Taal Eruption 2020

[glenn_duke]

i'm not a geologist.
but i think the science of volcanology is still (for lack of a better word) crude.
even now, after all that's happened since sunday, the experts still can't say with certainty, what the volcano is going to do, next.

All monitoring instrument in Taal island were destroyed. Unlike Mayon, Taal is in a lake, you cant put instrument in water. All the other monitoring instrument are kilometers away from the crater. So theres a blind section which their intrument cant see. They rely now on modelling algorithm to fill these missing data, they cannot predict with certainty using non-factual data.

[oj88]

I don't know. The Americans didn't predict it either.

Actually, volcanologists of that era have been monitoring Pinatubo for months in advance leading up to the cataclysmic eruption as it was already giving off signs. They were fully aware that it was about to go off, except for one thing.... they are unable to determine the magnitude of the actual eruption until it happens.

But with the recent Taal eruption, apparently, there weren't any tell-tale signs of an impending eruption. It's the reason everybody was caught off-guard.

Fortunately, scientists from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and the U.S. Geological Survey had forecast Pinatubo's 1991 climactic eruption, resulting in the saving of at least 5,000 lives and at least $250 million in property.

Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/

[leonleon]

But with the recent Taal eruption, apparently, there weren't any tell-tale signs of an impending eruption. It's the reason everybody was caught off-guard.

Like I said earlier, Taal was a surprise, while Pinatubo was not.

That surprise added to the "panic" factor.

And the blame game and finger-pointing that govt officials are fond of doing.

Add:
But I read also that Phivolcs has been monitoring the Taal area for many years now.

Pero wala pa rin, di talaga nila natunugan yung Jan 12 na mangyayari.

[roninblade]

biggest volcanic eruption of the 20th century

i know this wasn't the point of your post but i just wanted to categorize the pinatubo explosion

[Yatta]

because we still have no way of looking at what's actually happening below where the magma is. all we can do is observe signs and events and make intelligent guesses/predictions based on scientific and historical data.

Seismic travel-time tomography, magnetotelluric resistivity imaging, etc. Indirect observations, but computationally intensive and not practical for quick/blow by blow warning.

Very difficult to enumerate/type here using a fone. But we have techniques to monitor a volcano's activity. Ground deformation (gps, edm, satelite interferometry, gravity, precise leveling), geochemistry, seismic, electeomagnetics, visuals, etc.

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[SoleusBB]

Ang alam ko, Taal was, and still is classified as an active volcano. Why they allowed the place to bedeveloped like that was a really dumb idea.

Its not a matter of if it will errupt, but when.

I remember some establishment, I don't know if resto ba yun or hotel, but it had pictures of the last major erruption, with some placards sayimg the next big one was overdue na.

Amd you have these sleazy real estate agents come up to you trying to sell you a condo or invest in a resort there noon.

[Yatta]

Like I said earlier, Taal was a surprise, while Pinatubo was not.

That surprise added to the "panic" factor.

And the blame game and finger-pointing that govt officials are fond of doing.

Add:
But I read also that Phivolcs has been monitoring the Taal area for many years now.

Pero wala pa rin, di talaga nila natunugan yung Jan 12 na mangyayari.

A simple check on the PHIVOLCS website and socmed accounts will show that Alert Level 1 has been declared over Taal since March 2019. Daily bulletins and warnings have been issued since then.

Question though, was anyone listening/reading? Communication is a 2-way street.

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[madball]

Mas madali daw manisi.

[glenn_duke]

Seismic travel-time tomography, magnetotelluric resistivity imaging, etc. Indirect observations, but computationally intensive and not practical for quick/blow by blow warning.

Very difficult to enumerate/type here using a fone. But we have techniques to monitor a volcano's activity. Ground deformation (gps, edm, satelite interferometry, gravity, precise leveling), geochemistry, seismic, electeomagnetics, visuals, etc.

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Yung reported fissures this morning are these arcuate or convex shape towards Taal or linear? Has anyone measured if there are traces of magmatic gasses coming from this fissures?

[glenn_duke]

Gene Akizuki Caralde
· Yesterday ·

Remember this great man? The younger generation may not know him, but this man is a hero. He saved millions of people from certain death when back in 1991, he and his team accurately predicted that Mt Pinatubo is going to erupt. Because of his insistence of a mandatory evacuation, the biggest volcanic eruption of the 20th century only killed a few hundred people when it could have wiped out the whole population of Central Luzon.

His name is Dr Ray Punongbayan. Don't ever forget it.

Ronjay Mosquete And the only man who said that the vicinity of Taal should never be habitable. And it turns out right after how many years of his death. Kudos!

Jomar Morales Gumboc nakumbinsi nia ang US military na iwan ang Clark Air Base
the balls of this man, kudos!

Roy A MaCaras katrabaho niya tyuhin ko si Dindo Javier sabay silang namatay sa chopper crash sa Nueva Ecija.

Odracir Airomat He dated my aunt when i was a kid hahaha

Parang iba recollection ko on what actually transpired inside that big army tent in Clark days before Pinatubo erupted. One thing sure ang daming big balls na nagbabangaan. Anyway past is past.

