World economy talk

[uls]

net long oil and gold

net short corn, soybean complex



btw, this was before the correction in oil prices last week

[wowiesy]

net long oil and gold

net short corn, soybean complex



btw, this was before the correction in oil prices last week

pag sinabing long ibig sabihin buy di ba? and short is sell?

paano naging ganun?

[uls]

sorry i don't know how the use of those words originated

meron difference pala

buying/selling is the act, being long/short is the position or bet

[uls]

Barron's: FB stock is worth $15

[uls]

net long oil and gold

net short corn, soybean complex

correction re this post. i was looking at net change. should have looked at net positioning

players liquidated long positions in corn and soybeans but still net long

Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 9/24/2012 - NASDAQ.com

The Commitments of Traders reports as of September 18th showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 323,841 contracts, a decrease of 13,001 contracts for the week and the long-liquidation selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable combined traders held a net long of 223,004 contracts, down 26,150 for the week. The record long position ever held by these traders is 366,547 contracts. Trend-Follow Fund positions (Non-Commercial net of index funds) were pegged at 214,070 contracts which were down by 25,803 contracts for the week and well below the record long position ever held at 372,756 contracts.

[wowiesy]

sorry i don't know how the use of those words originated

meron difference pala

buying/selling is the act, being long/short is the position or bet

so a long position means hold on to your stocks or buy..

and a short position means let go and / or sell?

[uls]

so a long position means hold on to your stocks or buy..

and a short position means let go and / or sell?

yup. you bought betting the price will go up. that's being long

short -- you sell a stock you don't own (borrowed from your broker) betting the price will go down. you buy it back when the price falls. you close the short position by buying. but when the price goes up you still have to buy it back coz you have to return what you borrowed

[wowiesy]

yup. you bought betting the price will go up. that's being long

short -- you sell a stock you don't own (borrowed from your broker) betting the price will go down. you buy it back when the price falls. you close the short position by buying. but when the price goes up you still have to buy it back coz you have to return what you borrowed

nalito ako sa short... so far ito pagkaintindi ko:

as a broker, you have stocks to trade.. but you don't necessarily own the stocks.. you just manage the stocks for your clients... so that part about selling a stock you don't own... nasundan ko pa... ..

assuming i'm the broker.. i sell a stock i don't own.. at a certain price .. higher price i presume.. since i am betting that the price would soon go down... so if i sell a stock at a higher price now.. hoping to buy it back later at a lower price.. i somehow make a profit... somehow that's illegal here in Philippine setting (PSE)... but if I bet wrong and the price goes up (instead of down as I was hoping).. i still have to buy that same number of stocks because in the first place, they weren't mine to trade.. hahanapin pa rin yun ng mga rightful owners ng stocks since i'm just a broker... so in buying at a higher price than what i sold it for... i end up losing money..

but if i'm not a broker... i am a direct investor (say retail stocks) and have direct access to the market through online services... how does it apply to me?

[uls]

no wait...

i'm the client of the broker

the broker has inventory of stocks. i can borrow stocks from the broker. if the broker doesnt have the stock i wanna borrow the broker can borrow the stock from other clients (who are long the stock). a broker can also borrow from other brokers

assuming i'm the broker..

^^^ ?? the client is the one who's selling the borrowed stock. the broker is the lender

i = client. let's continue...

i sell a stock i don't own.. at a certain price .. higher price i presume.. since i am betting that the price would soon go down... so if i sell a stock at a higher price now.. hoping to buy it back later at a lower price.. i somehow make a profit...

^^^ correct. that's how you make money shorting a stock

but if I bet wrong and the price goes up (instead of down as I was hoping).. i still have to buy that same number of stocks because in the first place, they weren't mine to trade..

^^^ correct

hahanapin pa rin yun ng mga rightful owners ng stocks since i'm just a broker

^^^ ?? you the client not you the broker

so in buying at a higher price than what i sold it for... i end up losing money..

^^^ correct. that's how you lose money shorting a stock

but if i'm not a broker... i am a direct investor (say retail stocks) and have direct access to the market through online services... how does it apply to me?

