World economy talk

[uls]

Tawag ngayon ng Generation X is Generation U for unemployed/underemployed. Trending in many developing countries, many 20-30s are still living or returning to live with their parents, some with families of their own. Many adults are delaying or foregoing marriage and children because of financial realities. Many of the growing unemployed are college degree holders.

and baby boomers can't retire. they don't have money to retire

[Ry_Tower]

^ sad but true. Sama mo na dyan mga OFW na hindi nagturo sa mga relatives dito na magtipid at mag-invest ng tama.

[uls]

from Greece newspaper Ta Nea

3 scenarios

ΔÏ?ο Î*ξοδοι κινδÏ?νου και Î*νας εφιάλτης - Ελλάδα

Τρία είναι τα σενάρια για την Ελλάδα μετά τη λήψη των νέων επώδυνων μέτρων της κυβέρνησης, χωρίς να αποκλείεται ούτε αυτό της ελεγχόμενης αναδιάρθρωσης του δημόσιου χρέους με «κούρεμα» κατά 50%.

Αυτό τουλάχιστον υπονόησε χρησιμοποιώντας ιδιαίτερα προσεκτικές διατυπώσεις ο αντιπρόεδρος της κυβέρνησης Ευάγγελος Βενιζέλος στην πολύωρη προσπάθειά του να εξηγήσει στους βουλευτές του ΚΤΕ Οικονομικών του ΠΑΣΟΚ την κατάσταση στην οποία βρίσκεται σήμερα η οικονομία. Μιλώντας με δραματικούς τόνους στη συνεδρίαση του ΚΤΕ, που διήρκεσε περί τις πεντέμισι ώρες, αναφέρθηκε σε τρία πιθανά σενάρια που συνδέονται με τις οικονομικές εξελίξεις στη χώρα μας.

ΤΟ ΚΑΛΟ Είπε ότι το καλό - πρώτο - σενάριο αφορά την κύρωση και εφαρμογή της συμφωνίας της 21ης Ιουλίου, που προβλέπει μεταξύ άλλων αναδιάρθρωση του χρέους με κούρεμα ομολόγων της τάξεως του 20%.

ΤΟ ΚΑΚΟ Το χειρότερο - δεύτερο - σενάριο είναι να μην προχωρήσει η συμφωνία με την τρόικα και η χώρα να οδηγηθεί σε ανεξέλεγκτη χρεοκοπία - πρόκειται για τον κίνδυνο στον οποίον αναφέρθηκε κατά τη συνάντησή του με τον Πρόεδρο της Δημοκρατίας με αναφορές στην Αργεντινή.

ΤΟ ΚΑΛΥΤΕΡΟ Το τρίτο σενάριο, που ενδεχομένως να είναι το λιγότερο οδυνηρό, σχετίζεται με την παραμονή της χώρας στην ευρωζώνη και της ελεγχόμενης αναδιάρθρωσης του χρέους με «κούρεμα» κατά 50% (όπως άφησε να εννοηθεί ο κ. Βενιζέλος). Σε μία τέτοια περίπτωση, θα έχει προηγηθεί η ανακοίνωση των μέτρων της επόμενης τριετίας από την κυβέρνηση και η ψήφιση του προϋπολογισμού. Πρόκειται για σενάριο στο οποίο γίνονται πλέον καθημερινές αναφορές από διεθνείς παράγοντες και το οποίο εξασφαλίζει τη βιωσιμότητα των Ταμείων και των τραπεζών, ενώ διασφαλίζει τις καταθέσεις με χρηματοδότηση την ΕΚΤ.

translated:

Three scenarios for Greece after taking painful measures the new government, not excluding even that controlled the restructuring of public debt "haircut" of 50%.

This is at least implied using very careful wording, the Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos on long trying to explain to members of the CTD Finance PASOK the situation of today's economy. Speaking with dramatic tones in the meeting of the TRC, which lasted approximately five and a half hours, was reported in three possible scenarios associated with economic developments in our country.

