World economy talk

[uls]

we are beginning the week with Brent crude up more than $1 at $113.53, WTI also up more than $1 at $99.55

[uls]

Mons:

Another domino?

yes it's spreading

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small non-violent protests were reported in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich eastern province last Saturday despite the $36B social benefit program announced by King Abdullah last week

[tidus1203]

Bernie Madoff calls the government a huge PONZI SCHEME. I guess if anyone knows what it really is, its HIM! AND I AGREE with Madoff! Social Security is the BIGGEST PYRAMID SCHEME in the world! It CANNOT PAY ALL ITS OBLIGATIONS and soley rely on new entrants to pay for old obligations. A bankrupt system indeed!

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street swindler Bernard Madoff said in a magazine interview published Sunday that new regulatory reform enacted after the recent national financial crisis is laughable and that the federal government is a Ponzi scheme.


"The whole new regulatory reform is a joke," Madoff said during a telephone interview with New York magazine in which he discussed his disdain for the financial industry and for its regulators.


The interview was published on the magazine's website Sunday night.
Madoff did an earlier New York Times interview in which he accused banks and hedge funds of being "complicit" in his Ponzi scheme to fleece people out of billions of dollars.


He said they failed to scrutinize the discrepancies between his regulatory filings and other information.


He said in the New York magazine interview the Securities and Exchange Commission "looks terrible in this thing," and he said the "whole government is a Ponzi scheme."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Madoff...&asset=&ccode=

[Monseratto]

Better get out now and fill your tanks to the brim while there's time. Mataas itong fuel hike...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...around-p2liter

Oil firms to hike prices by around [size=5]P2/liter[/size]
By Zen Hernandez, ABS-CBN News
Posted at 02/28/2011 8:21 PM | Updated as of 02/28/2011 8:21 PM


MANILA, Philippines - There is no stopping local fuel retailers from hiking prices as the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa continues to threaten oil supply, the Department of Energy (DOE) said on Monday.

Small oil players Eastern Petroleum and Phoenix Petroleum already announced their price adjustments that will be effective 6 a.m. Tuesday, March 1.

Eastern Petroleum will increase prices across the board by P2 per liter.

Phoenix, on the other hand, will hike gasoline and diesel prices by P1.25 and P1 per liter, respectively.

Other firms are expected to follow suit.

"Malaki ang impact on pricing and we are doing our best to mitigate... We appealed for oil companies to implement increase on a staggered basis," said Department of Energy Director Zenaida Monsada.

Dubai crude has gone up by $8 per dollar.

ABS-CBN News sources said this would translate to P2.65 per liter increase in the price of gasoline and P2.22 for diesel.

If the hefty increases are implemented, transport group Alliance of Concerned Transport Operators or ACTO will seek another fare hike for jeepneys.

"Ggayon ay P8 (minimum), gagawin naming P9.50," said ACTO President Efren de Luna.

Another group, PISTON, is challenging the Aquino administration to impose an oil price freeze.

Lawmakers earlier proposed to grant President Aquino emergency powers to help address a possible oil crisis stemming from anti-government movements convulsing in oil-producing Libya and most of the Middle East.

"Whether we grant the President emergency powers or not, if he acts in order to protect our citizens abroad and to serve the interests of this country, the Senate will support him," Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile said.

But the President is not too keen on the idea.

"I was made to understand that there [are] substantial funds with OWWA [Overseas Workers Welfare Administration] that can be utilized for this purpose. I think the Secretary of Energy has been briefing constantly on our attempts to mitigate the price increase," he said.

[uls]

US aircraft carrier Enterprise is now in the Suez on the way to Libya.

US, UK considering military intervention against Gaddafi

[Monseratto]

US aircraft carrier Enterprise is now in the Suez on the way to Libya.

US, UK considering military intervention against Gaddafi

The first thing they'll secure will be the oilfields...

[jhnkvn]

US aircraft carrier Enterprise is now in the Suez on the way to Libya.

US, UK considering military intervention against Gaddafi

I thought the UN frowned at governments intervening in domestic issues?

*Saudi issue

Bribery it is but I still believe life here is harder compared to that in Saudi. And the price of their gas is....

*thread
Past news na: Saudi ramp up production to cover for Libyan disruptions. Pero tama si uls, the question now is whether there would be additional disruptions.

Speculative buying masyado sa oil. Major oil players still has plenty of inventories last time I checked in Q4 2010. In the future 2 years, I believe this should be a medium spike on the oil prices historically. Too risky to start shorting oil IMO as short-term worries should persist for months.

