World economy talk

[travajante]

Isn’t it still about the brexit bruh?


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Hope you're not among the brexit men, ray bai. Those who promise to pullout but never do nor intend to.[emoji13]

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[ray_noel]

yes coz a victory by that Boris guy means brexit gets done

Same thoughts...

Hope you're not among the brexit men, ray bai. Those who promise to pullout but never do nor intend to.[emoji13]

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just like the romance novel trav bai... promises are made to be broken... haha...


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[SpinCycle]

I guess the world views the Conservative party as more stable than the Corbyn-led Labor party.

I only realized yesterday that Commonwealth citizens living in the UK also get to vote in the General elections.


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[StockEngine]

I guess the world views the Conservative party as more stable than the Corbyn-led Labor party.

I only realized yesterday that Commonwealth citizens living in the UK also get to vote in the General elections.


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The labor party is in name only. Voters wanted change and they got it. I hope the new leadership does well.

France's Macron is next.

[Monseratto]

Unlike the first deal that fell apart last June, the Chinese aren't"forced" to comply by changing their laws... Trumpey agreed to deal to satisfy his farmer voters, which is costing $28 billion in bailouts.

So who actually blinked?

Even if the Chinese purchases do materialize, Lighthizer acknowledged that the U.S. would continue to buy substantially more from China than it sold to Chinese customers — a trade deficit that the president often has vowed to close.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...umps-sign-off/

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[uls]

In the short term China won

Nothing changed

China still gets to preserve its export-oriented economic system

Big picture -- Trump didn't achieve his goal of bringing manufacturing back to the US

The trade war did make companies move manufacturing out of China but not to the US

US trade deficit with the rest of the world didn't change

--

How about the farmers?

US farmers were doing fine before the trade war

They were happily selling to China and China was happily buying

Then Trump decided to start a trade war and US farmers became collateral damage

So this deal only got things back to what it was before the trade war

That isn't a victory

That's basically bringing things back to normal

[Monseratto]

Because of diversification of it's agricultural suppliers, China did not even commit to pre-trade war agricultural import levels. I guess China is doing the same thing to other sectors in it's economy, seeking out other growth markets other than the US.

So far, China has offered no public indication of how much in agricultural goods they would purchase. The U.S. has pressed for a fixed number. But even a large guaranteed buy would be unlikely to exceed former levels of exports. Across all agricultural categories, the U.S. sold $25.9 billion to China in 2015. In 2018, that number was down to $9.2 billion.

During talks, Chinese negotiators have been unwilling to commit to blanket amounts, saying they would only agree to "market demands," Bhala noted. China has widely diversified its suppliers of agricultural products, spending more with export nations in Europe and South America.

"I find the irony rich that when it's been a [U.S.] bedrock principle for years, for decades, to let the market drive trade, the Chinese are pushing back on [a non-market-based fixed] number," says Nicole Lamb-Hale, a managing director at risk consultancy Kroll and a former U.S. International Trade Administration official in the Obama administration. "This deal is an emaciated deal—it isn't even skinny."

Phase One Trade Deal Between the U.S. and China Is '''No Victory,''' According to the Markets | Fortune

[uls]

yeah and if China resumes buying US soybeans they'll have to reduce or stop buying from other suppliers and that will damage China's relationship with those suppliers

that's why China doesn't wanna commit

[uls]

i don't follow UK election

whatever is going on it's positive for GBP

round trip for GBP

[uls]

^^^

why did this happen?

even if nobody's interested i'm gonna post anyway coz i'm bored

when the conservatives (Tories) won the narrative was that Boris Johnson would become more centrist

GBP rallied coz the market believed the narrative that Johnson would make the break from the EU not very painful

then today news came out that if there's no deal by end of 2020 there will be a hard brexit

that's why GBP fell

If you're a forex trader this just reminded you why forex trading is hard

you can draw lines on charts all day

you can be updated on politics

but sh#t happens parin

times like this can turn people into conspiracy theorists

you'd be thinking HEY there are people out there... sophisticated people... who have more information than retail traders

[ray_noel]

^^^

why did this happen?

even if nobody's interested i'm gonna post anyway coz i'm bored

when the conservatives (Tories) won the narrative was that Boris Johnson would become more centrist

GBP rallied coz the market believed the narrative that Johnson would make the break from the EU not very painful

then today news came out that if there's no deal by end of 2020 there will be a hard brexit

that's why GBP fell

If you're a forex trader this just reminded you why forex trading is hard

you can draw lines on charts all day

you can be updated on politics

but sh#t happens parin

times like this can turn people into conspiracy theorists

you'd be thinking HEY there are people out there... sophisticated people... who have more information than retail traders

Our instructor before (broker) informed us that when they failed to predict such dip parang sign na yun sa kanila na aalis na being broker... mag reretire na daw.... hehehe...

Sh#t happens = retirement sa kanila... hehe


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[Monseratto]

Sarap mag-resign... For doing a bad job.

Muilenburg was eligible for $39 million US in cash severance, stock and bonuses based on Boeing's stock price of $322.50 at the end of last year, according to a Boeing securities filing. The stock closed Monday at $337.55.

Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

[istan]

Pwede na sya hindi magtrabaho... ever.

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[uls]

the US killed someone important to Iran

risk off sentiment now

JPY strongest across the board

[Monseratto]

Just A reminder....

[uls]

market is concerned about escalation / war

seeing more signs of risk off / flight to safety

the US 30Y treasury is bid

[dreamur]

Just A reminder....

What trump is thinking...

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[Egan101]

market is concerned about escalation / war

seeing more signs of risk off / flight to safety

the US 30Y treasury is bid

Iran will never get itself into a shooting war with the US. It will continue its proxy war of funding terrorists to attack vulnerable sites of US interests.

Iran is facing the gauntlet of a nuclear spear that can lay waste to the whole country. It is the same reason why Iran will not commit to a shooting war with Israel. Unlike Syria who knows that in the case that Israel uses nukes against them, the fallout will still impact the Jewish state.

[uls]

yes i know Iran won't go to war with the US

i'm interpreting market sentiment based on movement in asset prices

safe haven assets are in demand today

US Treasuries, precious metals

there's fear

[benchph1]

Fuel prices will definitely increase because of this. Tsk tsk tsk


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