[leonleon]

A simple check on the PHIVOLCS website and socmed accounts will show that Alert Level 1 has been declared over Taal since March 2019. Daily bulletins and warnings have been issued since then.

Question though, was anyone listening/reading? Communication is a 2-way street.

Sent from my Mi A1 using Tapatalk

Yes, that's what I meant, PHIVOLCS was monitoring Taal for a few years now.

Or months?

But then Mayon has been on Alert 2 longer .... since 2018.

No urgency, right?

Taal's Alert 2 was raised just last Sunday.

But the urgency was there.

No one saw that coming.

P.S. Just to be clear I'm not pointing any fingers at Phivolcs.

[roninblade]

Seismic travel-time tomography, magnetotelluric resistivity imaging, etc. Indirect observations, but computationally intensive and not practical for quick/blow by blow warning.

Very difficult to enumerate/type here using a fone. But we have techniques to monitor a volcano's activity. Ground deformation (gps, edm, satelite interferometry, gravity, precise leveling), geochemistry, seismic, electeomagnetics, visuals, etc.

Sent from my Mi A1 using Tapatalk

thanks for the info. i never really followed that particular corner of tech.

[minicarph]

I think Philvolcs should be culpable. Below is the video na walang kahit anuman warning ang Philvolcs sa mga tourists or residents

Look at the video, particularly sa middle, andami pa bangka papunta sa crater even if umuusok na

How could they not detect it?




If you transcribe the video, the uploader said they were warned only by two men on horseback. WTF! Walang kwenta warning system

[leonleon]

I think Philvolcs should be culpable. Below is the video na walang kahit anuman warning ang Philvolcs sa mga tourists or residents

Look at the video, particularly sa middle, andami pa bangka papunta sa crater even if umuusok na

How could they not detect it?




If you transcribe the video, the uploader said they were warned only by two men on horseback. WTF! Walang kwenta warning system

Eh di ba trabaho yan ng LGU, bro?

Phivolcs warns, LGU's execute whatever needs to be done.

Hindi ba ganun?

Parang yung typhoon warnings.

PAG-ASA warns, LGU's suspends classes.

May pananagutan LGU, dyan.

[Yatta]

Yes, that's what I meant, PHIVOLCS was monitoring Taal for a few years now.

Or months?

But then Mayon has been on Alert 2 longer .... since 2018.

No urgency, right?

Taal's Alert 2 was raised just last Sunday.

But the urgency was there.

No one saw that coming.

P.S. Just to be clear I'm not pointing any fingers at Phivolcs.

These things can escalate very quickly like Taal now or can go slow like Mayon. Like an illness. Sometimes it can overtake the human mind as well as any equipment.

Taal has been monitored since the 1950s. Pagasa and Phivolcs are in a situation where if it issues a warning and nothing happens, people will deride them. And some people even find them an annoyance. E.g. hazard maps and stupid building codes are in the way of a sale and making profit.

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[minicarph]

Philvocs claims that they have sensors in place sa crater or maybe deep inside the lake to detect if may movement or may umiinit somehwere


If you check the video, the smoke came from not the lake crater, but from the beach dun sa lupa

If indeed there are sensors and they are working, dapat a day before pa lang nag bebeep na mga computers nila dyan Kasi sa Pinatubo, the Americans already knew of an imminent eruption and they were able to remove all air assets as well as mga equipments nila ahead of time

Ewan ko , parang clueless ang Phivolcs sa nangyari. And then maririnig mo sa news, na-predict daw nila. Pano? Eh kung na predict nila di dapat off-limits na yun lake at may evacuation na in place. Everyone was caught by surprise . ..

[marky2115]

You really blame PHIVOLCS for that? lol Sa tingin mo ba madaling mapaparating ng PHIVOLCS yung warning sa tourists and locals on that island na may volcanic activity na kasalukuyang nangyayari sa isang active volcano? lol

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[Devastator]

Here's a documentary of the '65 blast.

Rare Documentary! 1965 Taal Volcano Eruption September 28-3 1965 - YouTube

[leonleon]

These things can escalate very quickly like Taal now or can go slow like Mayon. Like an illness. Sometimes it can overtake the human mind as well as any equipment.

Taal has been monitored since the 1950s. Pagasa and Phivolcs are in a situation where if it issues a warning and nothing happens, people will deride them. And some people even find them an annoyance. E.g. hazard maps and stupid building codes are in the way of a sale and making profit.

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Agree, bro, hirap talaga trabaho na mag-predict.

Phivolcs has been warning about that fault line and people just keep on building on it.

And they'll probably get blamed when TSHTF.

Thankless job.

[roninblade]

i don't like this looking for blame when things haven't passed or settled down yet. especially when you're trying to pin the blame on the only agency that can give you meaningful info on the state of things. maybe they did drop the ball on this. maybe the situation just escalated too fast to do anything besides sending two people on horseback to give warning to people on the island.

if any of you followed the New Zealand White Island eruption last month this is almost the same thing - they had no warning at all of anything happening so there were people doing tours on the island when it exploded. there are lots of videos online. there were fatalities.

let's get through this first instead of distracting the people of phivolcs from doing their jobs.