SWS poll: 79 percent want GMA impeached

[seung]

Hehe, hindi credible ang surveys kapag taliwas sa gusto ng nasa itaas.

Masyado kasing kinakabog sa impeachment. Kung walang kasalanan, hindi dapat matakot. Simple lang naman diba?

[mbt]

i'm guessing you guys who diss the validity of statistics don't know how it's done. my background is in social science and my field is in market research.

a sample of 1,200 people may very well accurately represent the sentiment of the whole country if the sampling is done right. that is, it is randomized or stratified into all the socio-economic classes across all the geographic regions of the country (which will be the most relevant parameter in a political question like this one). statistics is all about probability and not absolute gospel, but a well-done research methodology can assure a 95% or 99% confidence in the conclusions.

i have absolutely no reason to question the integrity of longtime research mainstays like the SWS. who commissions the project is a different matter, but the findings of the research firm are objective. my firm provided the data used in the SWS exit polls (which predicted that GMA will win the election) during the 2004 election, and to this day, stands by its findings even if a lot of people booed the managing director of the company as she presented her findings then (and my research director assures me that she is a person of unquestionable integrity).

he did qualify that by saying that they predicted that GMA will win the election then, but theyre not saying that she definitely did not cheat hehe.

[empy]

i'm guessing you guys who diss the validity of statistics don't know how it's done. my background is in social science and my field is in market research.

a sample of 1,200 people may very well accurately represent the sentiment of the whole country if the sampling is done right. that is, it is randomized or stratified into all the socio-economic classes across all the geographic regions of the country (which will be the most relevant parameter in a political question like this one). statistics is all about probability and not absolute gospel, but a well-done research methodology can assure a 95% or 99% confidence in the conclusions.

this is exactly what i'm saying. if you want more certainty, then do a census. even then it probably still won't be an absolute certainty depending on participation rates.

my company makes multimillion dollar decisions all the time based on the survey results that i'm responsible for. the president of the USA makes his own decisions based on these kinds of polls all the time. most people understand that in a world where decisions need to be made quickly or you lose, you have to go with 95% certainty versus not doing anything at all because you don't have the data.

[oldblue]

my company makes multimillion dollar decisions all the time based on the survey results that i'm responsible for. the president of the USA makes his own decisions based on these kinds of polls all the time. most people understand that in a world where decisions need to be made quickly or you lose, you have to go with 95% certainty versus not doing anything at all because you don't have the data.

malamang nga for quick decisions ang survey, that's why ang gusto ng opposition and mga militants, quick din ang pag-aalis ni Presidente sa Malacanang, wala ng due process, kalsada na lang ...

[empy]

malamang nga for quick decisions ang survey, that's why ang gusto ng opposition and mga militants, quick din ang pag-aalis ni Presidente sa Malacanang, wala ng due process, kalsada na lang ...

after saying everything that i did above, i do think that it would be stupid for anyone to use a poll in place of due process. but i'm sure the opposition will try their best ;)

[oldblue]

what if yun sumagot sa survey, say a vendor who wanted GMA impeached was already influenced by another survey that was aired on TV a week before.

ask the vendor, bakit yun sagot nya. sagot nya kasi sa TV yun isang survey dami ayaw si GMA so ganun na din sya.


d ba in this case, the survey is used to influence a new survey. and with constant surveys monthly or weekly, it's like brainwashing na talaga.


how accurate and credible is that?


with market research kasi, bagong product ang sini-survey. a product or an issue that has never been seen or heard before.

[BoyFerrari]

what if yun sumagot sa survey, say a vendor who wanted GMA impeached was already influenced by another survey that was aired on TV a week before.

ask the vendor, bakit yun sagot nya. sagot nya kasi sa TV yun isang survey dami ayaw si GMA so ganun na din sya.

d ba in this case, the survey is used to influence a new survey. and with constant surveys monthly or weekly, it's like brainwashing na talaga.

how accurate and credible is that?

And also, some answers are influenced by the method of questioning. Prosecutors use this tactic all the time, kaya nga panay objection yung defense counsel. Some questions in surveys are also suggestive in nature.

I'm not surprised if the next survey done by SWS or Pulse Asia is about the response of soldiers in the military:

Question #1: "Do you think your Commander-in-Chief is a cheater?"

Question #2: "If the people will clamor for it, would you like to join a mutiny?"

Question #3: "Do you believe that soldiers are being paid poorly?"

Question #4: "Do you think it is the perfect time to stage a coup while GMA is attending a U.N. summit abroad?"

[mbt]

imo (im no expert okay hehe) whether he was influenced by a prior survey, the survey that started it is probably credible and if it established a trend, then so be it. surveys are the only practical way to gauge public sentiment about issues, and if they influence people dramatically, then that should say something about the population as much as the survey results per se. public sentiment is public sentiment.

although on that note, i do disagree about publicizing surveys during election seasons.

[docpete]

OT: di ko alam mag post ng new thread eh. kaya...

By JEFFREY GOLD, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 38 minutes ago



NEWARK, N.J. - An FBI intelligence analyst with top secret clearance who worked at a New Jersey Army base was charged Monday with passing classified information about Filipino leaders to current and former officials of that nation.

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The analyst, Leandro Aragoncillo, sent some of the material to Michael Ray Aquino, a former deputy director of the Philippines National Police who lives in New York City, according to an FBI complaint unsealed with the arrests.

Aragoncillo, 46, of Woodbury, was hired to work at Fort Monmouth in July 2004 and began sending classified information and documents in January, according to the complaint.

From May to Aug. 15, Aragoncillo printed or downloaded 101 classified documents relating to the Philippines, of which 37 were classified "secret," the complaint said. Details of the documents' contents were not disclosed in court papers or in court.

The investigation by immigration authorities began after Aquino, 39, was arrested in March, accused of overstaying the tourist visa he used to enter the country in July 2001.

Aragoncillo, a Marine for 21 years, and Aquino were ordered held without bail following an appearance before a federal magistrate.

The defendants face a charge of conspiracy and a charge of acting as unregistered foreign agents, the latter of which carries a sentence of up to 10 years and a $250,000 fine. Aragoncillo also was charged with unauthorized use of a government computer, which carries a sentence of up to 10 years and a $250,000 fine.

[Mguy]

Sort of related. . .

May question of the day ang Philippine Star:

Did GMA allies get something in exchange for their vote against the impeachment?



I'm sure a lot of people will say yes to this question even if they don't have any piece of evidence. Kung baga, opinion lang nila ito and that is their belief.

Corruption is so entwined in our culture just like religion. You just believe it exists.

[BoEinG_747]

Sort of related. . .

May question of the day ang Philippine Star:

Did GMA allies get something in exchange for their vote against the impeachment?



I'm sure a lot of people will say yes to this question even if they don't have any piece of evidence. Kung baga, opinion lang nila ito and that is their belief.

Corruption is so entwined in our culture just like religion. You just believe it exists.

nice one ... sir Mguy