GOOD He said that good - first - scenario of ratification and implementation of the Agreement of July 21, which provides, inter alia debt restructuring to cut debt of around 20%.

THE BAD The worst - the second - scenario is not to proceed with the agreement with the Troika and the country led to an uncontrolled bankruptcy - is the risk to which stated during his meeting with President of the Republic reports in Argentina.

THE BEST The third scenario, which may be the least painful, associated with the eve of the country in the euro zone and controlled the restructuring of debt "haircut" of 50% (as hinted Mr. Venizelos). In such a case would have preceded the announcement of measures for the next three years by the government and the adoption of the budget. This scenario are now daily reports by international factors and that ensures the sustainability of funds and banks, while guaranteeing the deposits to finance the ECB.

[Monseratto]

Yung problem is when a country usually is in trouble, they can devalue their currency. Can they do that with the Euro? All those 'carefully worded' scenarios will surely be declared as sovereign default. Patay yung guarantors ng Greek CDS any which way...

Moody's downgrades 8 Greek banks - Houston Chronicle

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Moody's ratings agency downgraded eight Greek banks by two notches Friday due to their exposure to Greek government bonds and the deteriorating economic situation in the debt-ridden country, whose government has struggled to meet the terms of an international bailout.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded National Bank of Greece, EFG Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank, Agricultural Bank of Greece and Attica Bank to CAA2 from B3. It also downgraded Emporiki Bank of Greece and General Bank of Greece to B3 from B1.

The agency said the outlook for all the banks' long-term deposit and debt ratings was negative.

Moody's cited "the expected impact of the deteriorating domestic economic environment on non-performing loans" and "declines in deposit bases and still fragile liquidity positions" in its reasoning for the downgrade.

Greece has angered its international creditors by lagging behind in its commitments to implementing reforms and carrying out pledges it has made to secure funds from its €110 billion ($149 billion) bailout from other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund.

[Monseratto]

From a positive naging negative trend yung Dows Futures, European Markets resumed their slide on opening. Will be a sad holiday season for many this early...=P

[uls]

rumor France preparing TARP-like program

[uls]

re gold

where is the selling pressure coming from?



european banks

[tidus1203]

(Reuters) - Swiss bank UBS's Chief Executive Oswald Gruebel resigned on Saturday, shouldering the blame after its scandal-hit investment banking business lost $2.3 billion in alleged rogue trading.

The bank, which said it would beef up risk controls under an accelerated restructuring of that part of its business, named its Europe, Middle East and Africa head Sergio Ermotti to replace Gruebel on an interim basis.

UBS CEO quits, board wants faster restructuring | Reuters

[uls]

^^

dapat lang

the trader is probably a fall guy

UBS rather blame trading losses on a "rogue" trader than admit horrible performance of its investment bank unit in Q3

[uls]

preparations are being made for Greece default

priority now is recapitalizing banks

they will not let Greece default before mechanisms are in place

default probably Nov or Dec

they'll keep Greece funded thru Oct

Greece will not leave EU

[eld]

^ sad but true. Sama mo na dyan mga OFW na hindi nagturo sa mga relatives dito na magtipid at mag-invest ng tama.

Isa pa yang mga OFW mismo. Akala mo kung sinong mga milyonaryo kung makapadala ng kung ano-ano. Pag uwi de Benetton bag and iPhone eh waiter or japayuki lang naman abroad (yes, I know such people.)

[Monseratto]

NYMEX Crude breaks US$ 78.00



Don't expect a rollback soon. Peso depreciated like the Euro too.



Gold still dropping like a rock...



Also for those watching the PSEi, the market looses nearly 10% since Friday. Loosing 4.32% today alone. Wiping out any gains for the whole year.

[tidus1203]

China’s yuan may become a fully convertible currency in five years, said Li Daokui, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China.