^^^ you are the client not the broker. long and short positions allow clients to bet whichever direction prices go

that's why it doesnt matter to traders when prices are falling. they can make money on that too

as long as there's price movement in either direction traders can make money

that's why traders love high volatility (large price swings in either direction)

[uls]

but if i'm not a broker... i am a direct investor (say retail stocks) and have direct access to the market through online services... how does it apply to me?

btw, even if you trade online you still go thru a broker. those online services like citiseconline, 2tradeasia etc are brokers

[wowiesy]

no wait...

i'm the client of the broker

the broker has inventory of stocks. i can borrow stocks from the broker. if the broker doesnt have the stock i wanna borrow the broker can borrow the stock from other clients (who are long the stock). a broker can also borrow from other brokers



^^^ ?? the client is the one who's selling the borrowed stock. the broker is the lender

i = client. let's continue...



^^^ correct. that's how you make money shorting a stock



^^^ correct



^^^ ?? you the client not you the broker



^^^ correct. that's how you lose money shorting a stock



^^^ you are the client not the broker. long and short positions allow clients to bet whichever direction prices go

that's why it doesnt matter to traders when prices are falling. they can make money on that too

as long as there's price movement in either direction traders can make money

that's why traders love high volatility (large price swings in either direction)

okay.. it is all on the presumption that a client can "borrow" a stock he doesn't own... but that isn't allowed locally right?

so how can that be done here in the local setting?

wala ako enough extra cash to put in foreign markets... still trying to learn how to play it well sa local setting...

i think i've lost a lot na from the local bourse... di ko rin ma monitor on a day to day...

[uls]

locally di pa yata allowed

[wowiesy]

^^^ you are the client not the broker. long and short positions allow clients to bet whichever direction prices go

that's why it doesnt matter to traders when prices are falling. they can make money on that too

as long as there's price movement in either direction traders can make money

that's why traders love high volatility (large price swings in either direction)

that is good in the environment na allowed mag short ng stocks (or whatever traded commodity in an exchange for that matter)... but here locally.. you make money thru stocks either thru dividends lang ng shares that you own.. and selling at a higher price right? or there is a way to play short in the local environment?

specially if i have my own account at say.. citisec or philstocks...

[Monseratto]

Apple sold 5 million IPhone 5 last weekend...

Apple (AAPL -1.33%) had a record-breaking weekend, selling 5 million iPhone 5 units in the first three days of its launch -- 1 million more than during the iPhone 4S launch last October. However, the iPhone producer missed the lower end of most analyst estimates for its weekend launch; sales were predicted to be between 6 million and 10 million units.

Why did Apple miss expectations?

It appears that the fears of Apple's supply constraints for the new smartphone materialized. CEO Tim Cook acknowledged this in a press release, saying, "We have sold out of our initial supply." He also said that "demand for the iPhone 5 has been incredible and we are working hard to get an iPhone 5 into the hands of every customer who wants one as quickly as possible." Apple is still taking orders for the iPhone 5 online. (You can view the Apple press release here.)

Analysts also believe a scarcity of units caused the sales miss. According to the AP, Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White said the miss occurred because of limited supply. He said 80% to 85% of U.S. Apple stores had run out of the phone by Sunday evening, and some Apple stores did not know when their next shipment would arrive. Gene Munster of PiperJaffray (who estimated that 8 million iPhone 5s would be sold this past weekend) identified two factors impacting the sales number. Munster assumed that Apple would include all pre-orders in the sales number released today. The pre-orders that did not get filled may have added an additional 1 million units to the sales number.

He also assumed that 8 million phones would be sold if Apple had full inventory for the entire weekend. Instead, Apple stores had 1.25 days of retail inventory compared to 2.5 days of retail inventory for the iPhone 4S launch. CNN Money lists the comments of Munster, White, and two other analysts here.

Apple's retail partners were undersupplied for the launch. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Apple sent limited quantities of the iPhone 5 to Best Buy (BBY -1.12%), RadioShack (RSH +4.08%) and other partners. Apple stores have had a higher stock of iPhones in the past, but the difference seemed more pronounced this time.

Some Best Buy stores received as few as 10 phones for the launch compared to others that received as many as 40 phones. RadioShack also reported receiving a scant amount, with a Chicago store only receiving 20. The Target (TGT -0.44%) store outside San Francisco said it only received eight, but customers had pre-ordered 30.

Retailers have emailed customers saying that their pre-orders will be filled when a new shipment arrives. However, many sales representatives at retail stores throughout the country do not know when this will occur. A Target store in Chicago received only one additional phone to sell on Saturday.

Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee, estimates that Apple is producing between 550,000 and 600,000 iPhone 5 units per day during its December quarter, with more than a third expected to reach U.S. stores. Wu stated that his firm is not overly concerned with the "disappointing" iPhone 5 sales number. Sterne Agee believes that near-term expectations were out of touch with reality.

