Philippine Weather This Weekend---Heads Up

[Jun aka Pekto]

I stil prefer PAGASA. They actually forecast and have accountability. Everyone with internet access in the Philippines should visit PAGASA's web site regularly.

[Zeus]

Lumakas yung bagyo a, na sa 140 kph hanggang 170 kph yung lakas ng hangin, baka rin daw tumama o dumaan malapit sa Metro Manila yun bagyo!

Typhoon threatens Mindoro, Panay islands


[SIZE=2]Tropical Cyclone Frank (international code name: Fengshen) has moved westward for the past six hours and is now threatening Panay and the Mindoro area instead of Quezon province and the Ilocos region, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Saturday. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Typhoon signal no. 3 has been declared over Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Masbate, Burias Island, Calamian Group of Islands, Aklan, Northern Antique, Capiz, and Northern Iloilo. These places will experience winds of 100-185 kph, PAGASA said. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Typhoon signal no. 2 has been declared over Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Southern Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Palawan, Cuyo Island, Samar provinces, Biliran Island, Leyte, rest of of Antique, rest of Iloilo, Northern Negros Occidental, and Northern Cebu, the weather bureau said. Winds there will be at 60-100 kph.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]PAGASA said typhoon signal No. 1 has been lowered over the rest of Palawan, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, rest of Quezon, Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Metro Manila, rest of Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, rest of Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, and Dinagat Island.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In a press statement issued at 5 am, PAGASA said Typhoon Frank was located 70 kms south of Masbate province or 60 kms northeast of Roxas City, Capiz province. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Typhoon Frank has maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]PAGASA said the typhoon dumped 300 millimeters of rainfall over Catbalogan and Tacloban where winds reached 100 kph. In Roxas City, rainfall reached 153 millimeters where winds reached 75 kph. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In an interview over dzMM, Dr. Anthony Golez, spokesman of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) warned storm surges and flash floods may occur in provinces that will be hard hit by the typhoon. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Typhoon Frank is moving west northwest at 15 kph and by Sunday morning is forecast to be 70 kms West of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]If it continues on this path, by Monday morning it will be at 200 kms west northwest of Iba, Zambales and by Tuesday morning will be 370 kms west northwest of Laoag, Ilocos Norte.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Public storm signals in areas not mentioned have been lowered but residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides, PAGASA said. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]It has also issued warnings that Typhoon Frank might cause big waves and storm surges in the coastal areas covered by signal 2 and 3.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised by PAGASA to take appropriate action and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In an interview over dzMM, Department of Science and Technology Secretary Estrella Alabastro said provincial and municipal coordinating councils have been activated in the areas where the storm is expected. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]"I am confident we can cope," she said, citing increased level of awareness.[/SIZE]

Source:www.abs-cbnnews.com
June 21, 2008

[shadow]

I think lumihis na sa Metro Manila..based sa noon news

[shadow]

ito and projected track ni typhoon "Frank" ng different weather stations

[Monseratto]

Heard from the news that the province of Iloilo is hit by its worst flooding many has not seen for a long time. The media stations have recieved pleas for help when the flood water has reached roof levels, some victims were even clinging to trees...

MMDA braces for 'Frank,' expects typhoon's impact on Sunday
06/21/2008 | 12:45 PM

Email this | Email the Editor | Print | Digg this | Add to del.icio.us MANILA, Philippines - The Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) is now preparing for typhoon "Frank," which it expects to hit the metropolis on Sunday.

MMDA general manager Roberto Nacianceno said the agency's chairman Bayani Fernando ordered officials and rescue groups to report to MMDA offices at 7 p.m. Saturday.

"Expect natin by tomorrow morning darating ang storm ... Si Chairman pinapahanda ang rescue groups. We'll sleep overnight sa emergency center (We expect 'Frank' to hit Metro Manila Sunday morning. The chairman has ordered rescue groups to be ready. We'll sleep overnight at the MMDA emergency center)," Nacianceno said in an interview on Q-11 television.