[uls]

Saudi Arabia sends tanks to Bahrain

update: Bahrain says there are no Saudi tanks in the country

[uls]

Brent $115.42, WTI $100.24

Saudi authorities detained a Shiite cleric, increasing the risk of Shiite uprising in the country

protests in Tehran

fear of oil supply disruption driving oil prices higher

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Saudi risk:

Saudi Arabia is majority Sunni. Shiite minority are treated as second class citizens

most Shiites live in the Eastern Province

guess where Saudi Arabia's main oil and gas fields are located -- in the Eastern Province

[uls]

Saudi stocks

Tadawul All Share Index


wealthy Saudis pulling money out of the stock market in fear of potential unrest

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Dubai stocks

DFM General Index

[Monseratto]

Makes me glad I got rid of my gas-guzzling Camry.

NYMEX and Brent painful ascent continue...



http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...71192R20110302

Brent crude settled 93 cents higher at $116.35 a barrel, the highest settlement since August 21, 2008, off the session high of $117.81. The Libyan crisis spurred Brent to a 2-1/2 year high near $120 a barrel on February 24.

U.S. crude futures settled at $102.23 a barrel, up $2.60, ending above $100 for the first time since September 2008. U.S. oil also found some support from U.S. Energy Information Administration data showing a drawdown in U.S. oil inventories.

Crude had pared gains in the morning after EIA data showed inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contract hit a record high.

SPREAD NARROWS

Brent's premium against U.S. crude narrowed to above $14, after touching a record $17.12 on Tuesday. High inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude has kept a lid on U.S. oil price gains this year, sending the spread to a series of all-time highs.

"It seems like the spread gets out there to $16 and then you see some sellers trying to take some profit and the EIA news was a little bit bullish for U.S. crude as well," said Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst for optionsXpress in Chicago.

Oil prices hit their highest levels since August 2008 last week on Libya's outages and worries regional production could be hit should similar uprisings develop in other producers in the Middle East and North Africa.

This week, the rebound in oil prices in the wake of violence in Libya has sent other commodity prices rising. Gold reached a record high as buyers looked for safe havens amid political instability.

Safe Haven...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...71G2KM20110302

(Reuters) - Gold ended flat on Wednesday after hitting a record high above $1,440 an ounce on safe-haven buying spurred by political unrest in Libya, surging oil prices and testimony by the Federal Reserve chief that kept investors expecting U.S. monetary policy to stay loose.

Gold has rallied 10 percent since late January when tensions began to flare in the Middle East and Africa. Muammar Gaddafi on Wednesday launched a land and air offensive to retake territory from rebels in Libya's eastern region, and the possibility of a prolonged civil war fueled bullion demand as a hedge against uncertainty.

"You have political problems all over the world, a Federal Reserve bank that still erred on the side of easing rather than tightening, rising commodities prices in general, and growing disdain for fiat currencies generally," said Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter, a daily investment newsletter.

"It will be illogical for gold not to be going higher," he said.

Gold's record close on Tuesday confirmed that its long-term uptrend has resumed, and the next technical resistance level is near that rising trendline at $1,487 an ounce, CitiFX said.

[tidus1203]

Mukahang mabubuhay nanaman negosyo ng LPG Installers hehehe... After the 2008 oil bubble and the subsequent crash ang daming LPG Installers nag-sara mga big boys who cater to taxis na lang yung natira...

[uls]

Trichet said the ECB could raise interest rates next month

[tidus1203]

Yeah about time... US and Japan will have to wait a whole lot longer. Hell, Japan might have to stay here maybe for another decade!

On the US front, stocks rallying after jobless claims (benefits for unemployed) reported at a 3 year low boosting optimism for tomorrow's non-farm payroll...

[uls]

it's jobs friday. estimate +185,000

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Brent $115.88, WTI $102.56

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Portugal 10 yr yield


i think Portugal will ask for bailout this month

[uls]

+192,000 new jobs

official unemployment rate 8.9%.

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WTI $ 103.28

[uls]

oil facility south of Benghazi damaged, on fire

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Saudi Arabia protest

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG2OTzx_K4E"]YouTube - ‫جمعة الØ*شد 1 مظاهرات مسجد الراجØ*ÙŠ 4 مارس Saudi Arabia Revolution‬‎[/ame]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckCZXVy2vcQ"]YouTube - ‫مظاهرات الاØ*ساء اØ*تجاجا على اØ*تجاز الشيخ توÙ?يق العامر‬‎[/ame]

[uls]

reports of massive buying of US Treasuries from the Middle East

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Tadawul Index

[uls]

Brent $115.97, WTI $104.42

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http://www.facebook.com/pages/%D9%8A...32423410159822

[uls]

US treasuries rally on Middle East safe haven demand

2 yr note


5 yr note


10 yr note


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the big one -- the elephant in the room -- is Saudi Arabia

nevermind Libya. Libya's supply disruption is already priced in

watch Saudi Arabia

when protests gain momentum in S.A., we could see oil above $120