The iPhone 5 will go on sale in 22 more countries on Friday.

Shares of Apple were down 1.4% Monday afternoon to $690.49.

Apple breaks records... and disappoints?- MSN Money

[uls]

that is good in the environment na allowed mag short ng stocks (or whatever traded commodity in an exchange for that matter)... but here locally.. you make money thru stocks either thru dividends lang ng shares that you own.. and selling at a higher price right?

yup either dividends or capital gains

or there is a way to play short in the local environment?

not that i know of

i think the PSE already drafted rules re short selling but the govt hasnt allowed it yet

[uls]

money moving out of



moving into

[Monseratto]

The long drought spell in America's bread basket raised soy and other feed prices... the dominoes are starting to fall.

Bacon Shortage in the Coming Year Deemed Inevitable
September 25, 2012 at 10:48AM

All the bacon fanatics out there had better start stockpiling because the seemingly never-ending pork trend might be forced into decline. An industry trade group calls a pork and bacon shortage for the coming year "unavoidable."

According to the Los Angeles Times, the National Pig Association in Britain recently released information in a press release about declining pig herds across the European Union. They also confirmed that the trend, "is being mirrored around the world." Smaller herd sizes are thought to be a direct result of the high costs of feed, which was caused by a drought that devastated corn and soybean crops this year.

Smaller herds mean less pork, which will lead to higher prices. In fact, The National Pig Association believes that midway through next year the number of pigs slaughtered could fall 10 percent, and despite being a relatively small number, prices of European pork would double as a result.

In the U.S. the supply of pork was at a record high last month, at 580.8 million pounds. However, this figure was measured right around the time when farmers began scaling down their herds due to increased feeding prices. Will the infamous bacon trend — that has landed bacon in everything from ice cream to vodka — be brought to an end by shortages and increased prices? Only time will tell.

What do you think will be the result of increased bacon prices? Will the bacon trend finally meet its end?

[uls]

QE-euphoria gone

FT:

US stocks fell, while demand for US Treasuries rose late in the session in New York, as investors worried that the latest round of additional stimulus by global central banks may fail to boost economic growth. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 1 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 1.4 per cent, led lower by declines in Apple shares. The S&P rose earlier in the session, helped in part by some better-than-expected US consumer confidence and house prices data. But that support waned as demand for Treasuries also picked up, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down 4 basis points to 1.67 per cent – a level last seen before the Federal Reserve announced it would continue to buy government-backed bonds for an indefinite period of time.

^^

US 10 yr yield is now below Sept 13 QE3 announcement

[uls]

as if Spain doesnt already have enough problems...

BARCELONA (AFP) - Catalonia Tuesday called snap elections over its drive for greater independence, deepening Spain's crisis as its government struggles to avoid a full-blown bailout.

Catalonia's President Artur Mas demanded "self-determination" for the region, raising pressure on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy who has urged that the country stay united as it fights to secure its public finances.

[Monseratto]

Germany teetering towards recession.... Emerging Markets unable to sustain high growth... US January Fiscal cliff fast approaching...What else could be worst?

WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the International Monetary Fund on Monday called on government leaders in Europe and the United States to take urgent action in dealing with a faltering global economy.

“This time we need a sustained rebound, not a bounce,” said IMF chief Christine Lagarde. “If this time is to be different, we need certainty, not uncertainty. We need decision makers to be real action takers. We need delivery.”

Lagarde said the global economy was gradually recovering but that the IMF projects growth will likely be weaker than anticipated.

In a speech to the Peterson Institute for International Economics in advance of next month’s annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Tokyo, Lagarde said, “Uncertainty in the eurozone remains the greatest risk to the global economy today.’”

She said European leaders must deliver on commitments made June 29, including establishing a single supervisory bank and enabling the direct recapitalization of banks.

Lagarde said the tepid recovery under way in the United States risks going off track if its leaders do not find a way to avoid plunging off a fiscal cliff when deep government spending cuts and tax increases take effect in January. She said this could bring about another recession and harm the global economy.

“The current uncertainty presents a serious threat to the United States and, as the world’s largest economy, for the global economy,” she said.

She said countries with emerging economies, who were “a light in the darkness” and able to lead the global economy in its time of need, were now slowing down and should focus on countering vulnerabilities whether domestic or external.