Nacianceno said 10 trucks manned by MMDA personnel would be readied for Sunday. He said some 300 MMDA personnel will be on alert for those who would be affected by the typhoon.

He appealed to residents in low-lying areas to heed calls to move out of their homes if asked by MMDA teams. - GMANews.TV

[Jun aka Pekto]

ito and projected track ni typhoon "Frank" ng different weather stations

PAGASA seems to be following the CMA from Beijing.

I do recall the tropical storm that was the original subject of this thread, none of these models got it right. Some were too fast, others were too slow. Even the JTWC was varying way too much. It goes to show how tricky typhoon forecasting is.

[Zeus]

Signal number 2 sa M. Manila, lumakas pa lalo ang bagyo..na sa 160 kph hanggang 195 kph ang lakas ng hangin!

PAGASA: Typhoon 'Frank' intensifies further, moving towards Mindoro


[SIZE=2][SIZE=2]Typhoon "Frank" (international codename: Fengshen) has intensified further as it moves toward Mindoro, the country’s weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAGASA), said Saturday afternoon.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In its 5 p.m. weather bulletin, PAGASA said the eye of the storm has been spotted off the coast of Romblon, or in the vicinity of Tablas Island.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]'Frank' has maximum sustained winds of 160 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 195 kph, and is moving northwest at 11 kph.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Public storm warning signal No. 3 has been hoisted in Romblon, Marinduque, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, the Calamian Group of Islands, northern Antique, Aklan, and Capiz.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Signal No. 2 is in effect in Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Masbate, Burias Island, Albay, northern Palawan, Metro Manila, the rest of Antique, Iloilo, and Guimaras.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Signal No. 1, meanwhile, has been raised over Tarlac, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, southern Aurora, Sorsogon, the rest of Palawan, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Leyte, Bohol, and Siquijor.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]The typhoon will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western section of Mindanao, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides, the weather bureau warned.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm signals are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides, PAGASA said.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]It added that those living in coastal areas under signals 2 and 3 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by the typhoon.[/SIZE]
[/SIZE]

Source: www.abs-cbnnews.com
June 21, 2008

[Zeus]

PAGASA seems to be following the CMA from Beijing.

I do recall the tropical storm that was the original subject of this thread, none of these models got it right. Some were too fast, others were too slow. Even the JTWC was varying way too much. It goes to show how tricky typhoon forecasting is.

Yes, very tricky indeed 1st forecast said it is going the direction of Samar area, then bicol and out of pacific ocean. Now it is moving west North west, and base on the map graph, there's a lot of path, and the red path is a direct hit of M. Manila.

[Zeus]

Humina yung bagyo, na sa 120 kph na lang ang lakas ng hangin, pero papunta na yata sa direksyon ng M. Manila! Signal 3 na ang M. Manila! Ingat na lang tayo!

