sheet against GMA, so kung yun 158 na yun nag-decide sila na insufficient yun documents to have reasonable cause to go on with impeachment, eh siguro dapat as taong-bayan tanggapin na natin.

ilan lang ba satin marunong bumasa ng ganyan, sila lang mga nasa pamahalaan at yun mga abogado like si 111prez d2. they have more credibility than us pagdating sa ganyan matters.

if you're saying na questionable ang mga congressmen na ito at pumirma lang at ang iniisip lang ang pork barrel or other pampalubag-loob, then wala ka na talaga trust sa sytema ng gobyerno, coz you dont believe anybody in power anymore. cynical ka na.

bakit naman noon panahon ni Erap, Erap has the power to grant all the congressmen at that time na nde lang pork barrel, baka beef & shrimp barrel pa! pero nag-push through pa din impeachment laban sa kanya. dont rule out the fact the these congressmen can vote out of conscience also.

[seung]

Hehe, hindi credible ang surveys kapag taliwas sa gusto ng nasa itaas.

Masyado kasing kinakabog sa impeachment. Kung walang kasalanan, hindi dapat matakot. Simple lang naman diba?

[BoyFerrari]

Hindi ba importante sa inyo ang malaman kung nandaya nga si GMA o hinde? Bago pa magkaroon ng impeachment di ba ipinagmamalaki ni GMA na "dalhin na lang sa proper forum ang kaso and not on the streets", "sa impeachment ko sasagutin lahat yan", yan ang laging isinasagot ng mga taga Malakanyang di ba? Tapos ngayun ang mga kongresista ibinasura naman ang impeachment dahil sa technicalities. Paano na nya mapapatunayan na nandaya ba sya o hinde?
Kaya naman minadali ang pagbasura ay para may maipagmalaki si GMA sa U.N meeting nya di ba? Kahit na hindi totoo na tahimik na at tapos na ang crisis ay ipinilit nya tapusin trough voting ng mga kongresista. Ano kaplit nito? ANG PAG-APPROVE NAMAN NG HINAYUPAK NA PORK BARREL ! in TRILLION PESOS!
Aminado sya at nag sorry, kung wala syang ginawang kabulastugan di sya matatakot sa impeachment at ilalabas nya si Garci! Kahit pa konti lang sa tingin nyo ang people power ay importante pa rin silang bigyan ng pansin hindi yung kahit mga bata ay nasasaktan. Kung iisipin nyo, kay GMA ang mas maraming violence during demonstration compared to Erap. Sa tingin ko kaya walang ganang sumali sa people power ang iba dahil mas nakakatamad ang papalit: si NOLI! pero sa kalooban nila at isip, nandaya talaga si GMA!

I-check mo na lang itong thread na ito, nandiyan yung mga responses:
http://tsikot.yehey.com/forums/showt...386#post423386

[mbt]

i'm guessing you guys who diss the validity of statistics don't know how it's done. my background is in social science and my field is in market research.

a sample of 1,200 people may very well accurately represent the sentiment of the whole country if the sampling is done right. that is, it is randomized or stratified into all the socio-economic classes across all the geographic regions of the country (which will be the most relevant parameter in a political question like this one). statistics is all about probability and not absolute gospel, but a well-done research methodology can assure a 95% or 99% confidence in the conclusions.

i have absolutely no reason to question the integrity of longtime research mainstays like the SWS. who commissions the project is a different matter, but the findings of the research firm are objective. my firm provided the data used in the SWS exit polls (which predicted that GMA will win the election) during the 2004 election, and to this day, stands by its findings even if a lot of people booed the managing director of the company as she presented her findings then (and my research director assures me that she is a person of unquestionable integrity).

he did qualify that by saying that they predicted that GMA will win the election then, but theyre not saying that she definitely did not cheat hehe.

[oldblue]

what if yun sumagot sa survey, say a vendor who wanted GMA impeached was already influenced by another survey that was aired on TV a week before.

ask the vendor, bakit yun sagot nya. sagot nya kasi sa TV yun isang survey dami ayaw si GMA so ganun na din sya.


d ba in this case, the survey is used to influence a new survey. and with constant surveys monthly or weekly, it's like brainwashing na talaga.


how accurate and credible is that?


with market research kasi, bagong product ang sini-survey. a product or an issue that has never been seen or heard before.