As the flexibility of the yuan increases in the coming five years, China will have more market-determined interest rates and will further open up its capital account, Li said at a forum in Washington.

If reforms go on smoothly, “the renminbi will be fully convertible in five years,” he said, referring to the Chinese currency.

China has accelerated the use of the yuan in international trade and investment to curb its reliance on the dollar. A fully convertible currency - so the yuan can be exchanged with other currencies without restrictions - is one of the criteria the U.S. and Europe are demanding from China as a condition for allowing it to be part of the International Monetary Fund’s currency basket.

Yuan

Ever since I started trading, I was always waiting for this day. Still very bullish on the CNY!

[uls]

re gold plunge

no QE3

margin calls

fund redemptions

[uls]

re local stocks

hot money continue to leave emerging markets

[uls]

re Europe

no agreement yet on bailout fund increase

[tidus1203]

re local stocks

hot money continue to leave emerging markets

Too bad for the local only traders, wala silang SHORT SELLING. Kailangan palakasan pa para lang mag short sell...

[uls]

???????-?????

关于调整白银Ag（T+D）合约保证金比例及涨跌停板的通知
2011年09月26日 【字号　 大 中 小】

各会员单位：

白银Ag(T+D) 合约9月23日收盘时封住跌停。根据《上海黄金交易所风险控制管理办法》的相关规定，如Ag(T+D)合约 于9月26日（周一）收盘时继续同方向跌停（即出现第二个连续单边市），自当日日终清算时起Ag（T+D） 合约的保证金比例从15%调整至18%，下一交易日起Ag（T+D）合约涨跌停板幅度限制从12%调整至1 5%。

请持有该合约的会员和客户提前做好相应的保证金追加准备。


上海黄金交易所
2011年9月26日

打印

translated:

On the adjustment of silver Ag (T + D) ratio and price limits margin contract notice
September 26, 2011 [font 　 big in small】

Member Unit: silver Ag (T + D) contract 9 months 23 days close to seal the lower limit. According to "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Measures" of the relevant provisions, such as Ag (T + D) contract on 9 March 26 (Monday) close to limit the same direction (ie, a second consecutive unilateral City), end of the day from the date of liquidation from the Ag ( T + D ) contract margin increased from 15% adjusted to 18% , the next trading day Ag ( T + D ) contract price limits range limit from 12% adjusted to 15% .


Please hold the contract to members and customers well in advance to prepare the corresponding margin calls.


Shanghai Gold Exchange
2011 years 9 months 26 days

[uls]

shadow banking in China

China inflation --> formal banking system tighten credit --> businesses couldnt get loans --> turn to underground credit --> demand for underground credit grows --> money leaves formal banking system --> bank deposits shrink --> money goes to underground banking system for higher returns

[ame]www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5iHOfBdKG4[/ame]

[uls]

^^^ related

Subprime crisis sweeps Wenzhou as bankrupt bosses flee -- Shanghai Daily | ???? -- English Window to China New

Subprime crisis sweeps Wenzhou as bankrupt bosses flee

THE east China city of Wenzhou is battling its own subprime crisis after seven local business owners fled recently, leaving thousands of employees in a state of shock and enormous unpaid loans in hundreds of millions of yuan.

Most of the runaway bosses who have disappeared since September 12 are in the manufacturing industry, according to today's National Business Daily. Each of them had borrowed hundreds of millions of yuan from banks and private creditors.

Subprime lending in Wenzhou, the cradle of China's private economy, has been booming since the country tightened its money supply late last year to curb soaring inflation. State-owned banks are ordered to stick to a mandatory loan-to-deposit ratio and are reluctant to offer loans to small firms like those in Wenzhou over default risks.

The closed door to bank borrowing has forced some business owners to turn to private lenders, mostly illegal, despite the higher costs of their loans.

But when their business failed to perform as expected and it became obvious that the bankrupt business owners would not be able to pay their debts, some decided to flee.