PAGASA: ‘Frank’ now likely to hit Metro Manila early Sunday morning


[SIZE=2][SIZE=2]Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces are now under public storm warning SIGNAL NUMBER 3 as typhoon Frank (international codename Fengshen) agaisn changed course and is now barreling its way towards southern Luzon, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAGASA) said Saturday evening.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In an emergency press conference at the National Disaster Coordinating Council at around 10:30 p.m. Saturday, PAGASA said the typhoon shifted its course and is now moving in a more northerly direction.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]"Matapos magtagal ng halos tatlong oras sa may Romblon, nagkaroon ng pagbabago, instead of moving towards Mindoro then South China Sea, nakikita natin na posibleng tumama sa Metro Manila, didiretso ng Zambales, bago pumunta ng South China Sea then lalabas ng Philippine Area of Responsibility," PAGASA weather forecasting division chief Nathaniel Cruz said.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]"Likely it will pass all over Metro Manila. Base sa current directions, sa Metro Manila dadaan between 5 a.m. to 6 a.m., but before that, mararamdaman na ang pag-ulan at pabugsu-bugsong hangin. We may expect flooding," PAGASA Director Prisco Nilo said.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]"[The] center of typhoon Frank [ay] sa may Romblon at nagkaroon ng konting pagkabasag ang kanyang circulation kaya bahagyang humina," Cruz added.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]In its 11 p.m. weather bulletin, PAGASA said the eye of the storm has been spotted 70 kilometers (km) southeast of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro, or 100 km south-southeast of Batangas City, and is moving at a northwesterly direction at 15 kilometers per hour (kph).[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]"Frank" has slightly weakened and now has maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph, Cruz said.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Storm signals[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Public storm warning Signal No. 3 has been hoisted over Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, Bataan, Quezon province's Bondoc Peninsula, and Metro Manila.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Signal No. 2 is in effect in the Calamian group of islands, Burias Island, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, the rest of Quezon, Polillo Island, Bulacan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, southern Aurora, Antique, Aklan, Capiz, and Sibuyan Island.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Signal No. 1, meanwhile, has been raised over northern Palawan, Masbate, Ticao Island, Albay, the rest of Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Sorsogon, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]The typhoon will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western section of Mindanao, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides, the weather bureau warned.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm signals are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides, PAGASA said.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]It added that those living in coastal areas under signals 2 and 3 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by the typhoon. [/SIZE]
[/SIZE]

Source: www.abs-cbnnews.com
June 22, 2008

[Zeus]

Ito na yata ang direction!

[chua_riwap]

At around 4 - 4:30AM, malakas na hangin here in Cavite......

Nag-change course pala itong si Pareng Frank.

[Zeus]

dito na yata bagyo sa M. Manila! na gising ako sa mga sipol ng hangin, lakas na ng hangin galing North east! wala naman ulan

[Jun aka Pekto]

The current conditions and forecast for Ninoy Airport:

-----------------------------------------------------------
RPLL 212000Z 32026G39KT 8000 RA SCT020 OVC090 25/24 Q992 CONTUS LGT RA TEMPO 32030G55KT 5000 +RA RMK A2930
RPLL 212000Z 212106 33025KT 6000 RA SCT018 OVC080
TEMPO 2103 03030G55KT 4000 +RA FEW009 SCT018 OVC070 TN24/22Z TX25/03Z
-----------------------------------------------------------

39 knots is 72 kph. 55 knots is 102 kph.

Their current forecast calls for 25 knots (46 kph) sustained winds all day with gusts of 102 kph from 5am until 11am along with heavy rain.

You guys (and gals) hunker down over there. 50 knots (93 kph) is normally the threshold for what is considered life-threatening winds because of what such winds can pick up and hurl towards you like a jagged piece of corrugated roofing for instance. I feel for those without robust shelters.

[Zeus]

The current conditions and forecast for Ninoy Airport:

-----------------------------------------------------------
RPLL 212000Z 32026G39KT 8000 RA SCT020 OVC090 25/24 Q992 CONTUS LGT RA TEMPO 32030G55KT 5000 +RA RMK A2930
RPLL 212000Z 212106 33025KT 6000 RA SCT018 OVC080
TEMPO 2103 03030G55KT 4000 +RA FEW009 SCT018 OVC070 TN24/22Z TX25/03Z
-----------------------------------------------------------

39 knots is 72 kph. 55 knots is 102 kph.

Their current forecast calls for 25 knots (46 kph) sustained winds all day with gusts of 102 kph from 5am until 11am along with heavy rain.

You guys (and gals) hunker down over there. 50 knots (93 kph) is normally the threshold for what is considered life-threatening winds because of what such winds can pick up and hurl towards you like a jagged piece of corrugated roofing for instance. I feel for those without robust shelters.

Yes, I can't sleep because there's non stop howling of wind here right now! but there's no rain

[chua_riwap]

Hupa na yung hangin, dito sa Cavite. Mga 6:30AM tigil na. Ulan naman pumalit.

[usong725]

humupa konti yung hangin. ngayon sobra ulit lakas may kasama na hanging. flight pa naman namin 8am to hongkong. cancelled na kya mga flights? brownout pa naman dito sa amin at sobra hirap tumawag cebupacific

[Jun aka Pekto]

The last few hours of weather observations from Ninoy Airport:

RPLL 212300Z [SIZE=3]240[/SIZE]28G40KT 2000 RA BKN020 OVC090 26/25 Q993 CONTUS MOD RA RMK A2933
RPLL 212200Z [SIZE=3]250[/SIZE]34G44KT 4000 RA BKN020 OVC090 26/25 Q991 CONTUS LGT RA TEMPO +RA RMK A2927
RPLL 212100Z 31030G46KT 8000 RA SCT020 OVC090 26/25 Q990 CONTUS LGT RA RMK A2924
RPLL 212000Z 32026G39KT 8000 RA SCT020 OVC090 25/24 Q992 CONTUS LGT RA TEMPO 32030G55KT 5000 +RA RMK A2930
RPLL 211900Z 33020G30KT 8000 RA SCT020 OVC090 25/24 Q995 INTMT LGT RA RMK A2939
RPLL 211800Z 34014KT 8000 SCT020 OVC090 25/24 Q997 TEMPO 7000 RA RMK A2945


The winds shifted southwesterly at 2200z/0600am Manila local time. That would indicate the center of the typhoon is somewhere north of Manila. Or maybe to the east. It's difficult to say without more observations from other areas. But altimeter/pressure is starting to go up. I'm inclined to think it's north of Manila.

With a southwesterly wind direction...... Guess what's to the southwest? Lots and lots of atmospheric moisture and an intensified southwest monsoon, aka heavy rain. That typhoon will suck them all in towards western Luzon. Watch for flooding as well as broken power lines and potholes.

Add: 2000 meters is about a mile and a quarter. If that's all rain and not mist/fog, that's some pretty heavy rain. I'm not sure what variation of the METAR code PAGASA uses. But, if that was here, I'd have it 2000 +RA.

2000 meter visibility is something I normally associate with fog or snow although I've seen visibilities as low as 200 meters from downpours. Those things just makes my jaw drop in amazement.

Olongapo's observations show the pressure still going down and the winds still from the northwest. So, "Frank" is still approaching that area:

RPLB 212300Z 34014KT 9000 FEW018 OVC080 28/23 Q0997 LGT SHRA
RPLB 212200Z 02004KT 5000 FEW018 OVC080 26/22 Q0997 LGT SHRA
RPLB 212100Z 02010G20KT 9000 SHRA FEW018 OVC080 25/22 Q0998 LGT RASH
RPLB NIL
RPLB 211900Z CALM 9999 FEW018 OVC080 26/22 Q0999
RPLB 211800Z CALM 9999 FEW018 OVC080 25/22 Q0999

[Monseratto]

Bilis ng Tsikot ngayon. Dami ata walang kuryente...

Typhoon 'Frank' whips MM; headed now for Central Luzon

Strong gusts and rains whipped Metro Manila Sunday early morning as Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that the center of Typhoon "Frank" (international codename Fengshen) passed the nation’s capital.

"As of 6 o'clock, ito po ay nasa vicinity ng Metro Manila. Medyo humina po siya but iyong mahina na iyon is still 120 kilometers per hour near the center, gustiness 150 kilometers per hour. Tumatakbo po north northwest at 15 kph," said Nathaniel Cruz, PAGASA weather forecasting division chief said in a press conference past 7 a.m.

"Typhoon 'Frank' passed Quezon City 6 o'clock ngayon pong umaga. Nearest to Metro Manila, napakalapit po. 20 kilometro lamang silangan at 4:30 a.m.," said Cruz.

He said gusts of 100 kph were recorded at PAGASA-Department of Science and Technology station in Quezon City.

[_Cathy_]

Now I don't know if I should still go to Greenhills to attend a birthday party at 12 noon. I'll be coming from Makati kasi. Does EDSA get flooded ba? Yung garden kasi naman disaster na but my friend who's also from Makati told me that she'll still be going to Ghills. hehe.

[usong725]

pansin ko din, sobra bilis ng tsikot forum. load kagad mga pages